Road to the 1000 Guineas

SteveM said:
Taking Camelot with you and letting Homecoming Queen go is exactly what you should be doing.
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Yeah because if Camelot went another 4f he would of continued accelerating through every furlong.

He's still yet to prove he can stay 12f and continue to accelerate after a strong even gallop - I take it Aidan has plans to go America with him but I'm afraid he will be finishing nearer last than first unless he can start showing he can produce decent times because at the moment he's had it easy and he's had it all his own way.

At least we know Homecoming Queen is genuine and that she can burn off pretty much any 3 year old in her sights this year.

By the way have you ever walked a furlong? sounds like you haven't.
 
Damn, Savage you're back and talking a lot of nonesense as usual but please dont let me stop you. Nice winner with Amazing Blue Boy by the way
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Yeah because if Camelot went another 4f he would of continued accelerating through every furlong.
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Wrong again Bruce. See the 2,000 Guineas thread. The filly was slowing (as she was entitled to) while the colt was quickening. i.e. the colt was improving relative to the filly the further they went.
 
SteveM said:
Wrong again Bruce. See the 2,000 Guineas thread. The filly was slowing (as she was entitled to) while the colt was quickening. i.e. the colt was improving relative to the filly the further they went.
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Do you have trouble reading?

Homecoming Queen would beat Camelot over a mile every time they met, not quite sure where you're getting at regarding expecting Homecoming Queen staying further? who really expects her to get further than a mile.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Do you have trouble reading?
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Honestly I do often tend to have trouble with the stuff you put up Bruce. It's like goalposts in shifting sand. EC1 made the mistake of engaging with you, which is just what I'm doing now... It's a pointless and fruitless exercise...............................
 
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SteveM said:
Honestly I do often tend to have trouble with the stuff you put up Bruce. It's like goalposts in shifting sand. EC1 made the mistake of engaging with you, which is just what I'm doing now... It's a pointless and fruitless exercise...............................
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I sincerely apologies for the way you feel about me but maybe you see me as an intellectual challenging proposition that puts you into discussions you're uncomfortable with or engages in directions of thought processing that you've never ventured to in horse racing and the safe option when in fear of the unknown is to but your defensive guard up.

I feel strongly that Camelot is one of the most overrated 2000 Guineas winners and horses we've seen on these shores and will fight my opinion to the hill just like you'll fight your opinion that he's the greatest colt to come out of Ballydoyle.

I will have to end this debate because we're only going to have mass derailment.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
I feel strongly that Camelot is one of the most overrated 2000 Guineas winners and horses we've seen on these shores and will fight my opinion to the hill just like you'll fight your opinion that he's the greatest colt to come out of Ballydoyle.
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Fight fair then, Bruce; and don't go inventing statements people never made, eh? :)
 
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Gareth/Steve

Timeform went 124 on the winner of the One Thousand Guineas. A bit more on it and the rest of HQ can be seen here for those interested.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
So what she done was a visual illusion? :blink:

If she had Maybe's form figures instead of 63965431210-91 then I think people would be calling her the next coming of something special.

Then again she does have them form figures you can't get away from that but what you also must bear in mind anything she on on Sunday wasn't a fluke and if she has that in her locker then she's the best filly we've got.

Everything she has done on Sunday was better than Camelot from the final time, sectionals, performance, running style but people won't give her credit.

The form of the 1000 Guineas looks more credible than that of the 2000 Guineas yet it looks likely that people are going to take Camelot with them throughout the season and let Homecoming Queen go..

I would rather be taking on Camelot all day every day.
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Can't quite believe I'm saying this but Bruce makes a lot of good points here. I disagree that Camelot is substandard but at the same time, he wasn't as fast in the finish as Steve makes out, FF was actually quicker in the final furlong. Camelot won the race between the 3f and 1f pole but the sectionals show, he was slower than 4 other horses on the Saturday card in the final three furlongs. Homecoming Queen's winning margin obviously flattered but even if she was value for half the winning distance, she will be a big player in races like the Falmouth and Rothschild. O'Brien isn't one to pitch his fillies in against the boys either.

I think Camelot would comfortably beat Homecoming Queen over a mile but I would definitely rather have £1 on the filly in each start this year over the colt as she's going to be hugely under rated off the back of this showing.
 
I think circumstances conspired to give HQ a slight advantage but she still had to go and do what she did.

Whichever way you cut it she put up a group 1 distaff performance. You just don't win classics by 9 lengths without being a bit useful!!
 
Gamla Stan said:
I would definitely rather have £1 on the filly in each start this year over the colt as she's going to be hugely under rated off the back of this showing.
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She's not going to be underrated unless you genuinely believe the form of Sunday's race.
 
She ran to a timefigure of 120 on Sunday, I find it hard to believe that she'll be priced as if that's the case next time.
 
A 120 time figure is well up to snuff for this race - I think only Finsceal Beo recorded a better one in recent years?
 
Remember Peeping Fawn? It took her seven races as a 3yo to get going yet ended up nearly unbeatable. AOB not afraid to run them, say that much for him. I feel sorry for the ones trying to beat her off 72 at Fairyhouse last sept. Mrs Mcardy ran eight times as a 2yo in 1976 before winning 1000gns including a few nurserys. Finsceal Beo ran in a Tralee nursery after being injured. Sceptre famously was trained and punted on for The Lincoln before winning 4 classics! lost The Derby as she was short a gallop! Any more classic winners that ran in nurserys anyone?
 
She didn't quite win a classic (2nd and 4th in the two she ran in), but Alexander Goldrun ran in 5 nurseries - winning only one! - before going on to win Group 1s all over the world and ending up with £1.9m of winnings.
 
Bollin Eric won at the Leger meeting two years on the bounce, a nursery off 87 twelve months before his Classic win. Treasurer Beach ran in two nurseries before winning the Irish Derby.
 
davidjohnson said:
Gareth/Steve

Timeform went 124 on the winner of the One Thousand Guineas. A bit more on it and the rest of HQ can be seen here for those interested.
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Thanks David. 124 seems a fair squaring of the circle to me. The RPR was a little lower on 121.

I note also that Camelot gets a 123p, the RPR is also 123, which I would also say is about right.

It's pretty obvious to me that Camelot is better than his current rating. I doubt the filly is much better, if any better, than hers though as she has run to her extent in conditions that suited her.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Can't quite believe I'm saying this but Bruce makes a lot of good points here. I disagree that Camelot is substandard but at the same time, he wasn't as fast in the finish as Steve makes out, FF was actually quicker in the final furlong.
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It’s true that Camelot and French Fifteen ran similarly in the second half of the race. But from halfway (final two quarters) Camelot finished faster than any horse in the race. At halfway FF was 14th and Camelot a place behind in 15th. Camelot covered the final three furlongs in 12.01, 12.11 and 13.09, with FF closing a fraction in the final furlong.

In contrast Homecoming Queen was first at the end of each of the eight furlongs and despite running a couple of seconds faster overall, ran
the final three furlongs in 12.32, 12.60 and 13.82

Therefore, Camelot ran the final three furlongs in 37.21 (French Fifteen in 37.32) and Homecoming Queen in 38.02.

So when Bruce says "Everything she [Homecoming Queen] has done on Sunday was better than Camelot from the final time, sectionals, performance, running style" this is not true. Camelot finished his race faster than the filly, even though overall she ran a couple of seconds faster. This is because Camelot started more slowly and finished from off the pace. This is not my opinion but what actually happened.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
she's going to be hugely under rated off the back of this showing.
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I think she's more likely to be overrated due to the visual impressiveness of her victory, which is why I'd be against her on anything other than soft going.

I also think that Sheikh makes a seriously good point in that Ballydoyle/Coolmore realise this is what she is and may well not race her again unless everything is in her favour.
 
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