Road to the Champion Chase 2011
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
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HK also said this morning she's hoping to get A P McCoy for Somersby if Captain Cee Bee doesn't run and has already informed Hadden Frost of the situation.
rorydelargy
At the Start
This is actually sensible - if McCoy rides Somersby the same way he rode Edredon Bleu when winning the Grand Annual, he'll damn near win.
rorydelargy
At the Start
And I can confirm that he'll almost certainly burst a blood vessel before pulling up.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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G
Gearoid
Guest
I very much respected the early season market move for him. He has the potential to win a QM but his last run screamed put a line through me.
His last outing screamed put a line through the run rather than through the horse. He wasn't wound up for it, he missed a lot of work on account of the weather, and looked flat in the parade ring beforehand.
Unfortunately the blood vessel problem makes him something of an enigma, but his best form is of the highest class and I expect he'll win another big one this season at one of the spring meetings.
Unfortunately the blood vessel problem makes him something of an enigma, but his best form is of the highest class and I expect he'll win another big one this season at one of the spring meetings.
That may be the case (I do not fancy him at all) but he'll be bursting with McCoy on him!
swedish chef
At the Start
F.A.O. Alan - I'm still in the Somersby camp e/way
Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe.
Ante-post / Timeform / 07 February 2011
The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....
In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at 3.35.
After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the 8.6 currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.
Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a 4.6 shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of 4.0. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.
Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.
Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the 10.0 currently available about him is on the generous side.
Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.
Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at 12.0 he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.
Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.
Recommendation
Back Woolcombe Folly @ 10.0 in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Champion Chase Betting: There's nothing Folly about backing Woolcombe.
Ante-post / Timeform / 07 February 2011
The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere....
In the aftermath of his narrow defeat of Somersby in the VC Chase at Ascot in January, Master Minded drifted slightly in the ante-post market for the Champion Chase. However, rather than Master Minded running below form, we have taken the view that Somersby put up the sort of top-class performance that he had long promised at Ascot, and in getting the better of him Master Minded produced his best effort on Timeform ratings since announcing himself as the best two-mile chaser around in the 2008 Champion Chase. That sort of form makes Master Minded the clear one to beat ahead of this season's renewal of the Champion, and the rightful market leader at 3.35.
After some uncertainty as to which race would be his Festival target, Somersby has reportedly been confirmed as on track for the Champion Chase rather than the Ryanair. Whether that is the right move is open to question given how well he usually finishes off his races, but nevertheless the fact of the matter is that Somersby has a top-class performance in a two-mile chase to his name, and a reproduction of his VC Chase effort would obviously result in him being right in the mix in the Champion. In both his previous runs over two miles at Cheltenham (in the 2009/10 Arkle and this season's Tingle Creek) Somersby has got outpaced turning for home before staying on strongly up the Hill, and the likelihood is that a real test at the trip will see him at his very best. Strictly judged on form the 8.6 currently available about him for the race is too big, but the doubts raised by his previous efforts over two miles at Cheltenham temper enthusiasm somewhat.
Big Zeb is the reigning Champion Chaser, and he has built up a very solid profile over the last couple of seasons. He met with something of a bump on his road back to Cheltenham when beaten by Golden Silver in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the end of January, but the market has by no means overreacted to that apparent setback, Big Zeb currently a 4.6 shot for the Champion, having been matched to decent money at a low of 4.0. That lack of significant movement in the market looks justified, as Big Zeb's defeat to Golden Silver represented his best effort of the season on Timeform ratings, and he was only 2 lb below the form he had shown when winning the Champion in 2010. He will head there this time with excellent claims once more, though this year's race will likely take a bit more winning with Master Minded seemingly back to his best and a couple of other pretenders having emerged in the meantime.
Other than Somersby, Woolcombe Folly looks the strongest challenger among last season's novices. Woolcombe Folly won a Grade 2 novice chase at Doncaster on his first start over fences around this time last year, and was swiftly pitched into considerably rougher waters to contest the Arkle on his next start. The Arkle proved too much for Woolcombe Folly as he trailed in last, but the scope remained for him to still do better, and that has emphatically proved the case in two starts this season.
Woolcombe Folly started out 2010/11 with a win off 142 in a two-mile handicap at Ascot in November and built on that the following month when defying a mark of 154 at Cheltenham, in a time that compared very favourably with the one recorded by Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on the same day. Woolcombe Folly's win at Cheltenham rates as one of the very best handicap performances of the season, and if he repeats it at the Festival he will more than likely place. If he can improve slightly upon that form then it is not at all difficult to envisage him playing an even more significant role, so there is certainly a case to be made that the 10.0 currently available about him is on the generous side.
Golden Silver put up a career-best effort when lowering Big Zeb's colours in the Tied Cottage, running to the sort of figure that puts him right among the leading form contenders for the Champion Chase, though he does also have the option of the Ryanair at the Festival. The level of his form entitles Golden Silver to be shorter for both those races, though that is mitigated somewhat by his Cheltenham record, poor effort in the the 2009 Arkle and last season's Champion Chase all he has to show from two visits to Prestbury Park.
Captain Cee Bee is the best of those not yet mentioned, but at 12.0 he looks a very poor price on anything he's done over fences to date. He finished a long way behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver when last seen at Leopardstown over Christmas, and has getting on for a stone to find with the form principals.
Sizing Europe looked like he had the potential to make up into a realistic Champion Chase contender when winning last year's Arkle, but he hasn't quite gone on from that run as might have been hoped. He seemed to see three miles when tried over the trip on his first two starts this season, and ran to a similar standard back at two miles last time when third behind Golden Silver and Big Zeb at Punchestown. That suggests he may have reached his limit over fences, and there isn't a compelling reason why he'll reverse that form.
Recommendation
Back Woolcombe Folly @ 10.0 in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Bar the Bull
At the Start
10.0 is actually 9/1 on Betfair. And it is now 9.6, so just over 17/2.
Cheers Barry.
G
Gearoid
Guest
What is your biggest outlay ante post on the festival, if you don't mind me asking?
What ? That AP had said it ?
No - but I am sure they would listen to AP carefully and if he said CCB had no real chance they would not run him .
Is he going to have another run before the Festival ? On his run behind Big Zeb he would appear to have little chance but I think Harty blamed the ground.
G
Gearoid
Guest
Captain Cee Bee being the fragile beast he is would probably be best suited being fresh at the festival.
There's no reason why AP would say any such thing. You,re talking about a horse that beat Binocular as a novice hurdler and landed the big novice event at Punchestown.
He didn't look right at Leopardstown and in fact he did well to finish as close as he did.
P.S. I don't think JP manages his horses in the way you suggest. I have the impression he leaves it pretty much up to each trainer to do what they would normally do.
Last edited:
G
Gearoid
Guest
I really wanted to reply that each trainer stops his horses on it's own merits but I thought better of it.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
There's a reason he likes to use the same jockeys - AP, McLernon, Fehily, Berry, Casey, Walsh, Crowe, Madden being the main ones
It's down to each trainer to train the horse but the rest I'd hazard is down to JP and Frank Berry.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Are you saying that Frank Berry is the mastermind behind the "programming" and "race planning" that allows JP win some of the bigger handicaps??
G
Gearoid
Guest
Are you saying that Frank Berry is the mastermind behind the "programming" and "race planning" that allows JP win some of the bigger handicaps??
Libel laws and a good rounded up bringing would prevent Martin form ever suggesting such conspiratorial nonsense.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
I'm saying that JP's racing operation is a well oiled machine and everyone has their part to play - I'm sure JP likes to talk things over with Frank though