Road To The Champion Hurdle

Idled like you wouldn't believe, didn't jump as quickly as you would expect a future champion but I'm still happy with my antepost position. Reading between the lines McCain has a month to freshen him up and get him to concert pitch which I believe he can and will. I will be getting deeper involved at 6/1 and any 13/2 will be more than welcome!!:cool:
 
I just want it to be over. It's that long since I backed Menorah for this on the day he last ran, I've forgotten why I fancied him.
 
On The Bridle said:
Idled like you wouldn't believe, didn't jump as quickly as you would expect a future champion but I'm still happy with my antepost position. Reading between the lines McCain has a month to freshen him up and get him to concert pitch which I believe he can and will. I will be getting deeper involved at 6/1 and any 13/2 will be more than welcome!!:cool:
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its got the FF hoodoo to overcome;)..be careful
 
I doubt he will impress, and whilst he may be available to back at 14s with the bookies after tomorrow, I can't see too many on the exchanges wanting to back him at that price, hence could be difficult to trade out.
 
Just looking at the final declarations and it's a very disappointing turnout.Anything less then 10 lengths hard held will be disappointing.
 
I can't believe Oscar Whisky is still 14/1. He looks to have everything, and will have Geraghty on board, which is a major plus. He has shown better form than Mille Chief and Hurricane Fly, one shorter and the other significantly shorter than what he is. There has (thankfully) been little hype around this horse, and I fancy him to run a huge, huge race.
 
Hamm said:
I can't believe Oscar Whisky is still 14/1. He looks to have everything, and will have Geraghty on board, which is a major plus. He has shown better form than Mille Chief and Hurricane Fly, one shorter and the other significantly shorter than what he is. There has (thankfully) been little hype around this horse, and I fancy him to run a huge, huge race.
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EC1 has been singing his praises and I think he's going right to the top but at the moment I think it will be as a 3 miler but saying that I'm struggling to see who could run to 172+ in this years champion hurdle.
 
swedish chef said:
EC1 has been singing his praises and I think he's going right to the top but at the moment I think it will be as a 3 miler but saying that I'm struggling to see who could run to 172+ in this years champion hurdle.
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I think that Hamm was keen on him before me - but as he says..can't believe the 14/1

i do think there is improvement in his runs so it would be no surprise to see him better his rating..something that can't be said for most of the runners.

The CH is often won by an improver in the years where we aren't in a good hurdling period.

Its a fascinating contest for sure
 
Hamm said:
I can't believe Oscar Whisky is still 14/1. He looks to have everything, and will have Geraghty on board, which is a major plus. He has shown better form than Mille Chief and Hurricane Fly, one shorter and the other significantly shorter than what he is. There has (thankfully) been little hype around this horse, and I fancy him to run a huge, huge race.
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Better than Hurricane Fly? Really?!

I like this horse a lot but I don't think he's shown the same level of form as HF.
 
Aragorn said:
Better than Hurricane Fly? Really?!

I like this horse a lot but I don't think he's shown the same level of form as HF.
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He's shown better. Imagine there was no such thing as the media etc who invariably build up certain horses over others. Solwhit is central to how high we can rate Hurricane Fly, and I believe he is overrated, and his rating, and hence that of Hurricane Fly, has gone unquestioned.

The below is something I posted which I believe shows Solwhit to be a 155/156 horse. Hurricane Fly has had plenty of chances to beat him by further but has not been able to - once or twice winning easy I am comfortable with a 'p' or a '+' - he has had his chances to show he is a 165 (never mind 170) horse but hasn't been able to do it.

I am certainly not suggesting he's rubbish at all, more overrated. This is based on his last few runs where he has beaten (last 6 runs)
Thousand Stars (rated 156) by 2 lengths
Luska Lad (rated 150) by a sh
Voler la Vedette (rated 150) by 1 3/4 lengths
Thousand Stars (rated 156, then 140) by 2 lengths
Binocular (rated 172) beat him by 18 lengths
Donna's Palm (rated 152) by 4 1/2 lengths

These last 6 races show an incredibly consistent line of form, and that the horse is a very consistent 155-156 horse on average, and that Solwhit's OR is wrong, by 7/8 pounds.
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Hamm said:
He's shown better. Imagine there was no such thing as the media etc who invariably build up certain horses over others. Solwhit is central to how high we can rate Hurricane Fly, and I believe he is overrated, and his rating, and hence that of Hurricane Fly, has gone unquestioned.

The below is something I posted which I believe shows Solwhit to be a 155/156 horse. Hurricane Fly has had plenty of chances to beat him by further but has not been able to - once or twice winning easy I am comfortable with a 'p' or a '+' - he has had his chances to show he is a 165 (never mind 170) horse but hasn't been able to do it.
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You have put some very good arguments forward Hamm recently...some of the best I've seen on here tbh..good stuff
 
Hurricane Fly isn't the type of horse who will ever win by huge margins because of the way he's ridden. He's the hurdling equivalent of Sea the Stars.

After Dunguib wins tomorrow it will be obvious why OW is 12s and 14s.
 
Euronymous said:
Hurricane Fly isn't the type of horse who will ever win by huge margins because of the way he's ridden. He's the hurdling equivalent of Sea the Stars.

After Dunguib wins tomorrow it will be obvious why OW is 12s and 14s.
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HF beat Go Native by 10 lengths..so not sure why you think he is a horse that doesn't win by his superiority

how will Dunguib winning change anything?
 
Euronymous said:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497796&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
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that was a long time ago in realtion to his career regarding OW..if you are taking that as OW's ceiling then you are saying that there is no improvement in the horse

the point about the whole game is that horse's improve..especially over hurdles..that improvement can be measured in OW's case..it can't in HF's case where his form is exposed

do you really believe that OW will never be a better horse than that?

is Dunguib a reliable yardstick?..I could see him losing tomorrow actually
 
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He is an older horse, but we have to remember that the Supreme didn't pan out for him with the slower than normal pace and the dubious tactics employed. He's better than the bare result and I'd far sooner have 20s on him than 14s on Oscar.
 
As far as I recall the Supreme was the same pace for every horse - it wasn't like Dunguib was out the back, he just wasn't good enough on the day, and was in no way unlucky.
 
Unlucky isn't the term I'd be after, but he's a horse ideally suited to being held up off of a fast pace. He didn't get that at Cheltenham and going the long way round didn't help either. Obviously his lack of a run is not ideal but he's too classy an animal to be 20/1. Worth taking a chance.
 
Without having analysed the from, i woudl imagine that there are a good few horses that finished around OW that day who are not running to his level of form now

He had a bit of promise last year, but hes clearly more the complete animal now. As you would expect
 
LUKE said:
Just looking at the final declarations and it's a very disappointing turnout.Anything less then 10 lengths hard held will be disappointing.
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I think Luska Lad will give Dunguib plenty of it tomorrow and would not be one bit surprised to see him beat him. LL has ten pounds on him on official ratings and will love ground and track - Fenton is at pains to say he needs the run whereas Shark knows his fella is more than ready. This is no foregone conclusion by any means.
 
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