granger
Senior Jockey
I believe the naked eye is the best tool you can possess. If you enjoy ratings and they work for you embrace them. At the end of the day, they are completly down to indvidual interpretation.
Road To The Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
EC1
On a break
looking into why Vagador ran it faster would have been a way round ignoring them.
i'll have a gander
now ..if MC wins the CH maybe I can bring you back into the fold
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
That's because most everyone else on here can agree to disagree on a race/formline interpretation. You're unique in your capacity for thinking disagreeing with you is tantamount to a personal attack on you - hence why I take extra care to show you alone, the path of righteousness.
I have no interest in your time analysis, by the way. Never have, never will. I think time analysis generally is a load of misleading bollocks, and it's all built on sand as far as I'm concerned. My position on this is well established. I could go so far as to say that, when I put forward a collateral-form argument, and all I get in response is a load of clock-related twaddle, it pisses me off - but that would be untrue. I don't get pissed off, I just don't believe such analysis has any inherent worth.
What I don't do when my theorising is challenged, is ladder my tights, throw a strop, and weep salt-tears because no-one is taking me, me, me! seriously enough.......I just move on.
You might want to try that approach yourself - you'll get less wound up.
ratings are useful as a starting point but without working at it 24/7, hard to really see how the usual ones can be much improved upon. its the "other" factors that come after the ratings which tilt the balance more than that for me
Must admit, times over the sticks dont interest me at all. Maybe 2 year old flat outs on the sand, but gets too messy after that
Im too busy anyway
Must admit, times over the sticks dont interest me at all. Maybe 2 year old flat outs on the sand, but gets too messy after that
Im too busy anyway
On The Bridle
At the Start
Times have to matter - and time analysis by EC1, Nick Mordin etc. are hugely important - especially sectional times, where races are run at different tempos. Anything to get an edge. Times of races are the first thing I look at in results - then distances - then ground.
EC1 has been vindicated in using CH as a somewhat reliable yardstick - It may be CH is a better horse over 2m and is not crying out for a trip as some of us have previously thought. He may also like Wincanton. I would have to agree with his assertion that the Wincanton race today was a better one that Gowran. It certainly had a better field and they went a fair old clip all the way from flagfall.
Where I would disagree however is where Mille Chief is a considered a bet for the Champion - he has no chance of running to a rating in the l70's which is going to be necessary to wun this race.
I am also fearing that my great white hope Peddlers may just be find himself in a stable running out of form at the wrong time!!:blink:
EC1 has been vindicated in using CH as a somewhat reliable yardstick - It may be CH is a better horse over 2m and is not crying out for a trip as some of us have previously thought. He may also like Wincanton. I would have to agree with his assertion that the Wincanton race today was a better one that Gowran. It certainly had a better field and they went a fair old clip all the way from flagfall.
Where I would disagree however is where Mille Chief is a considered a bet for the Champion - he has no chance of running to a rating in the l70's which is going to be necessary to wun this race.
I am also fearing that my great white hope Peddlers may just be find himself in a stable running out of form at the wrong time!!:blink:
EC1
On a break
That's because most everyone else on here can agree to disagree on a race/formline interpretation. You're unique in your capacity for thinking disagreeing with you is tantamount to a personal attack on you - hence why I take extra care to show you alone, the path of righteousness.
I have no interest in your time analysis, by the way. Never have, never will. I think time analysis generally is a load of misleading bollocks, and it's all built on sand as far as I'm concerned. My position on this is well established. I could go so far as to say that, when I put forward a collateral-form argument, and all I get in response is a load of clock-related twaddle, it pisses me off - but that would be untrue. I don't get pissed off, I just don't believe such analysis has any inherent worth.
What I don't do when my theorising is challenged, is ladder my tights, throw a strop, and weep salt-tears because no-one is taking me, me, me! seriously enough.......I just move on.
You might want to try that approach yourself - you'll get less wound up.
you are going to far now with this personal stuff
have we done with this shit now Grass?
wtf exactly do you think you are ?
i'll do what you do..say wtf i want..when i want to..i don't need you telling me how to behave or how to debate
if you don't want to parlais with me or you disagree..then do what you need to do..but your view of me means bugger all when all i can see you are doing is to try and score a few points off me and curry some favour with your fans by making personal comments about how i conduct myself
its fook all to do with you how i respond to anyone
Last edited:
swedish chef
At the Start
Chepstow Novice
Marsh Warbler 145+
Houblon Des Obeaux 142+ Ran almost to the lb to win today
Smad Place 141+ I don’t think he had run to that mark to win today
Sam Winner 138 – ran at a time when the stable horses had just had all their winter jabs and often run below par – same applies to Dolatulo
Dolatulo 128
Ive got Mille Chief running 159+ and Celestial Halo 163 today(Appreciated drop back to 2m and clearly loves the track)
I work out my figures by searches for horses that have run to their mark or close to it and working around them rather than times looking for horses whose trainers were in form at the time. C Halo clearly doesn’t stay 2m4f imo. This will probably differ from your time comparisons – I’d be interested by how much.
I’m currently finding holes in Menorahs form on O/R’s and struggling to get him in the mid 160’s – I need more time with this though – be interesting to see what you think about that.
There’s clearly a problem with the McCain yard as well.
EC1
On a break
thats very interesting stuff Chef..cheers
How did you get a rating for Mille Chief today?..it looked a tough one to me without using the times..and obviously they are reliant on putting an accuarte mark on what level Smad Place ran to today.
With an accurate value for SP..I wouldn't tamper with knocking 1.5 seconds off for ease of win etc.
whatever rating Smad Place ran to today..using the full time difference equates to that rating + 26lbs..this allows for wfa
using your 141+ as a decent marker for SP..its probably fair to say he ran 5 lbs or so below that today..136 + 26 would make MC a 162..not too different to your rating
Interesting comments about Menorah..if you want to discuss that one then throw it in Chef
swedish chef
At the Start
That was a slight guestimate but I rated Mille Chief's last run 1lb lower than the O/R, I also took into account what I truly thought a spot on Celestial Halo could run to with his ideal conditions - also the time of Celestial Halo's last C/D win under similar conditions. Finally I had to believe Mille Chief ran to a couple of lb higher today - the other 3 in the race didn't come close to running their races.
I was tempted to possibly go a couple of pounds higher.
I was tempted to possibly go a couple of pounds higher.
swedish chef
At the Start
I'll discuss Menorah another day as I would need to just concentrate on him - unfortunately I keep finding the holes when he appears and I'm studying other horses - give me a few days.
No surprises there then.
Disappointing Conti out of Champion Hurdle
BY STUART RILEY 10:29AM 20 FEB 2011
PAUL NICHOLLS has scratched star five-year-old Silviniaco Conti from the Champion Hurdle after the Potentis Limited-owned son of Dom Alco disappointed at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle on Saturday.
Disappointing Conti out of Champion Hurdle
BY STUART RILEY 10:29AM 20 FEB 2011
PAUL NICHOLLS has scratched star five-year-old Silviniaco Conti from the Champion Hurdle after the Potentis Limited-owned son of Dom Alco disappointed at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle on Saturday.
My thoughts exactly over the past day. I'm beginning to be against Menorah, and even more against Cue Card. The Supreme, like recent years, could offer a whole lot of value..
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
In which case - if it's a free-for-all - you might want to consider stopping giving-out to people who you claim try to make you look ridiculous. Presumably they are just as entitled to say whatever the fook they want too.
Give it a rest with this perpetual victim mentality you have, ffs. I am not trying to score points, and I have no "fans" with whom I'd like to "curry favour". Jeezus wept.
Getting back to the Champion Hurdle, Silviniaco's run yesterday hinted at what I was concerned about post-Bula i.e. that the form of that race might not be all that strong in terms of the Champion Hurdle chances of the main protaganists.
It would be dangerous, however, to dismiss Cue Card's Supreme Novices chance on the back of any Bula re-assessment. The race isn't entirely worthless, and Cue Card has probably run to low-150's on even a muted interpretation of the form - and a similar effort would have won plenty of renewals of the Supreme Novices over the years. He is still the one to beat in the opener, as far as I'm concerned.
EC1
On a break
Grass
my apologies - you wound me up a bit
i'm sorry ok - lets put this stuff behind us and I'll try to be a little more condusive to more constructive debate in future
Can I just ask a question?..IF CH had not run yesterday what rating would Mille Chief have got?
my apologies - you wound me up a bit
i'm sorry ok - lets put this stuff behind us and I'll try to be a little more condusive to more constructive debate in future
Can I just ask a question?..IF CH had not run yesterday what rating would Mille Chief have got?
EC1
On a break
Bothy is a 136 horse which makes menorah a 163 horse..which is about the mark it could be argued that MC ran to yesterday or Dunguib depending on how you rate it
I think running in handicaps gives punters more of a chance of analysing the form..thsoe behind run more often so you get chance to scrutinise them a little more than the Binoculars of this world..who tend to run in uncompetetive trials where you just aren't sure of the worth of the form..small filed..soft pace etc
I think when a horse wins a competetive handicap giving weight it captures the imagination more than a 5 runner jog and sprint..but I think it can also overrate horses ..in people's mind..a little ...due to this "impressive" feat of giving lumps away in a true run race
I'm not running Menorah down..I wish they all would run in competetive races so we could get real handles on them
this is why I think it folly to ignore yesterdays win by MC..that race was run fast like a handicap..so is a good measure of the horses.
Last edited:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
No, he's no numpty. Menorah won the Greatwood off 151 and if we take it as read that he had ten pounds in hand to win such a boffo handicap then that puts him in the mid 160s tops. I can't see how you'd rate him any higher than that on the Bula run. He's the sort of horse who'd have been good enough to win a Champion Hurdle in Katchit or Punjabi's years. Like a number of people have said it'll probably take a 170+ performance to win this renewal however.
EC1
On a break
do you think SC ran to the same form yesterday as he did in the Bula though?
that race is a way back now..SC could have any amount of changes to his fitness..attitude..since the Bula..he might have been at his best there...and at his worst yesterday
EC1
On a break
but what if Menorah has improved since his last run..which could be argued as a step upfrom the Greatwood form..what if he steps up again from that..the classic improving profile
when you get that upward curve..you don't know whats left..i think MC and OW are on an improvement curve too..these are the types of horses that win CH's...unless you have a rock solid hurdler already at the top..which we may have in Binocular
Its a very competetive CH..the established complete animal in Binocular..and the up and comers who we don't know yet have reached the top of their improvement
Last edited:
I'm at a loss to understand the above. Surely nobody would argue that that in itself made Vagador a better horse than Celtic Shot. It probably merely demonstrated that that year's Champion Hurdle was relatively slowly-run and that as a result the form might not stand up and, as we know, Celtic Shot didn't turn out to be one of the more illustrious winners of the race, did he?
Those who say they pay no attention to times are being a tad disingenuous. Even if they take no heed of speed figures, they'd have to consider the pace scenario when assessing past and future races. Who doesn't look, for example, at the runs yesterday of Third Intention and Sprinter Sacre and consider how they'd fare off a likely stronger pace in their respective Cheltenham targets?
EC1
On a break
Gus
On every board I've posted on you get people who won't accept speed figures mean anything - its as though its an anorak domain...a bit nerdy and not masculine at all
i'm surprised really because on this board such as Warbler demonstrated on numerous accasions just how useful they are..Rail Link being one example.
I don't particulary think yardstick handicapping is what its cracked up to be..but I use it so I can see where people are coming from..otherwise I could do the same and say they are a complete waste of time as they don't predict to the nearest nth what a horse is capable of.
You always find as well that people expect speed figures to be to the nearest millionth of an inch..or they are worthless..whereas that kind of accuracy is not demanded with any other form of handicapping
dismiss tools at your peril is my thinking tbh
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
No sweat.
Right or wrong, I have discarded the Kingwell as an event of Champion Hurdle relevance, and have not bothered rating it. That's exactly how I would feel about the race whether Celestial Halo ran or not.
Neither Overturn nor Silviniaco ran their races, and both are probably over-rated anyway from an OR viewpoint; the former due to his win in a valuable handicap and close-up second (never a threat) to Binocular.......and the latter for running Menorah close in the Bula, after looking every every inch a stayer at Ascot the time before.
The Pipe horse was never going to be a factor, which leaves Mille Chief (questionable OR, imo) and Celestial Halo (inconsistent at best and on the downgrade at worst, imo) to rate the race around.
As far as being a pointer to the Champion Hurdle, it's about as bad an event to draw firm conclusions from as I can think of. The only genuine notion I have is that the outcome probably damages the Bula form a bit, though that is something I had already questioned following that race anyway.