Road to the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup

JamesRB said:
First Lieutenant NR
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Sickner! Just typical of the way this week has gone. I had him backed at a monster price for Gold Cup on the exchanges.

Primarily as cover so I could have a decent bet on Bob' sWorth.

My Ante Post book has been a complete disaster!!!
 
It's a one horse race for me.

I can't get SC anywhere near the big figures the commercial people are getting for him.

And Lord Windermere each-way to run past all bar Bob up the hill.
 
If you haven't got anything worth saying. Don't say anything at all. Which explains my lack of posts recently. However...

Cloudy Too wins the Gold Cup.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Jesus. We waited so long for that?
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I'll be back at at either 3:30 or the start of the flat...

Seriously it is a two horse race. Bobs Worth comes in off the back of a G1 win and with an impeccable Cheltenham record. There is your winner. The choice you have is whether you would take 6/4 about the horse that you saw at Haydock.

SC may be the best horse in the race, but has won only 1 of last 4, never won at Cheltenham, in fact has made mistakes both time he has run. That is only going to be exasperated by quick ground imo.

So I can see why people are looking for alternatives. Which is why Last Instalment is so short. Lovely winning profile, but 27f up the Cheltenham hill yet to be proven and has only really been beating up a 13yo and First Lieutenant over 3 miles.

After that you are into the 'cappers, nags, plodders and stayers. So in the bid to find some value, pick the least fashionable one - something from the northern circuit. Back it at the biggest price you can find - 80/1

I was at Wetherby for the Rowland Meyrick (backed Cape Trib) and Cloudy Too was impressive.

In his favour:

- 2 wins and a 2nd from 4 starts this season
- 2nd highest topspeed rating in the race
- 2nd behind Captain Chris lto (who I would give a squeak in this year's renewal), with some decent horses in behind: Hunt Ball, Medermit, Kauto Stone, Riverside Theatre etc.
- Only "poor" performance this season was the Hennessey, but actually 3 out was in contention when making a mistake
- Still only 8, still on the upgrade
- Probably best seen with cut, trainer certainly says so, but she has run him on good and GS often enough and he has won on Good over hurdles
- This jockey has a 50% strike rate onboard him

Hey look, it is an 80/1 outsider. But it is a raggy race and I think that there is worse value in that field...
 
betsmate said:
I'll be back at at either 3:30 or the start of the flat...

Seriously it is a two horse race. Bobs Worth comes in off the back of a G1 win and with an impeccable Cheltenham record. There is your winner. The choice you have is whether you would take 6/4 about the horse that you saw at Haydock.
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I am beginning to think Cue Card actually incurred his injury at Kempton when he started to falter close home in the KG. Cue Cards form is the key here, the pace, sharp track and lack of a pipe opener were all against Bobs Worth at Haydock and both Dynaste and Silviniaco have Franked the form of that race since. Ignore that running and BW has done little wrong, still unbeaten at Cheltenham.
I backed Cloudy Too at Wetherby and thought he travelled supremely well and could be called the winner from some way out.

F/c material
 
No chance that's getting reversed. Two knackered horses at the end of 3m, jockey with the whip in his correct hand.
 
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