Road to the 1000 Guineas

The Gosden animals in second and fourth have stamina elements to their pedigrees. Surely something can come out of the race and be a factor for the Oaks?
 
Holy Roman Emporer deserves that seeing as he was rushed to stud to cover for George Washington and surely was unlucky Banimpire was pipped in Irish Oaks . Nice to see a cracking racehorse pass on that never say die attitude and interesting to hear AOB say how they keep improving which makes one wonder how good a 3yo HRE might have been.
 
I backed Homecoming at leop when she won as she looked fit and the others where carrying condition.Fire lily nearly got to her but ran out of gas. Obviously homecoing came on again for that run but I don't believe she came on the the ton that the result today would suggest instead i think she and other lighly framed horses where able to get over the ground without getting stuck in it and the results of both Guineas where a tad freakish and should be taken with a large pinch of salt when looking for future winners.
 
Correct although obviously it was just the ground which stopped half of them running to form which will be turned around through the season.
 
the Fugue ran a good trial but was struck into and may not make the oaks

starscope they are talking about the coronation stakes soi she may not be aimed at the oaks
 
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Grim scenes at Newmarket yesterday. It took the shine off the racing. Connections of Gray Pearl will be devastated.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There are all sorts of scenarios that would lead me to question the value of the form and fillies-only races can produce iffy results at the best of times but the winner went out at what looked a true pace, quickened three out and then again after that and they weren't reeling her back in late on.

Even assuming those in the bunch behind the places ran to about 100 - decent handicap form - she's still given them a 20lbs beating.

For the time being, I'll be rating her one of the better Guineas winners but Gareth's observation may be very pertinent. Nevertheless, rating the second as having run no better than her OR puts the winner on at least 118.
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The race looks a puzzle with regard to form. Not least that the first and second were the two not originally loaded. Whatever the variables Ryan seized the initiative and pulverised them. I won't be looking for her to do this on better ground in other races though.
 
davidjohnson said:
Not necessarily. Timeform operate an automated handicapping process to take a fair bit of the legwork out of handicapping, particularly fiddling about with pounds per length scales, race standards etc. The 128 at present is merely what the autorate has come up. The time analysis compared to the 6f handicap certainly doesn't back up going that high.

Given the race looks a damn site harder to put a satisfactory figure on that the 2000 which was straightforward to rate, Timeform will be chewing it over and confirming the rating tomorrow via the Handicappers' Corner blog on betting.betfair.
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I don't blame Timeform for wanting to chew it over. I'd hate to rate this race. Whatever they come up will be criticised.
 
Euro, you have to be the most bitter loser ever when it comes to this race! You moan every year yours gets beat in the event. :D

My three bets came 14th, 15th and 16th but I aren't convinced the winner is to be knocked on second viewing. At first, I thought it was a farce but I think she's a late improver and the track really suited her, they'd be mad to take her to Ascot though. Needs keeping to front running tracks and the Falmouth/Rothschild are the obvious targets for her in the Summer.

My only complaint with the race is that they didn't send the field back to the paddock/stables when it became apparent that they were going to have to put a horse to sleep in the stalls infront of the entire field. Surely must have distressed some of the other fillies and if it had been my call, I'd have sent the field back and ran the race at the end of the card.
 
I think she'll struggle without an uncontested lead, soft ground to keep the pack at bay and a jockey keeping her just the right side of too fast without being overly conservative, but for all that she had those advantages yesterday I think her performance on the day was for real regardless of how hard it will be to duplicate.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Euro, you have to be the most bitter loser ever when it comes to this race! You moan every year yours gets beat in the event. :D

My three bets came 14th, 15th and 16th but I aren't convinced the winner is to be knocked on second viewing. At first, I thought it was a farce but I think she's a late improver and the track really suited her, they'd be mad to take her to Ascot though. Needs keeping to front running tracks and the Falmouth/Rothschild are the obvious targets for her in the Summer.

My only complaint with the race is that they didn't send the field back to the paddock/stables when it became apparent that they were going to have to put a horse to sleep in the stalls infront of the entire field. Surely must have distressed some of the other fillies and if it had been my call, I'd have sent the field back and ran the race at the end of the card.
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Agree with all this. I think she's a monster.

Don't understand the negativity towards her.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I think she'll struggle without an uncontested lead, soft ground to keep the pack at bay and a jockey keeping her just the right side of too fast without being overly conservative, but for all that she had those advantages yesterday I think her performance on the day was for real regardless of how hard it will be to duplicate.
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Yup I think it was her day and there may not be more of them at Grp 1 level unless it keeps pegging rain of course but a thoroughly admirable performance all considered. With her bloodlines they needn't do another thing with her.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I think she'll struggle without an uncontested lead, soft ground to keep the pack at bay and a jockey keeping her just the right side of too fast without being overly conservative, but for all that she had those advantages yesterday I think her performance on the day was for real regardless of how hard it will be to duplicate.
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I can only agree with this. She seems a long way from a monster to me. She's exposed, but suited by the conditions and the advantage gained by her rider's initiative in picking up the pace and taking her where the fastest ground was. She's a filly that's struggled to run to a rating of above 100 in 13 starts and suddenly runs to somewhere in the 120s (RPR 121, TF probably higher). You have to ask yourself how this is happened. I'm also not sure that the fact that the first and second in the race were the two not initially loaded is a coincidence. Those that were already loaded would have started to stiffen up in the stalls.

I can't see how the winner can be expected to beat the third for instance in the future unless conditions conspire to hand her such an advantage.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
I think she'll struggle without an uncontested lead, soft ground to keep the pack at bay and a jockey keeping her just the right side of too fast without being overly conservative, but for all that she had those advantages yesterday I think her performance on the day was for real regardless of how hard it will be to duplicate.
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This is my point of view too but you have put it better than I did yesterday.
 
Sheikh said:
Yup I think it was her day and there may not be more of them at Grp 1 level unless it keeps pegging rain of course but a thoroughly admirable performance all considered. With her bloodlines they needn't do another thing with her.
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I think this is very plausible.
 
Hamm said:
Don't understand the negativity towards her.
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Hi Hamm. Not negativity, she's won her race well. But you'd have to question if she can look this good again in view of several factors that played to her advantage.
 
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I don't understand this obsession in racing with exposed and unexposed pigeon holes. A horse that has had 12 runs can find a sudden spurt of physical or mental maturity as much as a horse that has had 2 runs can.

She had clearly improved as a three year old and needed her first run of the year.

If you ignored her two year old form, everyone would be waxing lyrical about how she's the female Frankel.

She'll be hugely overpriced wherever she lines up next but they'd be morons to run her at Ascot.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I don't understand this obsession in racing with exposed and unexposed pigeon holes. A horse that has had 12 runs can find a sudden spurt of physical or mental maturity as much as a horse that has had 2 runs can.

She had clearly improved as a three year old and needed her first run of the year.

If you ignored her two year old form, everyone would be waxing lyrical about how she's the female Frankel.

She'll be hugely overpriced wherever she lines up next but they'd be morons to run her at Ascot.
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No one's disputing she's improved. But surely you'd have to question whether this was as good as it looked. She won't beat Maybe again and as Sheikh points out they probably won't try. She's likely to look quite normal in any race where she doesn't get yesterday's conditions.
 
SteveM said:
No one's disputing she's improved. But surely you'd have to question whether this was as good as it looked.
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So what she done was a visual illusion? :blink:

If she had Maybe's form figures instead of 63965431210-91 then I think people would be calling her the next coming of something special.

Then again she does have them form figures you can't get away from that but what you also must bear in mind anything she on on Sunday wasn't a fluke and if she has that in her locker then she's the best filly we've got.

Everything she has done on Sunday was better than Camelot from the final time, sectionals, performance, running style but people won't give her credit.

The form of the 1000 Guineas looks more credible than that of the 2000 Guineas yet it looks likely that people are going to take Camelot with them throughout the season and let Homecoming Queen go..

I would rather be taking on Camelot all day every day.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
So what she done was a visual illusion? :blink:

If she had Maybe's form figures instead of 63965431210-91 then I think people would be calling her the next coming of something special.

Then again she does have them form figures you can't get away from that but what you also must bear in mind anything she on on Sunday wasn't a fluke and if she has that in her locker then she's the best filly we've got.

Everything she has done on Sunday was better than Camelot from the final time, sectionals, performance, running style but people won't give her credit.

The form of the 1000 Guineas looks more credible than that of the 2000 Guineas yet it looks likely that people are going to take Camelot with them throughout the season and let Homecoming Queen go..

I would rather be taking on Camelot all day every day.
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You don't get it do you and your facts are totally wrong. Although she ran a faster time overall than Camelot this was as a result of how the race was run, from the front to her extent. Camelot finished the 2,000 Guineas from off the pace and significantly faster than the filly finished in the 1,000. Taking Camelot with you and letting Homecoming Queen go is exactly what you should be doing.
 
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