Road to the 1000 Guineas

Euronymous said:
As much of a farce as when Speciosa won. Oh, and **** you Godolphin. Incompetance beyond measure.
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One of theirs, possibly Discourse, really wasn't travelling at any point. Legs were all over the place, not sure if it was the ground or something amiss but never looked happy. Didn't see much of the other one. The winner did well I thought, kicked away from them twice. Be interesting to see how she gets on for the rest of the season.
 
Two seconds faster than Camelot. Suited by the conditions, yes. Got the run of the race from the front, yes. Might the result be different on another day? Very possibly. But fluke is too strong a word, she has to be very good to have done that.
 
Maybe the delay contributed so some horses underperforming but my gut instinct is take a positive view of the winner.
 
At the moment she is a 3/4 sister to Dylan Thomas winner of the 1000G
not bad at all for the breeding


form to treat with caution
but very likely she will prove the best of this field at the end of the season.
 
Euronymous said:
As much of a farce as when Speciosa won. Oh, and **** you Godolphin. Incompetance beyond measure.
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Speciosa was the best of that field and only had to replicate her rockfel and trial form to win the guineas
it was not the greatest of edtions but I have seen some worse fillies than her win the guineas in the last 20 years
 
I don't see how you can take anything away from the winner. Early on I thought, they'll swallow her up soon enough - shes a little filly who is slightly running with the choke out. Also she had been the most buzzy down at the start during the long delay (so maybe she kept her muscles warm whereas the rest didn't?)

I was expecting the first two in the betting who were travelling well, to pick up and rell her in. There were plenty who really didn't enjoy the ground - the Godolphin pair are big and a bit gangly and Discourse looked very unhappy from an early stage. Possibly they are still a bit on the weak side.

The winner is tiny but she does have an improving pedigree being a half-sister to Dylan Thomas and a huge huge heart. She's won me over!
 
There are all sorts of scenarios that would lead me to question the value of the form and fillies-only races can produce iffy results at the best of times but the winner went out at what looked a true pace, quickened three out and then again after that and they weren't reeling her back in late on.

Even assuming those in the bunch behind the places ran to about 100 - decent handicap form - she's still given them a 20lbs beating.

For the time being, I'll be rating her one of the better Guineas winners but Gareth's observation may be very pertinent. Nevertheless, rating the second as having run no better than her OR puts the winner on at least 118.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Looks like Timeform's provisional rating is 128!
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Not necessarily. Timeform operate an automated handicapping process to take a fair bit of the legwork out of handicapping, particularly fiddling about with pounds per length scales, race standards etc. The 128 at present is merely what the autorate has come up. The time analysis compared to the 6f handicap certainly doesn't back up going that high.

Given the race looks a damn site harder to put a satisfactory figure on that the 2000 which was straightforward to rate, Timeform will be chewing it over and confirming the rating tomorrow via the Handicappers' Corner blog on betting.betfair.
 
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