Road To The Champion Hurdle

Okay. Bobbyjo doesn't like me repeating myself but here we go. Overturn was rated 159 BEFORE the Xmas hurdle. I have shown conclusive analysis of Solwhit's last 6 runs which show he is no more than a 155/156 horse. Hence, one could say Overturn is 3 pounds plus whatever improvement he showed the last day better than Solwhit. Feel free to show me if you think I've gone wrong.
 
Hamm said:
Okay. Bobbyjo doesn't like me repeating myself but here we go. Overturn was rated 159 BEFORE the Xmas hurdle. I have shown conclusive analysis of Solwhit's last 6 runs which show he is no more than a 155/156 horse. Hence, one could say Overturn is 3 pounds plus whatever improvement he showed the last day better than Solwhit. Feel free to show me if you think I've gone wrong.
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How do you rate HF as a matter of interest?
 
4 pounds better than Solwhit but with more to come. Worry is he has been in that category for a while now - sometimes you feel they need to get around to showing it. I think he has 10 pounds plus to find on Binocular, but with a + on his side.
 
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Hamm said:
4 pounds better than Solwhit but with more to come. Worry is he has been in that category for a while now - sometimes you feel they need to get around to showing it. I think he has 10 pounds plus to find on Binocular, but with a + on his side.
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i'm not sure HF has that + tbh..he didn't look like he could take more than 2 lengths out of Solwhit last time..his previous runs look similar with no upward curve

basically HF is turning up and winning with tremedous consistency..not improvement...as soon as he meets a horse that is 3 lengths better than Solwhit,..we might find out what guns HF has

how many hurdlers in the CH betting are 3 lengths+ better than Solwhit?..i'd say a few which means HF has one hell of a stiff task winning at Cheltenham

I think Mullins has given HF a great campaign tbh..but he is a mopper up imo..and i think thats what Mullins thinks too:)
 
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Just been watching the RUK mid term report and just saw the re-run of PC in the Neptune having watched that again the fact he has come off the bridle before Reve De Sivola is a major worry in a 2m race. Also on top of that seeing the fighting fifth confirmed to me what I thought at the time Binocular came to upsides PC on the bridle whilst PC was just coming off so easily and it was lack of fitness that had him beat. I just cannot have PC winning the CH.
 
Kauto said:
Just been watching the RUK mid term report and just saw the re-run of PC in the Neptune having watched that again the fact he has come off the bridle before Reve De Sivola is a major worry in a 2m race. Also on top of that seeing the fighting fifth confirmed to me what I thought at the time Binocular came to upsides PC on the bridle whilst PC was just coming off so easily and it was lack of fitness that had him beat. I just cannot have PC winning the CH.
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Just looking back through this thread Kauto and you called Binoculars FFifth run perfectly and his subsequent improvement to win xmass hurdle! I hope you are wrong here though! He did come off it early in the Neptune but found a huge amount off it - a substantial amount more than Binocular did in his Supreme run two years previously. What consoles me is the improvement (apparently) he has shown since in the FF, his undoubted class and the fact he is the great unbeaten hope of National Hunt racing! He has the size and scope to improve even more which he will have to - maybe somewhere in the region of 5lbs - in a very competitive year I would be delighted for all his connections were he to go and do it. He is a very sporting ew bet at 11/2!
 
Yeah he found loads off the bridle over 2m 5f which is the real interesting thing to me. It might turn out to be a blessing in disguise if he gets beaten as he will certainly make a hell of a chaser future gold cup horse imo. I'm gonna be place laying him if all the main protagonists turn up.
 
Hamm said:
Okay. Bobbyjo doesn't like me repeating myself but here we go. Overturn was rated 159 BEFORE the Xmas hurdle. I have shown conclusive analysis of Solwhit's last 6 runs which show he is no more than a 155/156 horse. Hence, one could say Overturn is 3 pounds plus whatever improvement he showed the last day better than Solwhit. Feel free to show me if you think I've gone wrong.
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In what way is your analysis conclusive, Hamm?

It is merely an interpretation, and no more or less valid than the next man's. By all means have an opinion, but don't try and pass it off as conclusive - it isn't.
 
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So, how do you rate the horses behind Overturn in the Galway Hurdle, a race he was targeted at and was therefore, you would imagine, fully tuned up for. Surely there's some serious handicap good things in there. I mean, how good is Bahrain Storm? Beaten 6 lengths giving weight to Overturn. Does that mean Bahrain Storm would give Solwhit a race. [Oh, he did, beaten 30 lengths..!]

That said, Luke's point about ground difference is a fair one. But there's a serious case, in Hamms corner here, of overrating Overturn to suit an argument. A common theme in such discussions.
 
I haven't looked at Overturn's form as closely (can do later today) but he looks to more than merit the 159 rating judging by his last run behind Binocular, who ran really well (albeit not at his best), and the 159 looks light when you consider the horses behind as well.
 
Grasshopper said:
In what way is your analysis conclusive, Hamm?

It is merely an interpretation, and no more or less valid than the next man's. By all means have an opinion, but don't try and pass it off as conclusive - it isn't.
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The below analysis is conclusive, in that it shows an extremely consistent level of form over his past 6 runs. If we can't agree on the (admittedly easy to come to) conclusions I raised, then we or anyone else in horse racing won't ever agree on anything. As I said to Granger, if you think I have got this wrong, let me know where.

It is becoming more and more apparent to me that Hurricane Fly needs 10+ pounds up his sleeve, which he doesn't have (See EC's point here, I won't repeat). He is becoming more and more of a place lay than anything else. Stopping me do that is I am one of few who thinks Peddlers Cross is slow (see Kauto's post which I agree with on this subject).


I am certainly not suggesting he's rubbish at all, more overrated. This is based on his last few runs where he has beaten (last 6 runs)
Thousand Stars (rated 156) by 2 lengths
Luska Lad (rated 150) by a sh
Voler la Vedette (rated 150) by 1 3/4 lengths
Thousand Stars (rated 156, then 140) by 2 lengths
Binocular (rated 172) beat him by 18 lengths
Donna's Palm (rated 152) by 4 1/2 lengths

These last 6 races show an incredibly consistent line of form, and that the horse is a very consistent 155-156 horse on average, and that Solwhit's OR is wrong, by 7/8 pounds.
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It's far too literal an interpretation of the form in my opinion, Hamm.

It takes no account of the way these races are run, or Solwhit's superiority over those horses who finished behind him.

He is routinely presented at the last still on the bridle, whilst all around him are being rowed along, and as a result he is never going to win by margins which reflect his superiority.

In that respect, he is very similar to Hurricane Fly - just evidently not as good at the minimum trip.

Eaxch to their own, though.
 
Dunguib to get an entry into the Coral Cup. Hardy Eustace had the same back up plan the year he won his first Champion Hurdle.
 
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