Road to Royal Ascot, 2023

Britannia
Ramazan ran a blinder in a 518k 2yo race in Ireland,and has been saved for this according to his trainer (SL) since a pipe-opener at York.
Should relish this stiff 1m, and I've taken Coral's 28/1.
 
I had a very profitable Tuesday but no bet yesterday. Today..singles and a double on Bertinelli and Coltrane and a hail mary small stakes ew super yankee on Davideo, Emily D, Drumroll, Docklands and Rhoscolyn.

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Speaking of Rhoscolyn, when did that fvckin gamble start?

It was 33s when I did my figures on Tuesday. It's into 11/1 tops.
 
A lot of high profile tipsters have put up Rhoscolyn

Not a lot of interest today. I backed Bluestocking ante-post for the Ribblesdale with the thought that the Oaks fillies wouldn't run and you'd get a manageable relatively uncompetitive race like last year. Instead there's like seventeen fillies running and a monster looking fav. So that hasn't worked out that well. Not that hopeful but Crowley rides the fav and like I've said before, he's got beat on the best horse in this race before.

I have the two James Ferguson "Legend" horses in a couple of multis. Wonder's form was franked by Westerton at the weekend and "Land" went in my tracker after his York run behind Chesspiece. I can't justify a normal bet on the latter as he does tend to get behind in his races and that is death here.

I do like Subjectivist at the price in the Gold Cup. There's back to lay possibilities with him. I respect the favourite and he's the likeliest winner but I can never have a Varian as a shorty in a Group race and Courage Mon Ami is a heinous price. Don't like anything else in the race.

The Britannia looks impossible. I'll have a small interest in Royal Cape who hit the line hard behind the group horse Covey in the Silver Bowl.
 
To the naked eye Elite Rascal won the National Stakes like a real champion sprinter.

The worry is the 2nd and 3rd were beaten more than twice as far in the Windsor Castle
and the National Stakes might just have been a very poor renewal.

American Rascal is bred in the pink by Curlin out of Lady Aurelia who won both the Queen Mary and the Kings Stand.
His one run at Keeneland was very impressive winning hard held by 10 lengths but again what did he beat?

With land and seas between them it's way too hard for me to work out so I have backed both with a decent profit if either should win.


I liked the way Valiant King 8/1 won at Navan. The further they went the easier he was going. Should be hard to keep out of the places here.
 
Bit disillusioned after yesterday so changed my marker pen back to the one I used on Tuesday and have also moved to the conservatory to see if that picks things up....:whistle:

And then I looked through the card and thought “oh god, it’s even harder today!” The ex (who’s a pro punter and quite good at it although I will never let on that I think that) is refusing to answer the phone :mad:

Race 1
Utmost respect for Elite Status but watching American Rascals Race, my jaw dropped....that’s rare and I’m not a WW fan. Have a little ew on Malc too (name, trainer etc.)

Race 2
Bertinelli, Desert Hero and Valiant King all popped up in my tracker so they will do.

Race 3
I have stuck in a tricast the top three but also ew on Mama Joon as I do remember the ex going on about Er before the Oaks and she didn’t run badly on only her second start.

Race 4
Emily and Eldar...bit worried about the Appleby form? Adayar ran well but looked flat beforehand and some of his have run a bit below what I would have expected this week.

Race 5
Three year old handicaps are probably the hardest race to pick the winner of...always an unexposed Group horse in there
Carracci and Fort Vega (slightly sentimental because Sheila has had a rough time recently on social media)

Race 6
Caernafon ran big in the Oaks and I will look nearer time at something else

Race 7
Rhoscolyn is in my tracker so I’m peeved that his price has gone. Croupier and Lir Speciale But that was only after a very quick glance.

Definitely not on my A game this week but it goes like that. I had a cracking year last year so due a poor one.
 
Hi everyone, hope you are all doing well.

Tough cards today, on various permutations (left side of the / are on the same multiples, likewise the other side.
:

His Majesty/Malc
Valiant King/cloudbreaker
Village voice/lumiere rock
Trueshan/subjectivity
Ramazan
Rhoscolyn/croupier

Also a small each way bet on red riding hood, just something itching at me that it is one of O'brien's games that he likes to play. Can't have one of his that big a price.
 
Well, thanks to two truly inspired selections from highly-esteemed members (and it could have been three with Outsider's Sonny), I go into Day 3 with high hopes even though my own selections have failed (so far) to deliver.

So...

Race 1...On the face of it, Richard Hannon is having a torrid time. But...on Day1, most will not have been fully suited by any give in the ground. Haatem got close enough, though. So Baheer (I'm guessing) is up in the 100s because Heather's came in stone last in the Coventry. Although Baheer got trounced at Newbury, Hannon does rate him and they have no idea what happened. Logically, you can't see him winning, but - if you take the view that Zoulu Chief didn't give true running - it is possible he can outrun the big prices. It could turn out Hannon was wrong all along, of course.

Meehan's Toca Madera could outrun his odds.

At the top end, I don't think Paddy Twomey would be wasting a trip and Noche Magica looks interesting.

Wouldn't be a surprise to see any of the other half dozen at the top of the market scoot in, ofc.


Race 2 ... I'm taking Johnston's Cracksman filly Crackovia to land this en route to a group race career at 12f +

Race 3... No clue, really. But if Maman Joon is up in the 60s or 70s, she's probably the one.

Race 4... Interest only

Race 5... Like the look and feel of Benacre. Believe the yard think he's a level or two above this with time (and probably more distance). But this should be strong run, and JS might be one of those with running left in the last 100 yards. There's a chance that Andy Oliver's and Sheila Lavery's can do something here and get in the frame (met before with Fort Vega finishing a couple of lengths up). Tough, tough race almost certainly best left alone. But finding the group racer is always fun, right.

Race 6... Impossible, but if Canberra Legend is up in the 40s, a few pennies to see if the Dante form was wrong.

Race 7... Spirit of Light and Rhythm Master against the field for pennies
 
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Saturday, Jersey Stks - Olivia Maralda 9/1, 5 places - the one to beat on all the adjusted figures and five places is a serious safety net. You can get 10/1 to four places if you're less of a shiter.
 
Even looking at it now with the knowledge it won Im not sure anyone can find a reason to back it. I think had His Majesty broke better and been on the winners side of the draw I think it would have won. I'll be backing him again in the future.
 
reet hard said:
I trust your judgement,Jinny - so have had a few quid on the yank.
Click to expand...

Hugely disappointing there and many including Jason will have had their fingers well burnt. I did spot his tongue was going Blue as the tongue tie was way too tight and gather Bobby MacEwen (the vet and formerly my vet too) did loosen it. There’s a possibility that this could be a reason behind his poor run.

I did have a quid on Malc each way and he ran huge! :lol:

Completely agree re His Majesty. He was a lovely individual in the paddock and is the one to take from the race.
 
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So much for UK jockeyship.

That pace was plain amateurish. They hit 10.8 in one of those early furlongs.

No wonder the principals were ridden by the best jockeys: Marquand, Murphy, Moore, Shoemark (whom I rate); Dettori there too.

Typing while you were posting, Frankel :)
 
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Well that was rather nice! Looks like my tracker is rather useful! And no I didn’t even consider the tricast!
 
James Ferguson needs *******. You have a horse who's slow out of the gate - er, he's a trainer - train it out of them. Lost 4 lengths at the start, came with a massive run, got boxed in.
 
The pace was suicidal early on and couldn’t not collapse.

Delighted that the Royal winner wasn’t ridden by Dettori. Think Marquand was quite overcome.
 
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