Road To The Champion Hurdle

I firmly agree with Grass and Luke here.

It’s madness to suggest that one of the best four or five 2m hurdlers in training shouldn’t line up in the Champion Hurdle simply because he might not win.

Racing wouldn’t be much of a sport if everyone had that attitude, and besides I can’t see any interpretation of the formbook that doesn’t give him a pretty good chance. He’s not a 500-1 Fergus Wilson horse...

Sorry EC1, (and no disrespect intended at all here) but in this instance I just can’t see where you’re coming from at all, and I don’t think there will be many who can.
 
BennyB said:
I firmly agree with Grass and Luke here.

It’s madness to suggest that one of the best four or five 2m hurdlers in training shouldn’t line up in the Champion Hurdle simply because he might not win.

Racing wouldn’t be much of a sport if everyone had that attitude, and besides I can’t see any interpretation of the formbook that doesn’t give him a pretty good chance. He’s not a 500-1 Fergus Wilson horse...

Sorry EC1, (and no disrespect intended at all here) but in this instance I just can’t see where you’re coming from at all, and I don’t think there will be many who can.
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no probs Benny

I suppose I'm using HF to highlight that there is too much emphasis on Cheltenham..when there are plenty of other races for a horse like HF to win

look at Binocular..he is being targetted at one race..will proabbly win..but HF is mopping races up left right and centre

which of these approaches is better for the sport?..a horse going out to compete for TODAYS race..or a series of half hearted runs without todays race as any particular target
 
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There is indeed too much emphasis on Cheltenham EC but I'd say of the horses discussed on this thread you're using the wrong one to highlight it - the horse you should be using IMO is Oscar Whisky.

He's won two soft ground 2m 1f Hurdles as a novice and been beaten by one of the protagonists for the Champion in the Novices equivalent last season, stepped up to 2m 5f he put in what appears a career best performance to beat a very useful 2 1/2m horse in Any Given Day with another decent horse underperforming IMO back in fourth (Karabak) and now despite having the fav for the race Henderson wants to drop the horse back 5f in trip to aim at the Champion rather than the Grade 1 over 2 1/2m at Aintree (Aintree Hurdle).
 
EC1 said:
no probs Benny

I suppose I'm using HF to highlight that there is too much emphasis on Cheltenham..when there are plenty of other races for a horse like HF to win

look at Binocular..he is being targetted at one race..will proabbly win..but HF is mopping races up left right and centre

which of these approaches is better for the sport?..a horse going out to compete for TODAYS race..or a series of half hearted runs without todays race as any particular target
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I agree there’s far too much emphasis on Cheltenham, EC1, but I’d rather see this rectified by horses like Binocular being more aggressively campaigned (for example having a crack at the Irish CH), than horses like Hurricane Fly being less aggressively campaigned by missing Cheltenham.

Surely what racing fans want to see is the top horses taking each other on as often as possible, rather than avoiding each other?
 
Irish Stamp said:
There is indeed too much emphasis on Cheltenham EC but I'd say of the horses discussed on this thread you're using the wrong one to highlight it - the horse you should be using IMO is Oscar Whisky.

He's won two soft ground 2m 1f Hurdles as a novice and been beaten by one of the protagonists for the Champion in the Novices equivalent last season, stepped up to 2m 5f he put in what appears a career best performance to beat a very useful 2 1/2m horse in Any Given Day with another decent horse underperforming IMO back in fourth (Karabak) and now despite having the fav for the race Henderson wants to drop the horse back 5f in trip to aim at the Champion rather than the Grade 1 over 2 1/2m at Aintree (Aintree Hurdle).
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then again..someone will argue that OW should be in it

i'm not saying HF shouldn't be in it..he wouldn't be in it if he were mine is what i am saying

i'd mop up some soft ones..ie where the big guns have kept away as in his previous wins this year.. for the rest of the season and then probably have a go at the CH next year if he shows himself 10lb higher than he is now.

I might even stick him in the Imperial Cup..see if he could give the weight
 
What a load of old balls, EC1.

"You can campaign every other horse aggressively, except this one I don't fancy because I don't think he's not good enough."

Why don't you just decide which horse you do fancy, we can hand the prize over now, and get a good rest between the Arkle and the fourth race on the card. :lol:
 
BennyB said:
I agree there’s far too much emphasis on Cheltenham, EC1, but I’d rather see this rectified by horses like Binocular being more aggressively campaigned (for example having a crack at the Irish CH), than horses like Hurricane Fly being less aggressively campaigned by missing Cheltenham.

Surely what racing fans want to see is the top horses taking each other on as often as possible, rather than avoiding each other?
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but they aren't going to take each other on until the CH..with the way things are..they are going to use the stepping stone approach..to me you have a number of horses that we could see more often that are all heading towards one race where they are going to be 100% just once that season.....only one can win..so its everyone that loses by not seeing these horses much..and when we do its just a warm up for one race per season.


hurdlers can take a bit of running I would have thought....in the 70's they were meeting each other regular..starting with the Fighting Fifth..when it weren't the egg and spoon affair it tends to be now
 
Grasshopper said:
What a load of old balls, EC1.

"You can campaign every other horse aggressively, except this one I don't fancy because I don't think he's not good enough."

Why don't you just decide which horse you do fancy, we can hand the prize over now, and get a good rest between the Arkle and the fourth race on the card. :lol:
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I didn't say he is only one i don't fancy..just being realistic

like i said..if he were mine i'd be taking easy money this season ..and then only if he showed that extra improvement would i campoaign him for a CH

he is a winning machine.

what would you rather have?..him mopping up as he has done or just running twice..once when 60% fit and once a month before teh CH against nowt to put him just right
 
There's always two sides to each argument but it makes more sense to me at least to run the horse with the Grade 1 wins at the trip in the race than a horse who's best performance has come over 5f further.

It's hard to HF to show just how good he is at the moment as outside of Solwhit there's little competition in Ireland - people seem to be marking him down on the basis of one run from Solwhit in last years Champion (where he had an interrupted prep) and given how HF travels in his races and the way he wins them it's hard to tell just how much better he is than Solwhit and co. That said riding S for a turn of foot against a horse who's beaten a Champion Stakes winner and an Arlington Million winner on the flat was never going to be a good idea.
 
Galileo said:
Peddlers Cross, Binocular and Menorah's connections have all said they want to target Cheltenham, Punchestown and Aintree this year - so HF need not bother run in Aintree or Punchestown so if he "can't" win at Cheltenham.

You are talking about Cheltenham being the "be all" and you don't like that - well surely Hurricane Fly's campaign is exactly what you want. Running regularly in Grade 1 races throughout the season while he is fit and well rather than sitting back and waiting for Cheltenham to come. Simply because he is taking in Cheltenham does not confirm your theory that the festival is everything in their eyes when clearly the campaign they have given the horse suggests it is not a one race above all season for them.
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they will have run at Cheltenham though.,.thats the point lol..HF will be raring to go at Aintree & Punchestown.

you can argue all day..if he were mine I'd be leaving CH at least this year

the counter arguments don't hold water with me I'm afraid :)
 
EC, what have Peddlars Cross and Menorah achieved in form terms that Hurricane Fly has not?

Why is the race a logical target for this pair, and not Hurricane Fly? Both have several lbs to find in order to beat an on-song Binocular. Should they also wait another year?
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC, what have Peddlars Cross and Menorah achieved in form terms that Hurricane Fly has not?

Why is the race a logical target for this pair, and not Hurricane Fly? Both have several lbs to find in order to beat an on-song Binocular. Should they also wait another year?
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those two are improving horses..thats the difference at this moment in time
 
EC1 said:
those two are improving horses..thats the difference at this moment in time
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It's your opinion that HF is not progressive.......which isn't something borne out by his recent record. Either way, it's not an excuse to swerve the Champion Hurdle, when he's just racked-up his third G1 win in under two months.

To suggest he isn't good enough to take his chance is just lunacy, imho.
 
Grasshopper said:
It's your opinion that HF is not progressive.......which isn't something borne out by his recent record. Either way, it's not an excuse to swerve the Champion Hurdle, when he's just racked-up his third G1 win in under two months.

To suggest he isn't good enough to take his chance is just lunacy, imho.
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what has quoting G1's got to do with it?..a race is only as good as those taking part..a bare G1 quote means fook all if its only got G2 animals in it

you are missing my point

i've had enough answering anymore on this..you obviously see HF differently to me...and ridiculing my view is all i can see coming from this

so..go and get yer wedge on HF..i'll wish you luck with it
 
EC1 said:
a race is only as good as those taking part..a bare G1 quote means fook all if its only got G2 animals in it
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So....what if it's a G2 race....say the Bula, for argument sake.........with a novice hurdler and a 2m4f horse in it? Would that be the kind of race where a horse might show "improvement"?

Listen, your entitled to your opinion, but you surely see that that's all it is. But even if HF had been scrambling home against Solwhit, he still only needs to find 10lbs (on your own scale).

He could be very well suited by the track at Cheltenham, and improve by that much.

He could benefit from the much sounder gallop of a Champion Hurdle, and improve by that much.

Binocular might fall, and all of a sudden he only has 3-5lbs to find (on your scale).

To suggest he needs to swerve the race and wait 12 months - when you've already suggested his improvement is at an end - just doesn't make sense. It makes much more sense to roll the dice this year, whilst he's at the top of his form (regardless of how you measure it).

It's a plain nonsense that he should give the race a miss. it makes no sense on any level. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
So....what if it's a G2 race....say the Bula, for argument sake.........with a novice hurdler and a 2m4f horse in it? Would that be the kind of race where a horse might show "improvement"?

Listen, your entitled to your opinion, but you surely see that that's all it is. But even if HF had been scrambling home against Solwhit, he still only needs to find 10lbs (on your own scale).

He could be very well suited by the track at Cheltenham, and improve by that much.

He could benefit from the much sounder gallop of a Champion Hurdle, and improve by that much.

Binocular might fall, and all of a sudden he only has 3-5lbs to find (on your scale).

To suggest he needs to swerve the race and wait 12 months - when you've already suggested his improvement is at an end - just doesn't make sense. It makes much more sense to roll the dice this year, whilst he's at the top of his form (regardless of how you measure it).

It's a plain nonsense that he should give the race a miss. it makes no sense on any level. :cool:
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a lot of coulds there really isn't there though

re Bar's point - i didn't think he did win with more authority last time..he looks at this time to be about 2 lengths better than Solwhit..which gives him just a bit better chance than that horse..one fluff at a hurdle could :)...cost you that 2 lengths

how many think Solwhit will finish 2 lengths near the winner this year?

i think there is "one race" target mentality at play here tbh...there is more to life than finishing halfway down a CH field imo
 
EC1 said:
a lot of coulds there really isn't there though

re Bar's point - i didn't think he did win with more authority last time..he looks at this time to be about 2 lengths better than Solwhit..which gives him just a bit better chance than that horse..one fluff at a hurdle could :)...cost you that 2 lengths

how many think Solwhit will finish 2 lengths near the winner this year?

i think there is "one race" target mentality at play here tbh...there is more to life than finishing halfway down a CH field imo
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Jeezus, yer hard work sometimes EC1. :)

What "one race mentality" is at play here? HF has been out three times in under two months, winning all the top-class 2m hurdles in Ireland this season except for the Morgiana. The entirely logical next target for him is Cheltenham, and who knows, he may even take in Aintree before Punchestown (trip well within his compass).

As Gal has said previously, if there is a top-flight hurdler that assuredly doesn't have a "one race" mentality, it's Hurricane Fly. Your arguing everything back to front on this one.

If he's only 2L better than Solwhit, then so be it. But that shouldn't rule him out of participating, which is what you've suggested.
 
Should Sam Whaley-Cohen ride Long Run.
Should JP Magnier have ridden Rhinestone Cowboy.
Should Dawn Run have given the Gold Cup a miss.
Was it right for Florida Pearl and Beef or Salmon to keep running in Gold Cups.
 
LUKE said:
Should Sam Whaley-Cohen ride Long Run.
Should JP Magnier have ridden Rhinestone Cowboy.
Should Dawn Run have given the Gold Cup a miss.
Was it right for Florida Pearl and Beef or Salmon to keep running in Gold Cups.
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You shouldn't have mentioned Beef Or Salmon, Luke - that will really get his motor revving. :lol:
 
There are various reasons why a horse shouldn't go for a race.

Stopped improving
Not good enough form in the book
Not experienced enough
Won't be suited by the race conditions

Assuming you are not way behind on form (Cerium or whatever) I think you need to have three ticks in the above four boxes to rule you out of a race.

Let's look at the 5 Classics winners in England last year.

Workforce wasn't experienced enought in the view of many, and didn't have the form in the book. But he was still entitled to take his chance.

Snow Fairy was arguably not bred to stay 12f, and many didn't think she would have a chance of doing so. But she was entitled to take her chance.

Arctic Cosmos was arguably behind on form, having been beaten in his two previous races, and you could have argued that he wasn't improving once he had established himself as a Group horse. But (mainly on account of the distance) he was entitled to take his chance.

Makfi was miles behind the top rated horses going in to the race. But he was entitled to take his chance.

Jacqueline Quest (ahem) was miles behind the top rated horses going in to the race. She had arguably stopped improving (can you say that about a 3yo in May?) . She is the only one you could say was potentially unworthy of lining up.

I guess what I am saying here is you may be right about HF not winning the CH. You may* be right about HF not improving any more. But he will be suited by Cheltenham, is experienced enough to run in the CH, and is within touching distance form-wise.

Why wouldn't you go?

* You are not right about this either.
 
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