Road to the 2013 Gold Cup

The fact this thread keeps getting pushed off the front page, something that would never have happened during the Kauto and Denman days is an indication of how poor a Gold Cup it is.

It's competitive looking but lacks real quality.

No one seems confident which of the two Seven Barrows horses has the best chance. AP pretty much knows what's what at Seven barrows and the fact he prefers the chances of Long Run to those of the comparative novice Bobsworth would seem to confirm that.

We can all have a laugh at the expense of SWC but those who oppose his mount could easily be laughing on the other side of their faces if he puts his best foot forward.

Bobsworth is hard not to like but this is someway clear of anything he has done to date.

His RSA defeat of First Lieutenant was nothing special and his biggest claim to fame is he beat Tidal Bay in a Grade 3 handicap 3 lengths getting 6lbs.

As much as Tidal Bay is loveable he's no Denman and the chances of him being good enough to win a Gold Cup are round about zero.

Tidal Bay, First First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs all look very much the same grade to me and I doubt if any of them would have got within 10 lengths of Kauto Star but Long Run did. That alone makes him favourite for this on paper.

Against that he ran a stinker in a worse looking race last year but no worse than he did in the Paddy Power the year he won the Gold Cup.

I've never been a fan of his but I reckon he could win this. Nicky Henderson said in his preview he's in much better order this season. He's got no axe to grind between his two either one will do so taking it he is not speaking with forked tongue that's enough to swing me and back Long Run ew.
 
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Tanlic said:
As much as Tidal Bay is loveable he's no Denman and the chances of him being good enough to win a Gold Cup are round about zero.

Tidal Bay, First First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs all look very much the same grade to me and I doubt if any of them would have got within 10 lengths of Kauto Star but Long Run did. .
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Tidal Bay was scratched from the race at the last entry stage
 
Tanlic said:
The fact this thread keeps getting pushed off the front page, something that would never have happened during the Kauto and Denman days is an indication of how poor a Gold Cup it is.

It's competitive looking but lacks real quality.
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I think I tried to say that several pages back only to spark a wave of derision...:)
 
It is certainly possible to pick holes in the form of most of those entered. We have been spoilt in recent years. Add in the impact of the weather on both races and training andyou have the possibility of an upset. That said I think Nicholl's horse is the most likely winner.
 
Not sure that's the case, TS.

Where are the holes in Bobs Worth's form? Concerns about the lack of a run may perhaps have legitimacy (we'll find out soon enough), but his form is about as rock-solid as you would want going into a Gold Cup, imo.

PS. He'll have Conti for his breakfast! :D
 
I think its a reflection that there is a lack of firm opinions about the race. People had firm opinions about Denman and Kauto Star.
 
Bar the Bull said:
One thing I can't understand about Silivianaco Conti is why he doesn't generate more hype.

He has had a fabulous start to his chasing career.
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Think the Feltham last year indicated that Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were honest horses, they weren't top notchers - given how outpointed they were by Grands Crus. Think thats still there.
 
Grasshopper said:
3m at Kempton probably never going to play to BW's strengths....not his true form, imo.
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Well I was talking about the lack of hype about Silviniaco Conti, and the Feltham still didnt look hot form when Invictus beat a very slow looking Bob's Worth in the Reynoldstown.
 
Grasshopper said:
3m at Kempton probably never going to play to BW's strengths....not his true form, imo.
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Bit like when Invictus beat him :ninja: I can never get excited about horses that need quite specific conditions, like going left handed, to show their best form, however, a bit like SDC, Cheltenham suits. They are both in with a shout and their collateral form with Tidal bay has them pretty closely matched but Nicholls thinks Silviniaco is a far better horse than Tidal who would not have even run if fit...... Hmmm...

Silviniaco looks a bet then surely, given that Nicholls feels he's far better than Tidal and that horse ties in all the other form lines? But he underwhelms me a bit and I'm not particularly confident that the form will translate on the day.

Long Runs shot his bolt I reckon, Captain Chris is risky at best, Giant Bolster, Prince de Beauchene and Cape Tribulation could run into a place but winning it? Surely not....

The rest are either not good enough or won't turn up.

So, in summation, much like the Champion Hurdle, I haven't got a feckin scooby :cool:
 
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Long Run has run stinkers a few times but it never stopped him bouncing back to win another King George. Not bad for a horse who's shot his bolt.

tbh I had forgotten about Silviniaco. The reason he's not being hyped was pretty well summed up by Ruby when he said he was a straight forward horse.

There's nothing flashy about him and if he runs his normal race he must have a great chance in what looks like a pretty ordinary Gold Cup.
 
One thing that stops me going for a decent bet on Silviniaco is an abscence of track experience on undulating courses. Wins largely on flat tracks surely this is not coincidental.

In contrast Bob's Worth clearly enjoys Cheltenham
 
Tout Seul said:
One thing that stops me going for a decent bet on Silviniaco is an abscence of track experience on undulating courses. Wins largely on flat tracks surely this is not coincidental.

In contrast Bob's Worth clearly enjoys Cheltenham
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As does sir des champs.
 
SDC has won here twice and I think the hill is less of a disadvantage to him than some of the others. Can't see Long Run being out of the first three.
 
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