Road to the Champion Hurdle 2023

Why don't you get your facts straight and keep the sarcasm to a minimum........be a good boy and learn from yer old Da!!!

Monksfield was the last horse to win on the old layout of the old course it has never been run on the new course.

Sea Pigeon was the first horse to win from the change and it was 43 years ago, while Make a Stand won 17 years later.

The second last where Champion Hurdles are won and lost has never been moved and Hurricane Fly who ran on the most similar ground to Constitution Hill and was outpointed by 15 seconds timewise was only a few years ago.

Only 5 horses have broken 3 min 50 sec and none of them ran on ground as slow as Constitition Hill who now holds the course record.

The Gold Cup was switched to the New Course a few years before Arkle came on the scene
 
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Tanlic said:
As Truncheon touches on it there's a lot more to it than that. When both Jezki and Annie's Powe clocked their times every hurdle race's time on those days were run Fast none were run slow which makes the ground very much on the good side of good to soft.

Apart from the fact Constitution was a novice V seasoned campaigners who never came out of 3rd gear every other hurdle race was run slow while he was miles faster.

The going stick backs that up as the others were measures at 7. and 6.9 Constitution Hill was run on a 6.00 measurement which is not Good to Soft it is Soft.
at least according to the description issued by the clerk of the course when Espoir D'Allen won in 3min 49 sec with a going stick also 6.0

When Hurridane Fly won the ground was describes as Good to Soft with a going stick of 6.0 he took 3m 59.35s (slow by 10.35s) when winning. Exactly the same going according to both parties against Constitution Hill's 3m 44.35s
Thats 15 seconds @ 4 lengths a second which is simply an amazing 60 lengths.

Taken into consideration all this makes a tremendous difference and everything points to Constitution Hill being a minimum of 10 to 15 lengths faster than any Champion Hurdle winner in living memory.
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If I've learned one thing from the clock-watchers over the years, it's that assessing performance is a lot more subtle than pointing to the overall time a race was run.

If the clock tells you Constitution Hill is a 60L better performer over the Champion Hurdle C&D than Hurricane Fly under identical conditions, then there's only two possible conclusions you can draw. You have either failed to apply the required subtlety to your analysis, or you need a new clock.
 
Seems possible to me that there may have been rail movements which would make such comparisons meaningless anyway. I might be off the mark completely though


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I mean, Long Run clocked a course record 6:29.70 in the 2011 GC, as a 6-year-old. How many lengths, on that bare-bones performance, would he have had to spare over the likes of Arkle, Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman?

Need to be careful about times, especially on the day itself. Champagne Fever bettered The Fly's course time on the first day in 2013 by a couple of seconds - after the ground had ridden pretty quick, once the covers were removed. Subsequent runnings that day showed that the ground had been churned over very quickly. That said, Constitution Hill is a monster, and wins the CH easily.
 
Imo, it would make a difference that CH had nothing take him on up the hill,which invariably makes the task easier, whereas the Fly had Rock on Ruby (in first-time blinds) to drag him along.Horses race against other horses, not the clock.
 
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Grasshopper said:
If I've learned one thing from the clock-watchers over the years, it's that assessing performance is a lot more subtle than pointing to the overall time a race was run.

If the clock tells you Constitution Hill is a 60L better performer over the Champion Hurdle C&D than Hurricane Fly under identical conditions, then there's only two possible conclusions you can draw. You have either failed to apply the required subtlety to your analysis, or you need a new clock.
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you forgot the bit about being hit over the head agressively with the clock
 
There is a fudge factor which takes into account the reliability of the pronouncements of the clerk of the course with regard to going and race distance. Officially known as the Tellwright or, colloquially, as American Pi.
 
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Tanlic said:
Why don't you get your facts straight and keep the sarcasm to a minimum........be a good boy and learn from yer old Da!!!

Monksfield was the last horse to win on the old layout of the old course it has never been run on the new course.

Sea Pigeon was the first horse to win from the change and it was 43 years ago, while Make a Stand won 17 years later.

The second last where Champion Hurdles are won and lost has never been moved and Hurricane Fly who ran on the most similar ground to Constitution Hill and was outpointed by 15 seconds timewise was only a few years ago.

Only 5 horses have broken 3 min 50 sec and none of them ran on ground as slow as Constitition Hill who now holds the course record.

The Gold Cup was switched to the New Course a few years before Arkle came on the scene
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You do know that Constitution Hill and State Man ran on different courses at last years festival.
 
Yes and it's 1/2 furlong longer which is the equivelant of running 3m 80 sec over 2m 1/2 furlong

Add to that the fact he's carrieid almost a stone less and his time doesn't even come close to Constitution Hill's.

His was much faster than Vauban's time but alot slower from 2 out so thime doesn't help much on working out how good he is.

However turn to the form book and he's not in the same parish and the Hill.

He beat Nicky's First Street 1/2 lengths getting a lbs and Col Mustard finished up their backsides.
You will go a long way to find a worse County Hurdle as the next 6 home have won 1 race between them
that was by First Street in a poor grade 3 and the form in that wasn't franked either.

In between Jonbon beat First Ftreet by 23 lengths at Aintree.

The only plus I can give State Man is he is consistant and trained by WPM
his first real test comes on Sunday if he and Honeysuckle turn up and I think she'll murder him for toe.
 
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Tanlic said:
As Truncheon touches on it there's a lot more to it than that. When both Jezki and Annie's Powe clocked their times every hurdle race's time on those days were run Fast none were run slow which makes the ground very much on the good side of good to soft.

Apart from the fact Constitution was a novice V seasoned campaigners who never came out of 3rd gear every other hurdle race was run slow while he was miles faster.

The going stick backs that up as the others were measures at 7. and 6.9 Constitution Hill was run on a 6.00 measurement which is not Good to Soft it is Soft.
at least according to the description issued by the clerk of the course when Espoir D'Allen won in 3min 49 sec with a going stick also 6.0

When Hurridane Fly won the ground was describes as Good to Soft with a going stick of 6.0 he took 3m 59.35s (slow by 10.35s) when winning. Exactly the same going according to both parties against Constitution Hill's 3m 44.35s
Thats 15 seconds @ 4 lengths a second which is simply an amazing 60 lengths.

Taken into consideration all this makes a tremendous difference and everything points to Constitution Hill being a minimum of 10 to 15 lengths faster than any Champion Hurdle winner in living memory.
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I have a lot of detailed Champion Hurdle and Supreme Hurdle pace and speed figure analysis from a few years ago. I have not recorded either for the last few years. So, on this occasion I will use your idea that G/S is always the same over the sticks, which it really isn't.

I do think CH is a very good horse by the way.

That aside, using how you look at times then. Compare Altior's win in the Supreme to Constition Hill's win. Both won on G/S. Altior won in 3m 46s. Constitution Hill won in 3m 44.5s.

So on bare times, CH is 1.5 sec faster than Altior, 6 lbs better?. Then take into account the manner of win. CH was eased, so could be another 10lb on top. Altior also won easily, probably not as impressive as CH, so add 5lb.

When you add those up, CH is better than Altior by approx 10/12 llbs. Altior got a 166 RPR for his Supreme win so it's fair to say Constitution Hill is about a 175/180 horse.

That seems to look right to me.

Your comparison with Hurricaine Fly's time has some flaws in it from what I can see. Saying that CH is 15 seconds better than HF is the stuff of strong recreational drug imbibe imo.

Purely on time and form ratings HF is at this time probably 7lb/8lb inferior to what we have seen from CH. Well, if CH is the best ever, then being only 7lb behind don't look too shabby really.

The 15 seconds better than HF one you come up with is somewhat mystifying to me. I might have missed something.

I don't want to start crunching numbers again tbh, but I have all HFs times and sectionals, I don't right fancy doing them again for Constitutional Hill, I will if pushed.;)

All I have done here is to compare Altior to CH in their Supreme wins, on ground that you say is the same. CH is clearly 180 material just on that flimsyish time and nature of win comparison.
 
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Imo NH times are futile, a point I made when the Fly won his CH (supposedly by, stamina?).
They don't race against the clock in NH racing - ever.
 
reet hard said:
Imo NH times are futile, a point I made when the Fly won his CH (supposedly by, stamina?).
They don't race against the clock in NH racing - ever.
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Absolutel agree that they don’t race against the clock (don’t think they do on the flat either), but they do nontheless set a time and that is informative. If a horse can run the race in three minutes it will beat a horse that can’t all other things being equal. They are not equal, of course, and therein lies the rub.
 
Times are germane on the flat,particularly on sharp,downill 5f tracks,but they often still race against other horses - but few enough obstacles to make measurement viable.
Imo. of course.
 
reet hard said:
Times are germane on the flat,particularly on sharp,downill 5f tracks,but they often still race against other horses - but few enough obstacles to make measurement viable.
Imo. of course.
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There is room for NH time analysis imo. Pace is pace no matter the distance or obstacles jumped. Using your view Reet you would never use 12f races on the flat for pace analysis because it would be viewed as "too far"? Maybe you don't use those races.

I agree though that the flat is way best for sectional analysis, but times over jumps are a part of the jigsaw too, if looked at in a sensible way.

The biggest mistake people make is using bare times compared to official goings, that applies to jumps as as well as the flat. It is flawed doing that.

To make the "ground slow down" effect a level playing field you actually need way more bands than Good, Good to Soft etc. You need many different slices to reflect how much the ground is affecting how horses are being slowed by the surface. When I was doing NH speed figures, I think I used 9 or 10 bands of goings. In Ireland alone, 4 of those were different degrees of heavy to sludge. When it gets really heavy ground on Irish courses the times really show that they race on surfaces that would see UK courses abandon the meeting.

To compare times from different days on the same track you need a going allowance to the nearest couple of lbs per furlong by comparing all races that day. Just reading official G/S one day and expecting it to be the same another day that states G/S is just not very comparable. Even on days where the official ground is Soft and then another day it is officially G/S, that doesn't mean the G/S is faster than the Soft. Clerks do get ground speed wrong.

As per usual, no easy answers, and the further horses travel, the more variables come into play. Overal times and closing sectionals do tell you something though, flat or jumps.

When Denman won the GC, it was a crippling pace that suited his staying nature, he took over at top of hill and flew home whilst most of the others were fooked. The horse in 3rd that day ran well against that hard pace, was leading it, should have finished out the back but kept on, and won a G1 next time when up with a more suitable pace. Neptune Collonge.
 
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Just my view EC, but you can measure times and sections till the cows come home,but they won't tell how good Constitution Hill is (nor the Derby winner,btw) without considering the opposition and how they performed.
 
Grasshopper said:
If I've learned one thing from the clock-watchers over the years, it's that assessing performance is a lot more subtle than pointing to the overall time a race was run.

If the clock tells you Constitution Hill is a 60L better performer over the Champion Hurdle C&D than Hurricane Fly under identical conditions, then there's only two possible conclusions you can draw. You have either failed to apply the required subtlety to your analysis, or you need a new clock.
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I never invented the clock neither did I invent 4 lengths = 1 second. The figures are correct and according to them he would have beaten Hurricane Fly by 60 lengths. Do I think he would have had they both run in Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle? Absolutely no way but he'd have beaten the Fly and co without breaking sweat IMO.
 
Like I said, if I've learned one thing, it's that there are subtleties when it comes to using times to assess merit in Jumps racing.

It should be as clear to you as it is to me, that your "beaten 60 lengths" assertion takes no account of any such subtleties, and is therefore a pointless - and not to say foolish - number to be bandying about.
 
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reet hard said:
Just my view EC, but you can measure times and sections till the cows come home,but they won't tell how good Constitution Hill is (nor the Derby winner,btw) without considering the opposition and how they performed.
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The thing is Reet it seems ir does tell us how good he is or at least according to the bookies it does.

He knocked spots of Honeysuckles time and she was the darling of national Hunt racing last season until the Supreme.

No matter how you lookat it.whether you take the overall time ot the time from 2 out or 3 out he waould have finished miles ahead of the Champion Hurdle field.

Since then albeit a stable companion but a stable companion who had won a Champion Hurdle and been placed also was absolutely anhialated. The same horse who ran Honeysuckle to 3 lengths and would have been closer but for bad jump at the last.

You only need to look at the wow factor or Nicky Henderson's face when he talks about him the guy is too scared to even imagine how good he is.

No horse has impressed me as much bar Arkle and that is how highly I would rate him and I don't need a clock to see that.
 
You could tether a trotting cart to Constitution Hill, and he’d still beat Pied Piper further than State Man did.

State Man clearly high-class, but won’t land a blow in Cheltenham.
 
Could be a great result for racing.........we could see Constitution Hill given as much as a 186 Timeform rating if he beats State Man into a distant 2nd in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Linear form through average horses is a very deliberate way to view things taking race pace and conditions into account.

I think Honey would be a better marker than Epatante certainly

Now to figure out race tactics for March, trotting carts included
 
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