Road To The Champion Hurdle

Grasshopper,

I agree with you, I would put a + on Hurricane Fly's rating, Solwhit is no mug, but I really don't think he is anywhere near 165. Punjabi contested extremely weak Champion Hurdles, I would not be going over 160 for Punjabi or Katchit when they were in their prime. I believe this year is the strongest renewal since Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Harchibald and Macs Joy were in their prime.

As I said, I could be completely wrong.

DJ,

I could find holes in my own arguments at this stage, would be good to see him in a handicap, Cheltenham doesn't suit.

JohnJ
 
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Galileo said:
Luska Lad got his own way in front and was clearly flattered - we see it often in Irish races where they are not spaced out as much due to how the races are run. Hurricane Fly, to me, looks made to excel in a strongly run two mile event on good/soft ground - jumps,travels,turn of foot,battles and stays further. Bar his price he is very hard to knock.
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I agree with every word of that. He reminds me of Harchibald but with a finish.
 
Solwhit was given a spectacularly bad ride stuck on the rail off a crawl over 2 miles . HF was still impressive in the style he won though.
 
a machine.

12/1 some price.

As stylish, yet stronger looking form than Hurricane Fly, and more unexposed.
 
Solwhit likely to miss Cheltenham.

Also against a much weaker field Hamm - looked impressive on the day but I'd be very disappointed if Any Given Day was placed in a Champion Hurdle and not convinced that Karabak has run his race.
 
and Luska Lad?

That form looked very strong for Oscar Whiskey, stronger, much stronger than what HF produced the other day, and in an equally stylish manner. And I'm quite sure if everyone was told that was Hurricane Fly, there would be 10+ posts saying he is incredible, unbeatable etc.
 
His third start over hurdles. First even half decent race too. Dunguib was much more experienced (exposed) and had been running in graded races.

The reaction about a non-Hurricane Fly performance says bucketloads.
 
Says buckets loads that it's New Years day! I thought the winner was very impressive and my comment was very much tongue in cheek.

I thought you argued that the Supreme was Dunguibs only real race and that his graded form amounted to nothing?
 
My whole angle was on his price. You had people putting thousands on him at odds on, and there were many more who thought evens was a steal. I never saw it, and argued against him based on people's overinflated opinion of him. There was nothing for him to beat in Ireland last season and maybe that was it.

Oscar Whiskey looks a fantastic prospect and I can't understand the 14/1. He looks a machine.

To put that price into context, does anyone really believe Peddlers Cross would beat that field like that?
 
peddlers won't overcome the FF curse :D

this years CH must be one of the most open for many a day..there is still time for another pretender to show its hand..

oh for the Night Nurse days:cool:

its fair to say we are in a hurdling lull isn't it?..many contenders but not really top notchers

HF looks a classy type but still doesn't convince me tbh...a back to form Binocular would waltz it..what chance he is primed for the day though?
 
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My potential arb on Dunguib is looking better by the day.
Hamm you can't have it both ways Dunguib can't be a complete dud if two of the horses that finished close to him are potential champions.
 
When did I say he was a complete dud? I said he was strongly overrated and the Supreme was as good as he was. Oscar Whiskey was vastly more inexperienced and you also had the chance to see Dunguib get trounced at Punchestown. Horses progress at different rates.
 
Hamm said:
and Luska Lad?

That form looked very strong for Oscar Whiskey, stronger, much stronger than what HF produced the other day, and in an equally stylish manner. And I'm quite sure if everyone was told that was Hurricane Fly, there would be 10+ posts saying he is incredible, unbeatable etc.
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Hamm, you're talking hyperbole here. I was impressed but to say it was much stronger form than hurricane fly is patently nonsense. OW beat a bunch of stayers. I don't see what context would make that much stronger form in relation to the champion hurdle than HF's leopardstown win.
 
Aragorn said:
Hamm, you're talking hyperbole here. I was impressed but to say it was much stronger form than hurricane fly is patently nonsense. OW beat a bunch of stayers. I don't see what context would make that much stronger form in relation to the champion hurdle than HF's leopardstown win.
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High Class 2 and a half milers, not stayers.

My point is easy to prove - compare HFs performance through Luska Lad with Oscar W's through Celestial Halo, Karabak and the McCain horse. Not difficult to see which one ran better, and which one was subject to hyperbole. I am not saying he is the better horse, but lets be fair when analysing races at least, and leave bias and perceived notions out of it.
 
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Grasshopper said:
This kind of bollocks does you no credit whatsoever, Hamm.
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Why is that?

There is a clear bias on here in respect to certain things.

Why is the formbook used, incorrectly in my opinion, to drag down Oscar Whiskey, but discarded when it is convenient for the Hurricane fly assessment? Lets at least look at things in a consistent manner.
 
I don't want to be the spokesman for Dunguib as I am
only backing him as an arb.
In fairness to Fenton I think he knows the horse is a little better then his performance in the Supreme and Punchestown was a serious mistake.
I would be fairly certain that he will run his race against Menorah an Oscar Whiskey.
 
Hamm said:
There is a clear bias on here in respect to certain things.
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Is there? I don't see anyone knocking OW's performance - in fact, contributors here have been very positive about it.

You're the one suggesting that beating Karabak c15L in receipt of 10lbs over 2m4f is indisputably better form in the context of a Champion Hurdle, than anything that HF has in the bag.

That is hugely debatable as a starting position (imo), but the real issue I have is the follow-up statement which suggests that everyone on here has blinkers to the extent that they would be drooling if HF produced the same kind of performance as Oscar Whiskey under the same conditions. Satisfied, maybe, but I'd consider it as irrelevant in terms of contesting a Champion Hurdle with Peddlar Cross, Menorah and Binocular in opposition - in much the same was as I considered HF's win in the Hattons Grace irrelevant.
 
I don't see how anybody can be drawing any meaningful conclusions from the Leopardstown race. The race was falsely run (which accounts for the proximity of Luska Lad) and, impressive as Hurricane Fly was, the way the race was run was always likely to favour him over his only meaningful rival (even moreso considering the bizarre ride Solwhit received).

Shortening him for the Champion market on the back of that performance is absurd (did Hills actually go 7/2 from 11/2?), just as it would be absurd to dismiss him from calculations after a reading of the bare form. The race was a total non-event.
 
Grasshopper said:
Is there? I don't see anyone knocking OW's performance - in fact, contributors here have been very positive about it.

You're the one suggesting that beating Karabak c15L in receipt of 10lbs over 2m4f is indisputably better form in the context of a Champion Hurdle, than anything that HF has in the bag.

That is hugely debatable as a starting position (imo), but the real issue I have is the follow-up statement which suggests that everyone on here has blinkers to the extent that they would be drooling if HF produced the same kind of performance as Oscar Whiskey under the same conditions. Satisfied, maybe, but I'd consider it as irrelevant in terms of contesting a Champion Hurdle with Peddlar Cross, Menorah and Binocular in opposition - in much the same was as I considered HF's win in the Hattons Grace irrelevant.
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GH,
First of all, I never compared HF to OW, merely their last respective races and the reactions to both on here. If you re-read the above you will see that.

Luckily, the above is really easy to iron out ... have a look at the reaction to HF's win on here, and compare it ... By all means show me how this has been balanced between the two, or I can drag up posts if you wish.

HF may well not have had the conditions to produce a good performance the other day (a sentiment I would agree with) but in that case, lets not go overboard. OW produced a better performance today using any kind of race analysis yet the reaction has been much more muted. People will see what they want to see re some horses, yet I prefer to look at what actually happened. In terms of style, there was nothing between both horse's performances, yet there was so much more substance and Cheltenham form in Oscar Whiskey's race.
 
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