Road To The Champion Hurdle

LUKE said:
When was the last time that there was hype surrounding Dunguib.Please direct me to any media hype over the last 6 months.
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I never said media..i'm talking about punters :)

he is one of the most overhyped horses over the jumps amongst them

if you rate todays race off the 3rd it don't look that smart..but i'm sure I will be told its CH winning form shortly;)
 
Grasshopper said:
EC1, Celestial Halo is only a 160 horse if you rate the race through Mille Chief, and have faith that his OR of 158 is correct.
Presumably this is your view.

If, however, one questions the 15lbs Mille Chief was raised for his last outing, and figure him to be a fair bit short of 158, then it's perfectly reasonable to consider CH to have run below 160.

You seem to think that you're view of the form is infallible and not open to question. It isn't.
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I don't think its far off 160 Grass..I'm not arguing that I'm right..I'm saying that the horse was being laughed at on here a week ago..and now its time to admit he ain't quite the donkey people thought he was.

I still think OW has done well beating him double figure lengths..that view looks better in light of todays performance because it shows CH isn't quite as bad as people thought..only Binocular has handed him a similar beating...which means OW is a real contender and not a 14/1 shot for the big one
 
I'm sorry but that race was awful. CH is on the downgrade and still would have beaten Mille Chief with a better jump at the last. The latter is way more overhyped than Dunguib and should be 25s for the Champion. The only reason he went below that price is because Segal tipped him up, but Tom doesn't know his arse from his elbow when it comes to Conditions events.
 
EC1 said:
I never said media..i'm talking about punters :)

he is one of the most overhyped horses over the jumps amongst them

if you rate todays race off the 3rd it don't look that smart..but i'm sure I will be told its CH winning form shortly;)
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That's not true he has been available at 20s for the last 4 months.I told every punter I know that he was an unbelieveable arb and the reaction was mostly negative.
I'm fairly sure nobody has hyped him on this
site.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm sorry but that race was awful. CH is on the downgrade and still would have beaten Mille Chief with a better jump at the last. The latter is way more overhyped than Dunguib and should be 25s for the Champion. The only reason he went below that price is because Segal tipped him up, but Tom doesn't know his arse from his elbow when it comes to Conditions events.
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its only nonsense because it didn't suit you though Euro..a poor view of the race by you imo

like i said before..when I'm wrong..i admit it

Mille Chief is an improving horse..not some yak..thats some run by CH today..probably better form than Dunguibs race..a race you think was better..which is a joke to me tbh

i'm going for a lay down :)
 
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Grasshopper said:
But it's only not nonsense because it suits you though, EC1.
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a simple look at both races will tell you what is nonsense

run yardstick handicapping or race standardisation over both races..I know which race will rate higher

but why let facts get in the way?..just call the race that doesn't suit..rubbish..and move on to the next bias view of a race next week:)

there isn't much point debating much really is there?..maybe we should just stick to..that race were rubbish coz one of me favourites didn't win it:lol:

it doesn't really "suit" me which horse wins what tbh..but when I'm being told black is white then I will put an argument forward

i also know how to admit when I'm wrong..thats an alien concept with a few of you guys by the looks of it:)
 
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The Red Mills was not a strongly run affair and Dunguib was just given the one slap to put Luska Lad away.

At Wincanton the front two pulled away because Ronaldo got tired on his first run of the season and Silvaniaco Conti wasn't lucky enough to be up against Karabak this time.

You're being too literal with distances EC.
 
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For me -Silviano Conti was obviously expected to run well and was such a disappointment
there must a doubt if he will run again this season.
Overturn was another disappointment and the stable has had a few run flat in recent days.
Ronaldo des Mottes will be hard to win with.
Celestial Halo was the story of the race-big return to form.they surely regret not entering him for the Champion Hurdle-the handicapper will surely put an extra few pounds on his back if he runs in the County Hurdle.
Mille Chief struggled to win and it's hard to see him getting competetive in the Champion.
 
The Red Mills was all about Dunguib and how his opponents were going to try and beat him.Davy Russell set a slow pace on Luska Lad while Dunguib bided his time.His jumping is still a concern but with a view to Cheltenham his jockey rode him into the last and he took it well.
He should have plenty of improvement in him and he is definitely
worth taking to Cheltenham -he has realistic chances of getting placed.
 
I'm surprised at the tactics the Shark employed today with Luska.....go slow and hope he pulls hard. Luska had no chance off a slow pace dumbo!! Today proved that Dunguib has the potential to run above 160, nothing else. I still think he will be found out, jumping wise, on better ground and also with his jock. Binocular still in the driving seat for me. The fly could get in the ointment though, although he still has to prove he can beat something other than Solwhit.
 
Euronymous said:
The Red Mills was not a strongly run affair and Dunguib was just given the one slap to put Luska Lad away.

At Wincanton the front two pulled away because Ronaldo got tired on his first run of the season and Silvaniaco Conti wasn't lucky enough to be up against Karabak this time.

You're being too literal with distances EC.
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if you think i'm taking those distances literally then you must have me down as a simpleton:)

i will say though..is that the same Silvaniaco that wasn't beaten too far behind Menorah?
 
EC1 said:
its getting harder to debate stuff on here i'm finding..losing heart with it
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A debate is where two alternate viewpoints are discussed, EC1.

Your problem - in this instance - is that you think that your argument prevails above all others, and that anyone who puts forward an opposing view which collides with it, is either taking the slash, being bloody-minded/wilfully ignorant, or merely a clown.

You don't know how to debate - that's why you find it hard. Instead of debating, you dole out shite like "When I'm wrong I admit it", which infers that you consider counter-arguments worthy of apology. That's not debating. It's being an arse.
 
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Grasshopper said:
A debate is where two alternate viewpoints are discussed, EC1.

Your problem - in this instance - is that you think that your argument prevails above all others, and that anyone who puts forward an opposing view which collides with it, is either taking the slash, being bloody-minded/wilfully ignorant, or merely a clown.

You don't know how to debate - that's why you find it hard. Instead of debating, you dole out shite like "When I'm wrong I admit it", which infers that you consider counter-arguments worthy of apology. That's not debating. It's being an arse.
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I'd take your comments more seriously if you regularly dished out "Dad" advice as above to others on here ..but you don't

people who put out in depth opposing views will get respect from me..people who just use generalisations won't..I can't see an issue there..if i'm spending time putting an argument forward and all I get is a one line generalistic load of corner cutting spiel..then yes..it pisses me off..because i think i'm just wasting my time.

you say i don't know how to debate..well i beg to differ..see i just debated that . disagreeing with you:)....but there isn't debate here a lot of times..there is just x race is rubbish coz it don't suit..thats not debate....and thats why I disagree with it:)
 
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The Kingwell and the Novice Hurdle were the fastest per their class over hurdles so its a fair crack to compare their times..seeing as the distances in the Kingwell are over exaggerated by the looks of it..see I did spot that:)

time analysis is very useful here

Smad Place [ohr 147] ran 5.5 seconds slower than Mille Chief and carried 11.0..Mille Chief carried 11-2..Smad could probably have done a better time if pushed harder..so I'll knock 1.5 seconds off..thats being really generous:)..but we need to have a realistic view of what a 147 horse could run.

Mille Chief is then 24 lbs superior to SP re the time difference..6lbs per second....this needs 7 lb knocking off though to allow for 9lb wfa in total....was already carrying 2lb more..which makes Mille Chief a 147+17 rating purely on the clock..and thats with a second and half knocked off...

so Mille Chief is a 164 horse on that run today..and thats being conservative imo

Dunquib's race isn't rateable on the clock..so rating off LL makes him a 164..but rating off Gimli's Rock makes him only a 153..I'd favour using LL over GR due to the slow pace probably flattering GR a little..so I would say the bare form makes Dunguib somewhere between 158-162 ish

I think to dismiss the Kingwell is folly..just because some have underperformed it doesn't mean its crap..the time shows that the two who fought out the finish are pretty decent..not as decent as the distances they beat the rest of course:)

pity they haven't got CH in the CH:)..as he gave weight to MC
 
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Mille Chief's ratings for last two runs are 145 - 158..and imo 164 today ..are the clear signs of an improving hurdler..

I don't normally bother Ante Post but I have had some on at 17.0

he's a real contender imo
 
Euronymous said:
I can only presume the official handicapper was on the funny stuff when he rated Smad Place 147.
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the chepstow race is working out quite well though isn't it?

even if if he is only rated 137..which is too low imo.. i've knocked 1.5 seconds off anyway..and that is mighty generous as comfy winners are unlikely to knock that off if fully pressed

he beat a 137 horse 27 lengths Euro before that and same horse 13 length at Chepstow
 
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EC1 said:
I never said media..i'm talking about punters :)

he is one of the most overhyped horses over the jumps amongst them

if you rate todays race off the 3rd it don't look that smart..but i'm sure I will be told its CH winning form shortly;)
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EC1 said:
Luke & Euro..could you put a rating on the winner of both races?
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I don't do ratings or study form in the conventional sense-I also believe time only matters when you are in jail.
 
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