Road to the Champion Chase 2011

On the contrary, I think his best is in a completely different stratosphere to what he is capable of now.

His wins earlier in the season were all style over substance. Formwise, they weren't up to much.

I agree with your comment about BZ having a ceiling on his talent. However, I think that he is far more likely to run his race in March. The only reason I backed MM back in November was because of the paucity of 160+ runners around this year, and the breathing op that Nicholls reckoned would make the difference.

I would say that BZ will run to 170, with a standard deviation of 3lb.
Master Minded will run to 170 with a standard deviation of 7lb. However his distribution is skewed slightly to the left.
 
I haven't backed anything for this race yet but I certainly wouldn;t be put off by yesterdays run if I was in the Big Zeb camp. He jumped and travelled great and Geraghty just went too soon.. I can't see the placings the same way if they met again.

Looking back at people's comments about MM i thought McCoy rode a shocker personally. Quite why he felt the need to keep booting MM into the fences I have no idea - He doesn't need to, the horse does it himself.. He got his tactics wrong and even if nobody was listening I think McCoy would stand by what he said. Not his finest hour.
 
Exactly, Martin.

He should continue to mop-up in handicaps this season - he's clearly not same class as Zeb or MM, but another 12 months on his back and he might be ready.

:blink:
 
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Exactly, Martin.

He should continue to mop-up in handicaps this season - he's clearly not same class as Zeb or MM, but another 12 months on his back and he might be ready.

:blink:


think you will find that WF is improving

you don't don't seem to grasp that concept re HF..so ...as funny as your jokes are..and they are nearly as funny as that hilarious thread:D ...they are actually on you:)
 
For the last time, EC1, it's only your opinion that HF has reached the end of his improvement.

There is no evidence to support this, for the very straightforward reason that he is undefeated this season and has looked better each time in his three victories. It's hardly the profile of a horse who has reached a plateau in his development.
 
For the last time, EC1, it's only your opinion that HF has reached the end of his improvement.

There is no evidence to support this, for the very straightforward reason that he is undefeated this season and has looked better each time in his three victories. It's hardly the profile of a horse who has reached a plateau in his development.


and does me passing that opinion mean its automatically wrong?

just because 4 or 5 people come on opposing my view doesn't mean you are right and I'm wrong..

i usually find in these types of arguments..when one person appears to be having it ripped out of him..others with same view don't post..they don't want to be ridiculed by a baying crowd:)
 
That may be true, or it may be that you are posting absolute horseshit.

I respect a lot of your opinions, like WF and BZ recently. But in this instance, I believe you are completely and utterly way out.

He may not win the race, but he is absolutely entitled to have a crack at it. What you seem to be promoting is so joyless.
 
EC1, I'm never likely to ridicule you now, am I? :cool:

If your opinion is that he won't be good enough, then that's fair enough. But your assertion is that he isn't good enough to even take part. That's the difference, and may go some way to explaining why several people have taken issue with it.

And I don't think you're having it ripped out of you either. Yours is a strong statement, and you should expect a strong response - it's only natural.
 
Crucify him!


lol

i didn't actually say he wasn't good enough to take part..you are putting words in my mouth now aren't you?..if i did by the way..i didn't mean it to come across like that:)

i said i wouldn't run him in it

my view is..that a horse like HF at this time seems to have a clear level of form..without any evidence of improvement..imo...so my point is that if he can't run higher than his form this year then he won't win the CH..so if he were mine i'd duck it..bang a few more moppers up and see if with a few more runs under his belt does bring about some improvement

there is nothing radical about that
 
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I also believe that HF hasn't the same capacity for further improvement as some in the field (such as Peddlar's Cross), although I also believe he hasn't plateaued yet. HF certainly deserves his place in the line up. But whether he should run or not is not the same question.

If he were mine I'd almost certainly go the Champion route, but that may not necessarily be the best strategy.

I think some of you are being a bit too dismissive of EC's assertion... It does have some merit. Limestone Lad's connections adopted a similar strategy... who's to say whether they were right or wrong.
 
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Limestone Lad's connections adopted a similar strategy... who's to say whether they were right or wrong.

I don't think that is true.

He didn't run in '99 because he had yet to esxtablish himself; if he had run, it would have been in the County or Coral Cup most likely.

He ran in '00. '01 was F&M.

Seeing as he ran in '03, I take it you are talking about '02. My memory is that he was injured.
 
I don't think that is true.

He didn't run in '99 because he had yet to esxtablish himself; if he had run, it would have been in the County or Coral Cup most likely.

He ran in '00. '01 was F&M.

Seeing as he ran in '03, I take it you are talking about '02. My memory is that he was injured.

I think a large element of their thinking was to mop up prizes at home. But I almost wish I hadn't raised him as an example, as it is virtually besides the point what other people decided to do.

Like I say it is natural for owners to want to go to the Festival, but objectively that may not be best. As far as I can see that was all that EC was saying.
 
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It's one thing saying, with the benefit of hindsight, that some horses would have been better off avoiding Cheltenham. But decisions have to be taken beforehand.

The only race HF even potentially misses out on by going to Cheltenham is the Aintree 2m4f race, and it's quite possible that he'll turn up there anyway. I can't think of a single other race during February or March worth going for instead of the Champion Hurdle, not even the Grade 2 Red Mills race at Gowran.

Not going to Cheltenham would be an admission that he wasn't good enough to go. It's one thing to avoid the Festival with a young horse, if you believe it might leave its mark and impede its development, but that consideration doesn't apply to HF.

Regarding the point that the season shouldn't all build up to one race, I have my doubts. At least they meet at Cheltenham, even if they are avoiding each other beforehand. When would they ever get to meet if Cheltenham was of no greater status than say the Kempton or Leopardstown Christmas meetings?
 
Does this bloody Hurricane Fly argument have to spill over to every thread?!??

Seriously, getting a tad boring now, lads. EC1 thinks he shouldn't run in the Champion Hurdle, everyone else thinks he should; including WIllie Mullins who trains him so he's likely to run whether EC1 likes it or not!
 
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Does this bloody Hurricane Fly argument have to spill over to every thread?!??

Seriously, getting a tad boring now, lads. EC1 thinks he shouldn't run in the Champion Hurdle, everyone else thinks he should; including WIllie Mullins who trains him so he's likely to run whether EC1 likes it or not!


well said




















by the way - do you think he should run SL? :lol:
 
"Was there only a day between the races when Flyingbolt ran in both?"

He was some horse!

From Wikipedia:


".....................His next start was back at home in the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park where he carried the now customary top weight and beat Height O'Fashion by a distance (in excess of 30 lengths) giving her 28 lbs with Flying Wild (who received 29 lbs) another 25 lengths back in third. Yet another astonishing performance. Indeed Arkle had failed by a length to give 32 lbs to Flying Wild in the previous season's Massey-Ferguson Gold Cup.
His next port of call was the Cheltenham Festival for the 2-mile Champion Chase. He started at odds of 1-5, the shortest price in the history of the race and he won pulling up by 15 lengths. The comment beside his name in the Form Book afterwards said it all - "took lead 2 out, canter". This effort led many to regret that he wasn't given the chance to take on Arkle in the Gold Cup. Unfortunately, because both were trained by the same man, this was always unlikely to happen. However, 24 hours after the Champion Chase, Flyingbolt re-appeared in the Champion Hurdle where despite taking on the specialist 2-mile hurdlers he started a short priced favourite. Although beaten by just over 3 lengths, Pat Taaffe was widely criticised for going round the outside and perhaps not letting this proven stayer set a clear lead earlier. As it was, Flyingbolt got too close to the fourth last and lost valuable ground which may well have cost him the race. It is also possible that Taaffe was mindful of the fact that he had just raced the previous day and instead of kicking on down the hill in order to make full use of his stamina, he waited till the straight which allowed his 'quicker' rivals to conserve their energy and he was just caught for 'toe' after the last. Indeed, it was one of the very rare occasions that Tom Dreaper ever expressed his dissatisfaction to Pat for the ride he gave to one of his horses. However, Flyingbolt ended his season on a high note when carrying the welter burden of 12st-7 lbs in the Irish Grand National over three-and-a-quarter miles at Fairyhouse beating Height O'Fashion (by 2 lengths) and the previous year's winner Splash, giving them 40 lbs and 42 lbs respectively. When Arkle (carrying 12-0) won the same race 2 years previously he beat Height O'Fashion by a length-and-a-quarter giving her 30 lbs, 10 lbs less than what Flyingbolt had conceded. Indeed Flyingbolt is the only Irish National winner since 1946 to have carried 12-7 to victory in this race and it is a feat that is most unlikely to be repeated. Pat Taaffe later reflected on the race in his aforementioned book when he said:
"Flyingbolt won the 1966 Irish National very easily from Arkle's old rival Height O'Fashion. He settled down beautifully and I was surprised how well he stayed. If top weight worried him, it never showed. He made winning look an easy thing that day. Once again I was reminded that I was alternating between the king and crown prince of chasing. More than ever, it now seemed only a matter of time before he took over from Arkle."
It was yet another remarkable effort and he was now unbeaten in 11 starts over fences. In all, he had won 17 of his 20 races including 3 wins in 3 different races at the Cheltenham Festival, a feat that has yet to be equalled. At only 7 years of age (2 years younger than Arkle) it looked like he had the racing world at his feet. Sadly, things would never be the same again."
 
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