Road To The Champion Hurdle

davidjohnson said:
2 1/2 lengths, 1 1/2 lengths, neck. The distances he has beaten Solwhit on his last 3 starts. That bare form doesn't justify him being a short-priced favourite for the Champion Hurdle. We all have our own views of what the way he goes about things means. For me, his strong travelling nature, doing it mostly on the bridle means he's always likely to be overestimated, something which I thing his current price reflects. Give me a Menorah or Khyber Kim who I know will find plenty when the gun is put to their heads after the second last.
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He came off the bridle at Punchestown and Fairyhouse last time against race fit opposition - finding plenty off the bridle with his head down battling away. It will be harder to actually get him off the bridle once he gets his ground.
 
Do you have any evidence today was not his ground?

I am actually closer to DJs view (I backed him today as he should have been 4/9) - his form with Solwhit drags him down. My main reason for not jumping on his bandwagon is not that I think he won't win, but he should be bigger than Khyber Kim.
 
I am not suggesting he wants fast ground, but a quickener like him coming from the flat will 99% of the time appreciate a sounder surface. To me his most impressive piece of form was when he beat Go Native on ground that was officially described as Yielding To Soft but was verging on good to yielding.
 
I just cannot have Hurricane Fly at such a short price. All he has done is beat the same class of horses for the last two years in Ireland. Solwhit is the second best hurdler in Ireland, and I really don't believe he is a 160+ rated horse. There is a better crop of hurdlers in the UK and I think the form is a hell of a lot stronger.

JohnJ
 
On a similar note, I was very surprised at the paucity of English runners in the Paddy Power chase and in the Lexus.

Especially given the cancellation of the Welsh National and the King George.

I would have thought that the Lexus would have been a nice target for Burton Port, Punchestowns, Pride of Dulcote, What a Friend, Tidal Bay, Weird Al or Carruthers.
 
johnjdonoghue said:
If you use Solwhit as the benchmark, it clearly is.

JohnJ
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What run in the UK are you using as a measure of Solwhit's ability? Surely not his Champion Hurdle run when he blatently ran no sort of race a few days after coming off antibiotics and only just given the nod to run?

In that race he had Medermit less than a length behind him at Cheltenham - at Punchestown he thumped him. Solwhit is a more than fair marker and a fully fit Hurricane Fly played with him today.
 
Hurricane Fly indeed played with Solwhit - only problem with that argument is Luska Lad. Maybe one could give Hurricane Fly an extra 15 pounds or so for ease of victory? :p
 
Hamm said:
Hurricane Fly indeed played with Solwhit - only problem with that argument is Luska Lad. Maybe one could give Hurricane Fly an extra 15 pounds or so for ease of victory? :p
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Luska Lad got his own way in front and was clearly flattered - we see it often in Irish races where they are not spaced out as much due to how the races are run. Hurricane Fly, to me, looks made to excel in a strongly run two mile event on good/soft ground - jumps,travels,turn of foot,battles and stays further. Bar his price he is very hard to knock.
 
This isn't knocking him (I just don't know the answer) - has he ever run in a really strong run race?
 
granger said:
Anyone any idea what they paid for HF?
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I had a quick look and found this: http://www.rhbloodstock.com/winners.php?pageno=2


  • Hurricane Fly
  • Needs no introducing and is already favourite for next years Cheltenham Champion hurdle. I had already seen him at Mr Jean Luc Pelletans yard at Mont-De-Marsan, but when he told me what price he was i thought i would never ever find a client for him. I then went back another time to Mr Pelletans with a view to purchase another horse in his yard which didn\'t pass the Vetting. We we're all so dissapointed and Mr Pelletan didn't want us to leave without buying so he agreed to sell me Hurricane Fly at a reduced price. And what seems to be a reasonable price now that he has paid for himself twice over in prize money.

Guessing £200k?
 
Galileo said:
What run in the UK are you using as a measure of Solwhit's ability? Surely not his Champion Hurdle run when he blatently ran no sort of race a few days after coming off antibiotics and only just given the nod to run?

In that race he had Medermit less than a length behind him at Cheltenham - at Punchestown he thumped him. Solwhit is a more than fair marker and a fully fit Hurricane Fly played with him today.
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Probably a little unfair, but yes he was stuffed at Cheltenham last season, maybe he was not a well horse, but how right was he, I don't know.

What is a little bizzare is the rating he achieved after his Aintree Hurdle win, he was raised 20lbs to 160 for beating United 3.5 lengths. Quevega beat the same horse over 14 lengths at Cheltenham a month prior to that race, she was given a rating of 156. Quevega was then dropped 3lbs for a 3L defeat by Solwhit in the Irish Champion, Solwhit was raised 5lbs for winning the Irish Champion, his current mark is 165.

I am no handicapping expert, but logically this cannot be right, that is my issue, I don't believe Solwhit is a 165 horse, and thats what Hurricane Fly is being benchmarked against.
 
Well then what rating would you give Hurricane Fly in relation to the Champion Hurdle if it was turned into a handicap in the morning? Be interested to know what weight you would put between HF and the top UK horses.
 
As I said, I am no handicap expert, this is what I think: -

Hurricane Fly 159
Binocular 167 - Based on Champion Hurdle Performance
Khyber Kim 164
Peddlers Cross 162
Menorah 164.

JohnJ
 
I think Hurricane Fly is a bit better than that. For me he's one of a glutch of horses around the low/mid 160's. He's lightly raced enough and his style of racing suggests he remains possibly better than that. My take is I'd rather be with a horse with a similar profile with lots of course form that doesn't have a history of training troubles.

Peddler's Cross is the one whose price offends me most. DOn't see what he did at Newbury that makes him any better than a mid 150's horse at present.
 
DJ,

As I said, I am no expert, I will leave that to the professionals. I base my rating of Peddlers based on proximity of Starluck at Newbury, I reckon at Newbury Starluck was race fit, he is best seen on a flat track, and ran to his official rating of 160 IMO. I think Peddlers will improve on a more testing track, and I think he should improve accordingly.

JohnJ
 
Menorah would have no chance in trying to give Hurricane Fly 5lbs, imo. And Peddlars would have an even harder task trying to concede 3lbs.

JohnJ, I think you do Solwhit a bit of discredit, as you clearly have him even further behind this pair than you do Hurricane Fly. Solwhit is no mug. He also beat Punjabi, the Champion Hurdler at the time at Punchestown, and whilst I'm not saying Punjabi is the greatest Champion Hurdler of the age, he was certainly capable of a 160+ rating, and Solwhit is equally so, imo. Using Solwhit to hold down Hurricane Fly's form is not a theory I reckon holds much water.

Even if you're figure is right, you surely have to add a + or p to it, as he was certainly value for more than the winning distance today, and to reflect the authority of the performance?

HF remains very progressive, is not yet exposed over 2m, and is surely capable of better yet. It then becomes a question of how much further he needs to improve to get involved in the finish of the Champion Hurdle. I'd put it at around 6 or 7lbs, and see no evidence in the form book to suggest he will abruptly flatten-out now form-wise.

A strongly run race such as the Champion Hurdle is certain to be well run, and - as Galileo has pointed out - it will suit him very well. He has no stamina issues, and has proven he can quicken off strong pace over the minimum trip (last year's Rabobank probably being the best example). He goes on any ground, and the only real question mark is whether he will act round Cheltenham. Given the variety of courses he has won over (including undulating Punchestown), he should also be given the benefit of the doubt in that regard too, imo.

I tend to agree that 3/1 is a bit parsimonious, but I'd still rather be a backer than a layer at the price.
 
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Fair enough JJ. It's a case with these things if we disagree on one thing, it tends to have a knock on effect with everything else. I don't think Starluck is quite worth 160 personally. Would love it if they went Tote Gold Trophy and we could find out. With no race for Starluck at Aintree, I'd like to see them try him in the Winter Derby.
 
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