Road to the 2000 Guineas

davidjohnson said:
As incredible only as Paco Boy though. :blink:
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You got me there. It was an incredible "performance". Forgot that word. Thanks for pointing it out and I will work harder in the future to perfect my structuring of sentences.:)

This is why I like national hunt. It's not about winning by three lengths or twenty lengths but the way you jump. Flat racing is sooo boring!! Ha ha, I think Frankel will need to prove himself against the older horses below you can put this sort of a debate to rest. You say we are "banging on" about how far X beats Y, but isn't that all we have to go on until they meet? Take World Domination. He has done nothing to justify winning a Derby, yet plenty think he can because of the style he won rather than what he beat. If they rode Frankel differently, maybe he would have won by 20 lengths but they didn't and all we can go on is the style and winning difference. All I'm suggesting in the Paco Boy/Dubawi Gold formline is that I would fancy one to beat the other by more than six lengths and on the evidence that suggests that Frankel will have to put up a better performance to beat Goldikova, which he could well do. He is an improving horse and you know yourself, three year olds can improve significantly through the season. We won't know until we find out.
 
Hamm said:
Okay, you've got the wrong end of the stick here and are gone off on a tangent.

If you quote a post of mine, and then say something contrary, then of course I am going to ask you what are you referring to as I didn't say that (in this case, Dubawi Gold).

If Frankel is rated 142, then how is Dubawi Gold anything but a 130 horse, or have we got back to rating horses how we choose? Are P/p/+ redundant?

It's funny how nowadays Timeform come out after most big races with an inflated rating - to me, that smacks of attention seeking. That is not 'trying to start an argument', that is how I honestly see it. If you disagree fine, but don't tell me I am trying to start an argument.

I used to really like Timeform, but they are making up rules re rating Sea the Stars and now Frankel.

This forum is beginning to be more of a negative thing for me, rather than positive (I mean this in a general sense, not referring to you).
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I agree with you Hamm and would love to have a go at rating the race - but I'm a jumps man at heart and feel very comfortable rating jump races but haven't got a clue where to start on flat races - do you have a link on how to rate flat races at various distances?
 
I would just like to catagorically state I am not sexist. I love women, too much. If only half the time they felt the same about me lol.
 
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Cantoris said:
Did Goldikova not go off fast at Ascot last year and held off Paco Boy. I'd back Paco Boy to beat Dubawi Gold 6 lengths. Like Sea The Stars, it is only when Frankel takes on the older generation that he will be able to earn the top stripes.
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She did go off fast - we'll likely never know how fast the two compare with accurate sectionals and the % of the final time run in each quarter etc.

Hopefully they'll meet at some point in the future - preferably on genuine good ground.
 
I think Frankel is capable of running a mile faster than Goldikova and if they continue to employ those tactics i'm not sure Goldikova would see it out.
 
davidjohnson said:
Would be interesting to see what speedfigure EC would come up with if he still posts, think it would back up a high view of the form.
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131 ...David

Thats without wfa added

The highest figure I gave Sea The Stars was 130..again without WFA added.

The Sea The Stars figure was in July as well so if Frankel gets even stronger he could easily be a 135/136 horse by then with average improvement

a 131 figure at this stage for a 3yo is very swift..exceptional

what has to be taken into account is the fact that any other horse running that hard early would finish stone last..the fact that Frankel was still going after that blistering pace early is nigh on impossible.

lets say Frankel went just a little more steadily early on..he would have won by 15 lengths or more with that extra bit saved imo

i have to say that i have never seen anything like it..when they switched to the head on view about 3 out..it was unreal

He is potentially the greatest miler we have seen...imo

Up to press we have seen him pull like heck because nothing is going fast enough for him..then in the guineas he went hell for leather...when he races somewhere inbetween these two extremes i think you might see a performance that will impress the ratings makers

i have no doubt that he is something totally out of the ordinary
 
One thing that seems to get forgotten a bit re TF ratings is that they are about 6lbs higher than OHR's aren't they?

so when TF give a horse 142 its about an OHR of 136 ish?

i might be wrong but i seem to remember them being higher

I think its fair to say that when they hit the line Frankel was getting caught..but as i said..there is no horse i've ever seen that could go that hard early and finish anywhere but stone last..this isn't being allowed for imo when people are viewing the bare result

when Queally was interviewed afterwards on the way to winners enclosure he was asked if they planned to go that hard and he didn't answer..i think he knew he overdid it a bit

even for a big strider like Frankel..that was going too hard early..wait til he runs something like even pace..well ..even pace for him:)
 
Aragorn said:
I think Frankel is capable of running a mile faster than Goldikova and if they continue to employ those tactics i'm not sure Goldikova would see it out.
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Well I'm sure we'll find out at some stage this season. Until then, it is simply opinions and conjecture and best just to admire a wonderful performance and let the horses do the talking over the next six months.
 
I see the RPR for Frankel is 133, while Timeform has him on a provisional 142. As big a fan of Frankel as I am the Timeform figure simply cannot be accurate. TF is saying that Frankel has already justified a higher mark than the best of Dancing Brave or Mill Reef (by its own standards). In a race run almost 2 seconds slower than standard how is this possible?

btw... it's already like you've never been away EC ;)
 
SteveM said:
TF is saying that Frankel has already justified a higher mark than the best of Dancing Brave or Mill Reef (by its own standards). In a race run almost 2 seconds slower than standard how is this possible?
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It isn't, they've added five pounds just because he was in front for so long. It's not a rating that will stand.
 
I've a slight doubt about the accuracy of the official times at Newmarket on Saturday. Four of the seven end in a zero which is often an indication of malfunctioning equipment and hand timing. I could be wrong of course - it's usually flagged up in the Post's results section when it happens and there's nothing to that effect.
 
What an exhilarating performance by Frankel, who was literally out on his own yesterday and simply burst any rival who tried to go with him. He is one of the most exciting horses I have ever seen.

That said, I would query the Timeform rating for Satuday's win. When horses win races by a big margin the methodolgy used to rate them starts to give wobbly results. The yardstick of so many pounds per length beaten works ok in normal races, but not in races where a horse detaches itself from the rest of the field.

I don't have a satisfactory explanation, but it seems to me that if one horse gets too far in front and won't be caught, that the elastic of competition breaks. Once that happens each additional length put between the winner and the rest of the field is more cheaply achieved.

I therefore operate a rule of thumb and reduce the RPR ratings of wide margin winners. Over jumps, if a horse wins by more than say six lengths I reduce the points for each additional length by perhaps half, sometimes even more. For example, I would usually reduce the rating of a performance assessed at 140 after winning by 20 lengths to something in the low 130s. I have found that this approach has served me well, that it provides a more realistic assessment of wide margin winners.

Timeform seem to be taking the opposite approach, and are not only following a linear scale for distance beaten but are even adding bonus points for wider margin victories.
 
Euronymous said:
It isn't, they've added five pounds just because he was in front for so long. It's not a rating that will stand.
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I hope you're right. I did see that they said they had added in 5lb for the worth of the performance (so I suppose they are saying he has run to 137)... but they can't just do that. This is what the + and P are for. Extra pounds were not added in the past. Why now.

They can't claim Frankel is superior to Dancing Brave or Mill Reef if he hasn't actually run to a figure.
 
Grey said:
Timeform seem to be taking the opposite approach, and are not only following a linear scale for distance beaten but are even adding bonus points for wider margin victories.
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This also seems to me to be exactly what they are doing. And I make no apology in saying that this is as irresponsible as it is inaccurate. You cannot compare like with like even with Timeform's own figures these days. Phil Bull must be turning in his grave.
 
I've timed the race 20 times now with an online stopwatch in one window and the race in another and everytime I've got 1m 36.5 secs as compared to the official time of 1m 37.3 - I just can't get the sectionals accurate but i'm certain the second 4f were faster than the first 4f (Approx 50secs & 46.5secs). Anyone else like to give it a go?
 
Best 3yo miling performance I have ever seen.

I think it was an exceptional performance to do that from the front at a track like Newmarket on a breezy day.

I said before that I thought he should be campaigned at 6f, I am not so sure now. He would probably win a July Cup, but he is unlikely to have a chance to beat serious animals over sprint distances. Pitching him against serious horses like Canford Cliffs and Goldikova will give us a true, irrefutable idea of how good a horse he was. Dubai Millennium broke Sendawar's heart, he broke Dansili's heart. That's how we know how good he was. Beating Star Witness a length isn't going to show us what Frankel is all about.

I believe that he won't stay 1m4f, but I wouldn't blame them for trying. I wouldn't go near it in 5 weeks, though. Remember what happened to Dubai Millennium? Particularly after such a big run on Saturday. There is nothing wrong with St. James' Palace -> Sussex -> Juddmonte or Jacques Le Marois (I suspect the former, given his owners). Depending on the performance in the Juddmonte, then decide whether to go for the Arc or the QEII/Breeder's.

Cecil, Abdullah and Queally have public property on their hands now.
 
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