Road To The Champion Hurdle

I don't think Binocular is a 170+ animal. A horse of that calibre would surely have beaten Celestial Halo and Zaynar by half the distance of the straight given how they'd set the race up for him.

At around 9/2 I wasn't going to take the Champ on but I think he could be very short on the day given the hype and the McCoy factor.
 
Is it not an extremely simplistic view to suggest that Hurricane Fly should be beating Solwhit by a greater distance each time. Like...what's the point when the race is comfortably in the bag each time.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't think Binocular is a 170+ animal. A horse of that calibre would surely have beaten Celestial Halo and Zaynar by half the distance of the straight given how they'd set the race up for him.

At around 9/2 I wasn't going to take the Champ on but I think he could be very short on the day given the hype and the McCoy factor.
Click to expand...

Binocular is an OHR 172 horse..must be even higher with TF and RPR

just thinking as well..Binocular and HF have never met have they?
 
Last edited:
Bobbyjo said:
Is it not an extremely simplistic view to suggest that Hurricane Fly should be beating Solwhit by a greater distance each time. Like...what's the point when the race is comfortably in the bag each time.
Click to expand...


if he were swinging on the steel i could agree with you..but HF had to be kept at today to maintain his advantage

it just suggested to me that he really is only a couple of lengths better than Solwhit

he is a very consistent horse now..which i think always gets people's confidence up a bit more when looking at the big race..people love a horse they can rely on..whereas old Binocular you just can't predict him
 
Last edited:
granger said:
Nope, HF is lightly raced.
Click to expand...

I do think HF is a mopper up of nice ..not too hard to win prizes though...he is there to win those races..they aren't trials for the future

I get the feeling that HF is being campaigned in that way..whereas with such as Binocular..the races are just stepping stones
 
I'm also wondering when Solwhit suddenly became so rubbish in everyone's estimation. He went to Chelt last year with a live chance, but was unwell beforehand and nearly didn't run. Then, ran poorly [6th]..but with a reasonable excuse [not saying he wud have won, but better than he showed there]...since then, he's been second to Hurricane Fly 4 times and won the other race. He's no mug.

I'd happily take Solwhit ahead of Overturn anyway. Overturn was running in the Galway Hurdle in August for Gods sakes...and he was getting a few lbs from Bahrain Storm who he admittedly beat by an impressive 6 lengths.

Bahrain Storm was beaten 30 lengths by Solwhit in the Irish Champion last year, and was miles down the field in the County Hurdle.
 
EC1 said:
I do think HF is a mopper up of nice ..not too hard to win prizes though...he is there to win those races..they aren't trials for the future

I get the feeling that HF is being campaigned in that way..whereas with such as Binocular..the races are just stepping stones
Click to expand...


Mullins has often said if they are fit and well, he will run them. Its 50 or so days to Cheltenham, what else would they be doing with him but to pick up a Grade 1 today
 
Bobbyjo said:
I'm also wondering when Solwhit suddenly became so rubbish in everyone's estimation. He went to Chelt last year with a live chance, but was unwell beforehand and nearly didn't run. Then, ran poorly [6th]..but with a reasonable excuse [not saying he wud have won, but better than he showed there]...since then, he's been second to Hurricane Fly 4 times and won the other race. He's no mug.
Click to expand...

I am certainly not suggesting he's rubbish at all, more overrated. This is based on his last few runs where he has beaten (last 6 runs)
Thousand Stars (rated 156) by 2 lengths
Luska Lad (rated 150) by a sh
Voler la Vedette (rated 150) by 1 3/4 lengths
Thousand Stars (rated 156, then 140) by 2 lengths
Binocular (rated 172) beat him by 18 lengths
Donna's Palm (rated 152) by 4 1/2 lengths

These last 6 races show an incredibly consistent line of form, and that the horse is a very consistent 155-156 horse on average, and that Solwhit's OR is wrong, by 7/8 pounds.
 
Last edited:
Hurricane Fly is a very energetic type of horse, who is progressing well. He’s still not in my front three for the Champion though. I doubt whether he’s the match for Binocular or Menorah on better going when it comes to pure pace. Plus I don’t really like his tendency to jump to the right for Cheltenham.
Peddlar’s Cross could still be anything. So for me there’s just no room in the frame for Hurricane at Cheltenham as things stand, which makes Hurricane bad value from my point of view.
 
Last edited:
Watched the race three times. The jumping confused me. He was very quick and effiicent over every hurdle, but as Ardross says, he went out to the right (not markedly).

The race proved that HF can lie up with and quicken off a fast pace, but also maybe that he doesn't find a huge pile off the bridle. Townend gave him a few smacks at the 100y marker to keep him going.

I don't know what to think other than this is an extremely open Champion Hurdle, with all the main protagonists fit, well and winning. As was pointed out earlier, the fact that Solwhit didn't give his running in the CH last year makes it difficult to get a handle on how close HF is to Binocular. Peddler's and Oscar Whisky only have tentative collateral form lines with the other major contenders.

Menorah has rock solid form, and Binocluar has done it already. HF has the ex-factor and I suspect that his "+" might be worth more than the average +. But so might Peddler's Cross's "+".

The race of the meeting.
 
I'm beginning to believe the Champion isn't as open as most seem to believe it is. I think the winner will have to run to a very high mark, so it is competitive in that sense. But only a couple or perhaps three will be capable of putting up what's required.

So I pretty much think Menorah will win if Binocular doesn't, unless Peddlar's Cross is the new Night Nurse.
 
Trainer said he [HF] jumps right but less so when there are others around him; hope he gets to Cheltenham; we always go on the Tuesday..best day of the week imo and even more so this year. Can't wait.
 
Steve,

I don't think PC, OW or HF would need to be Night Nurse to beat Menorah and Binocular. The two you mention set a high standard, but not an insurmountable one. PC, OW and HF show definite potential in reaching that standard. If anybody was to state that they believe either of those 3 will be a 1 in 20 years brilliant hurdler, you can't argue with them, as the potential is there (maybe not with OW). We have not got to the bottom of PC and HF.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Steve,

I don't think PC, OW or HF would need to be Night Nurse to beat Menorah and Binocular. The two you mention set a high standard, but not an insurmountable one. PC, OW and HF show definite potential in reaching that standard. If anybody was to state that they believe either of those 3 will be a 1 in 20 years brilliant hurdler, you can't argue with them, as the potential is there (maybe not with OW). We have not got to the bottom of PC and HF.
Click to expand...

I'm saying if PC is the new Nignt Nurse he will win (as I can't tell how good he might be).

If PC is not as good as I think he might turn out, then I think Binocular or Menorah set a very good standard clear of the rest. I simply don't think that HF and the others are (or will be come March) as good.
 
Last edited:
Pricewise gone for Mille Chief at 20/1 in todays RP for this in value terms but AP very impressed with HF



Hurricane Fly registered his third Grade 1 success of the season and seventh in total when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday and McCoy was impressed by the performance.

Binocular remains the clear favourite for the Champion Hurdle at around 3-1 but Hurricane Fly's latest eyecatching win has seen him harden as second favourite and he is now as short as 7-2.

McCoy said: "Hurricane Fly is an exceptional horse and he is the one that everybody at Cheltenham is going to have to worry about.

"If you owned him you would be struggling to pick any holes in him. He has won over two and a half miles, he has got pace and he probably goes on any ground, so he has got the lot.

"With Peddlers Cross and Menorah too, it is going to be an exciting Champion Hurdle if they get there but Hurricane Fly is the one that I am going to have to worry about."

McCoy was pleased to see Binocular return to winning form in Kempton's rearranged Christmas Hurdle on ground that he believes would not have suited the seven-year-old. He told At The Races: "I was thrilled with him. It was a long way off his Champion Hurdle form but it was a progression from what he achieved at Newbury. When I rode him at Newbury he was very fresh.

"At Kempton it was the sort of ground I'm sure not a lot of horses like so I thought the best thing to do was to ride him handy, but good horses are easy to ride."
 
Hamm, you still haven't responded to my comments on your assertion that Overturn would beat Solwhit, based on what Overturn beat in the Galway Hurdle and his ability relevant to those horses you mentioned...
 
Sorry ... Didn't realise. Does my analysis of Solwhit as a 155/156 horse and Overturn's improvement and Xmas hurdle run explain? That makes him better than a 156 horse.
 
No but he has won good races and tremendous prize money.if he raced against Solwhit on soft ground in Ireland over any distance he would get hammered but 2 miles on decent ground at Cheltenham could be a different story.
 
Back
Top