Road to the 2000 Guineas

Clive, that dreaded question has to be asked, what has he beaten so far?:ninja:


We have a good idea that Goldikova is a class horse, until Frankel runs against what we know is a decent animal there has to be a question mark.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Clive, that dreaded question has to be asked, what has he beaten so far?:ninja:


We have a good idea that Goldikova is a class horse, until Frankel runs against what we know is a decent animal there has to be a question mark.
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We'll find out in about 6 months time Colin.

Frankel would be odds-on for me - I doubt that Goldikova or Canford Cliffs could go like he did yesterday.

As one breeder said of Secretariat "he's what all breeders have been trying to breed for 100 years - one that can sprint for a mile and a half" - think Frankel came close to sprinting 8f yesterday.
 
He has beaten a horse rated 113 (and hardly unexposed) 6 lengths. The manner was extremely impressive, but lets get it in perspective.

Or maybe Dubawi Gold is a 130 horse!

Timeform have lost all credibility in recent times, and now seem to want to show within 5 minutes of a major race a massively inflated rating for their own PR purposes.
 
Its a non quesdtion in my book. You don't win that race in that's style unless you are excpetional. And which leading two year old potential top milers were missing ? Hardly any.
 
He's destroyed the best of his generation not beaten one horse. I have never seen a classic field made to look so ordinary. What more was he supposed to do ?
 
He looks exceptional, not disputing that.

But, the bare form doesn't.

There didn't seem to be (he and possibly Dream Ahead) any exceptional 2yos from last year.

The manner was great but I prefer to look at what he actually achieved rather than how he did it.
 
clivex said:
He's destroyed the best of his generation not beaten one horse. I have never seen a classic field made to look so ordinary. What more was he supposed to do ?
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Lets see how many of this classic field win a Group 1 this season over a mile..

I'll bet none, Irish Guineas aside.
 
Can't really argue with that but they looked like trees yesterday, they probably weren't but.........

Amazing and spectacular performance but I like to keep my feet on the ground.

He looks a champion and I do hope that he is.
 
Casamento tried to go with the winner early doors - big mistake
Pathfork didn't settle
AOB as usual didn't have his ready first time out

So the two milers who had already run were left to plug on at the end. I think they were flattered and will struggle to uphold any ratings over 120.

For me if you'd had a top form Canford Cliffs in that race, ridden with restraint as he usually is he'd have gone past the second and third like they were trees towards the end of the race, a bit like he did in the Irish Guineas. I personally don't think he'd have got to Frankel but he would have got within three lengths.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Frankel would be odds-on for me - I doubt that Goldikova or Canford Cliffs could go like he did yesterday.
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Did Goldikova not go off fast at Ascot last year and held off Paco Boy. I'd back Paco Boy to beat Dubawi Gold 6 lengths. Like Sea The Stars, it is only when Frankel takes on the older generation that he will be able to earn the top stripes.
 
As euro has pointed outn dwelling on those plugging on at the end after the whole field has been destroyed is missing the point entirely I would never back against a horse so massively ahead of his generation and so obviously full of immense ability
 
Hamm said:
He has beaten a horse rated 113 (and hardly unexposed) 6 lengths. The manner was extremely impressive, but lets get it in perspective.

Or maybe Dubawi Gold is a 130 horse!

Timeform have lost all credibility in recent times, and now seem to want to show within 5 minutes of a major race a massively inflated rating for their own PR purposes.
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Dubawi Gold was trained last year by Michael Dods when he was persistently held back by his failure to settle. Joining Hannon Hannon is one reason alone to expect improvement imo, he's won 2 listed races at Lingfield, earning form figures of 107+ and 105+ and timefigures in both races of 105. I'd be very confident, he's an improving horse, but it's also worth noting the strength of his Ascot win as a 2-y-o. He beat Tazahum (now rated 107p after winning the Esher Cup) by three and a half lengths with Group/listed placed Big Audio (103) a further half length away in third.

To take the view that Dubawi Gold hasn't improved at all would mean completely disregarding the fact that the third pulled 11 lengths clear of the 4th. The third he was clear with was of course, Native Khan, winner of the Craven.

Would be interesting to see what speedfigure EC would come up with if he still posts, think it would back up a high view of the form.
 
davidjohnson said:
Dubawi Gold was trained last year by Michael Dods when he was persistently held back by his failure to settle. Joining Hannon Hannon is one reason alone to expect improvement imo, he's won 2 listed races at Lingfield, earning form figures of 107+ and 105+ and timefigures in both races of 105. I'd be very confident, he's an improving horse, but it's also worth noting the strength of his Ascot win as a 2-y-o. He beat Tazahum (now rated 107p after winning the Esher Cup) by three and a half lengths with Group/listed placed Big Audio (103) a further half length away in third.

To take the view that Dubawi Gold hasn't improved at all would mean completely disregarding the fact that the third pulled 11 lengths clear of the 4th. The third he was clear with was of course, Native Khan, winner of the Craven.

Would be interesting to see what speedfigure EC would come up with if he still posts, think it would back up a high view of the form.
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Where did I say he hasn't improved? I said he was rated 113 and relatively exposed. He may well be a 120 horse, who knows?

He is not, however, a 130 horse, a Timeform have bracketed him.
 
Cantoris

I am a big fan of the admirable Paco boy. A real fav of mine. But if you are going to bang on about the number of lengths that Frankel won by, tell us how many lengths were required to be a genuniely superb performance?

Doesnt make much sense now does it?

Hamm... i wouldnt be at all surprised if one of the field wins a group one. The irish or french guineas certainly

I think what is also forgotten is that Newmarket is surely as difficult a course as anywhere to take a race in that manner. Its hardly Chester. This is being rated into the performance and rightly so.
 
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Hamm said:
He is not, however, a 130 horse, a Timeform have bracketed him.
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I don't think they have. I think they went 137/125 and have given Frankel five pounds more on top of that because he was in the lead for so long. This could turn into a Hawk Wing/Where or When scenario whereby the runner up fails to live up to the rating given.
 
Hamm

The ratings of the placed horses from the Guineas are Dubawi Gold 121 and Native Khan 120.

Every time I respond to a post of yours these days you get on the defensive, 'Where did I say' etc. For some reason you want to pick an argument with everyone on hear these days, and I'm not going to bite like others, I'm too busy producing inflated ratings at the drop of a hat for my company's PR purposes!
 
Euronymous said:
I don't think they have. I think they went 137/125 and have given Frankel five pounds more on top of that because he was in the lead for so long. This could turn into a Hawk Wing/Where or When scenario whereby the runner up fails to live up to the rating given.
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Hopefully they'll stick him in the Jersey, if he doesn't run up to that figure there, then it will certainly warrant close consideration again.
 
davidjohnson said:
Hamm

The ratings of the placed horses from the Guineas are Dubawi Gold 121 and Native Khan 120.

Every time I respond to a post of yours these days you get on the defensive, 'Where did I say' etc. For some reason you want to pick an argument with everyone on hear these days, and I'm not going to bite like others, I'm too busy producing inflated ratings at the drop of a hat for my company's PR purposes!
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Okay, you've got the wrong end of the stick here and are gone off on a tangent.

If you quote a post of mine, and then say something contrary, then of course I am going to ask you what are you referring to as I didn't say that (in this case, Dubawi Gold).

If Frankel is rated 142, then how is Dubawi Gold anything but a 130 horse, or have we got back to rating horses how we choose? Are P/p/+ redundant?

It's funny how nowadays Timeform come out after most big races with an inflated rating - to me, that smacks of attention seeking. That is not 'trying to start an argument', that is how I honestly see it. If you disagree fine, but don't tell me I am trying to start an argument.

I used to really like Timeform, but they are making up rules re rating Sea the Stars and now Frankel.

This forum is beginning to be more of a negative thing for me, rather than positive (I mean this in a general sense, not referring to you).
 
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Have to agree with the comments, re: Timeform. Ever since Betfair have taken over they seem to have gone a bit gung ho with their ratings and PR yet their products are well behind many others offered in the marketplace in my opinion. They have a number of individuals working for them who I respect normally (including posters on this forum) but I don't understand why their ratings are treated with such respect by the media et al.

Much prefer the American method with Beyer ratings which are done totally on a statistical/time level.
 
Just to be clear - I like TF and would rather they returned to rating horses who they did before, and enjoy nearly all their products and style - that is what makes this kind of thing so frustrating.
 
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