Road To The Champion Hurdle

trackside528 said:
I don't see how anybody can be drawing any meaningful conclusions from the Leopardstown race. The race was falsely run (which accounts for the proximity of Luska Lad) and, impressive as Hurricane Fly was, the way the race was run was always likely to favour him over his only meaningful rival (even moreso considering the bizarre ride Solwhit received).

Shortening him for the Champion market on the back of that performance is absurd (did Hills actually go 7/2 from 11/2?), just as it would be absurd to dismiss him from calculations after a reading of the bare form. The race was a total non-event.
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I agree, yet so many creamed themselves at that. Bizarre. I backed HF in that race, and for my mind he should have been 1/2 or shorter.
 
The reaction has been more muted because the board itself has been more muted on the day that is in it. In fact it is you that is bringing Hurricane Fly up straight away after the Oscar Whiskys fine win (I'll say it again).
 
The more the supreme form keeps getting franked the more I am looking forward to Dunguibs return still think he will be a big player come the CH
 
Hamm said:
GH,
First of all, I never compared HF to OW, merely their last respective races and the reactions to both on here. If you re-read the above you will see that.

Luckily, the above is really easy to iron out ... have a look at the reaction to HF's win on here, and compare it ... By all means show me how this has been balanced between the two, or I can drag up posts if you wish.

HF may well not have had the conditions to produce a good performance the other day (a sentiment I would agree with) but in that case, lets not go overboard. OW produced a better performance today using any kind of race analysis yet the reaction has been much more muted. People will see what they want to see re some horses, yet I prefer to look at what actually happened. In terms of style, there was nothing between both horse's performances, yet there was so much more substance and Cheltenham form in Oscar Whiskey's race.
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Hamm, this your problem.

You think the Cheltenham form is indisputably superior, hence you view the Punchestown form as inherently inferior, and therefore think people talking it up are guilty of hyperbole.

It's worth remembering that the Cheltenham form is not necessarily indisputably better. All form assessment a matter of interpretation and opinion i.e. different shades of grey as opposed to black and white. Frankly, it would be fairly straightforward to produce a 'race analysis' which suggested both Karabak and AGD are flattered by their current official marks, and that would drag down OW's performance by default. If I say this is indisputably the case, does that mean it is so?

If you think OW's performance had more substance than HF's, then fine. But please don't try to pitch this view as if it is sacrosanct. It isn't.
 
Euronymous said:
That's a bogus line as that wasn't the real Dunguib.
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I agree - but Hamm cannot have it both ways. Either Dunguib did not run to form at Punchestown (then what is the point of using it as reliable guide to the horse as he tried to do) or Hurricane Fly produced an exceptional performance thumping a horse that finished close up behind Menorah and ahead of Oscar W.
 
Grasshopper said:
Hamm, this your problem.

You think the Cheltenham form is indisputably superior, hence you view the Punchestown form as inherently inferior, and therefore think people talking it up are guilty of hyperbole.

It's worth remembering that the Cheltenham form is not necessarily indisputably better. All form assessment a matter of interpretation and opinion i.e. different shades of grey as opposed to black and white. Frankly, it would be fairly straightforward to produce a 'race analysis' which suggested both Karabak and AGD are flattered by their current official marks, and that would drag down OW's performance by default. If I say this is indisputably the case, does that mean it is so?

If you think OW's performance had more substance than HF's, then fine. But please don't try to pitch this view as if it is sacrosanct. It isn't.
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GH,

First of all, apologies if my view comes across as sacrosanct, that is not what I was aiming for. What I was aiming for was to have a logical comparison of their 2 respective performances, especially in the context of the reactions on here.

What I believe, is that if one would take the time to analyse both races objectively, then only 1 horse could have shown form worth getting excited about for the Champion Hurdle.

Hurricane Fly beat an exposed 149 rated horse 2 and 1/2 lengths, albeit in some style. Lets say he gets circa 153+ for that.

Oscar Whiskey beat:
a 159 rated horse 7 lengths receiving 4 pounds
a 160 rated horse 13 lengths receiving 4 pounds
a 161 rated horse 16 lengths receiving 8 pounds.
a 149 rated horse 19 lengths off level weights

Now, that looks to me like his 4 beaten rivals all look to have finished close to their official marks bearing in mind their respective weights carried, with Any Given Day improving ever so slightly, which can be explained with him looking to be on a upward curve this season.

An assessment on the low side, through Any Given Day, would have OW on 162/163+. However, if we take the view he improved, and it looked to my eyes that the others ran their race (Celestial Halo, for example travelled as well as I have seen him in a long time), then Oscar Whiskey must have ran to 168/169+, as his manner of victory certainly deserves a +, or even a P, as it was just as stylish as Hurricane Fly's run.

My whole argument is not who the better horse is, but on their 2 respective Xmas performances. Does the above make more sense in explaining where I am coming from?
 
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Galileo said:
I agree - but Hamm cannot have it both ways. Either Dunguib did not run to form at Punchestown (then what is the point of using it as reliable guide to the horse as he tried to do) or Hurricane Fly produced an exceptional performance thumping a horse that finished close up behind Menorah and ahead of Oscar W.
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I think Dunguib peaked around or just before Cheltenham as a horse whereas others, Menorah and Oscar Whiskey, were only on the upgrade then, something which has been borne out by their subsequent performances. Of course Dunguib can improve as well, but I personally feel he has had more chances than others last season. I guess we will see can he hit the figures the others have soon enough.

I think a lot of Hurricane Fly, but his performances and the analysis of them need to be put into context imo, rather than saying 'what a turn of foot' etc etc. He has still to hit a figure other market principals have run to, yet gets a very favourable reaction for not doing so.
 
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Hamm, my last word on this (probably not actually :)).

Your argument - in form terms - makes sense if you believe that a) 149 is a fair reflection of Luska Lad's merit, and b) 160+ is a fair reflection of both Karabak and AGD's merit. If you hold those positions, then fair enough.

What you have failed to do, however, is consider the context in which we are discussing Oscar Whiskey's performance. Whilst I'm an advocate of Champion Hurdlers needing stamina, a race like yesterday's is not - imho - any kind of pointer for the race in March.

Types like Karabak and Any Given Day would be beaten like trees in a Champion Hurdle, because they do not possess the required combination of high cruising speed, stamina, and turn of foot. They are essentially stayers as Aragorn said. At best (at best) you might consider them akin to a horse like Al Elie, though even he had considerably better 2m form than any of Karabak or AGD have shown.

What happened yesterday bears no resemblence to what will be required to win a Champion Hurdle - regardless of what you do with the actual numbers. That's the point. Even if you put OW on 165p, you must surely ask yourself the question "Is he capable of such a mark over 2m in Champion Hurdle"?
 
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Okay, lets stay on that point - Solwhit for me is a 2 and a half miler - how does that affect Hurricane Fly's chances - could his races this season not be written off in a similar manner? And wasn't Hurricane Fly's better performance this season over 2 and a half miles as well?
 
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Hamm said:
Okay, lets stay on that point - Solwhit for me is a 2 and a half miler - how does that affect Hurricane Fly's chances - could his races this season not be written off in a similar manner? And wasn't Hurricane Fly's better performance this season over 2 and a half miles as well?
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I can't see how you can write off Solwhit as a 2m4f horse when he has won multiple G1's over 2m. It's that simple. OK, so he ran below form in last year's Champion Hurdle, and won't run in this year's race either, but that doesn't detract from the fact that he has high-class 2m form.

In form terms, I don't think we've learned anything much in either of HF's outings that we didn't know already - that he is versatile in terms of trip, is capable of G1 form at distances between 2m and 2m4f, and that he remains unexposed and progressive at the minumum and (perhaps less so) at the intermediate trip.

Again, no-one on here has said that he has produced CH winning form as yet - only that he has still to be fully extended at 2m, and has already shown form sufficiently good, that further improvement would put him right in the mix.
 
The only horses Solwhit has beaten at 2 miles in the past season and a half are Donnas Palm and Sublimity. The world shakes. He needs further, probably 3m would see him improve, and I feel he is a really weak form line for anyone looking at Hurricane Fly.
 
Hamm said:
The only horses Solwhit has beaten at 2 miles in the past season and a half are Donnas Palm and Sublimity. The world shakes. He needs further, probably 3m would see him improve, and I feel he is a really weak form line for anyone looking at Hurricane Fly.
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......and Celestial Halo and Hurricane Fly and Punjabi.

"Really weak" is a gross misrepresentation, as far as I'm concerned, but each to their own.
 
Again, no-one on here has said that he has produced CH winning form as yet - only that he has still to be fully extended at 2m, and has already shown form sufficiently good, that further improvement would put him right in the mix.
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Shouldnt be fav then

No doubt in my mind that Menorah and OW have improved since last year and cant go back to last years form to run down their chances.

Is this long break really what Dunguib needed? Wouldnt more experience have been preferable?
 
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I didn't say he should be favourite, clivex - only that I can understand why bookies might want to duck him. Also, I'm in agreement that both Menorah and OW have improved since last season.

Not sure why Dunguib hasn't been out. Did he have a minor setback, or did I imagine that?
 
It was a taking performance by Oscar Whisky but off a not all that fast 2m 4f pace - against a horse on the decline , a good handicapper and in Karabak a horse that has just too many off days - he was well below his Relkeel form . I am not sure that tells us very much about how he will get on over 2 miles at Champion Hurdle pace. He was readily outpaced by Menorah last year in the Supreme .
 
Wednesday decision on Dunguib's comeback run


PHILIP FENTON expects to decide on Wednesday whether Dunguib will have his first run of the season in the Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2m3f at Naas on Saturday or wait for the BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown eight days later.

Available at 16-1 for the Stan James Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, Dunguib is one of 16 entries for the Grade 3 at Naas.

Fenton said on Monday afternoon: "We will make a decision on Wednesday. The horse is in good form and never missed a day's exercise during all the bad weather, but he did miss some proper work because of it and the decision we have to make is whether to give him another week and start him off in the Irish Champion instead."

Dunguib, a dual Grade 1 winner as a novice last season, has not raced since finishing sixth on his first try outside novice company behind Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown festival in April.

The entries for Saturday's race also include the Noel Meade-trained pair Donnas Palm and Aitmatov, 2007 Champion Hurdlewinner Sublimity, who was winning for the first time in over two years when scoring at Cork eight days ago, and Shinrock Paddy.
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I would be 2/7 Leopardstown. If he goes there and travels strongly through the race don't rule out some clown taking a chunk of 12 or 10 for the festival on Betfair in running. What price did you back at?
 
LUKE said:
For the sake of my arb I hope he goes to Naas.
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They should definitely go to Naas - no point in taking on the others in his first run back - if he were mine I would try and stretch him out in distance and the Naas race would be ideal over 2m3f. He strikes me and a lot of better judges than I am as a potential staying star- the Champion is just too hot for him especially this year!!
 
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On The Bridle said:
the Champion is just too hot for him especially this year!!
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He was unfortunate last year in that he was positioned in midfield and they didn't go the normal scorching gallop in the Supreme. Obviously he has to have progressed like Menorah has but he'll be right in the mix if he has.
 
Hamm,

I think you're doing Luska Lad a disservice - He is a multiple graded bumper and hurdle winner who is often agressively campaigned. Has he got a UK mark? I bet it would be 4-5lbs higher than in Ireland.
 
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