Road To The Champion Hurdle

EC1 said:
do you think SC ran to the same form yesterday as he did in the Bula though?

that race is a way back now..SC could have any amount of changes to his fitness..attitude..since the Bula..he might have been at his best there...and at his worst yesterday
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SC certainly a stayer rather than a genuine 2-miler, but the Bula was a much stiffer test than the Kingwell, and - all other things being equal - it's natural that he would show better form at 2 miles round Cheltenham, than round a sharp track like Wincanton.
 
I see Skelton got 7 days for the beating he gave CHalo. It was a horrendous ride to watch and he appeared to be rolling all over the place in the saddle. Not good enough to be riding horses of this quality and as for his ride on What a Friend....
 
Bothy is a 136 horse
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Who will be raised from that mark after Friday surely? That was a very competitive race too of course. How much will he go up for that and then what are we llooking at menorahs rating being?

But agree EC1. Saying menorah is only mid sixties tops (because that is what he has sort of run to so far) is assuming that hes simply not going to improve. Thats a nonsense
 
.......and the latter for running Menorah close in the Bula, after looking every every inch a stayer at Ascot the time before.
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Hardly call that five length victory "close"
 
clivex said:
Who will be raised from that mark after Friday surely? That was a very competitive race too of course. How much will he go up for that and then what are we llooking at menorahs rating being?

But agree EC1. Saying menorah is only mid sixties tops (because that is what he has sort of run to so far) is assuming that hes simply not going to improve. Thats a nonsense
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was he more than a 136 when Menorah beat him though?

its not a straight forward job this handicapping game is it?:)
 
Yes. On a line through Any Given Day and that ones subsequent creditable runs, i would say so..on balance

Also Bothy would have been nicely fit from the flat too
 
Using the effort of Silviniaco Conti to pick holes in the Bula form is rather misleading imo. Had he been beaten 5/6 lengths perhaps, but in being beaten 24l he clearly was affected by something that prevented him from giving his true running.

We already knew prior to Saturday that the bare form of the Bula can be picked at. It was steadily run and horses like Clerks Choice and Astracad weren't beaten far enough to be able to take a high view of the form. But Menorah's Champion Hurdle claims aren't like Binocular's in that the rest on what he has done and whether he'll reproduce it, it's far more a case of recognising he's an improving horse with just 2 runs in open company, one in which he gave almost 2 stone to a Tote Gold Trophy runner-up and the other in which he left some very good, albeit not top-class rivals for dead between the last 2 hurdles.

No way can you say any of his form is better than low 160's at present, and if that's all he can do he won't be winning any Champion Hurdles, anyone siding with him is buying into the potential that he'll improve a good bit yet, as he remains entitled to do so.

I have him backed and also decided yesterday to have a little on Oscar Whiskey. I'd rather back these low 160 horses that we don't yet know how good they are than the high 160's ones that we do.
 
LUKE said:
Gus -I have told you I pay no attention to speed figures and I can't see how that makes me disingenuos.
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No, with respect, what you said was "I...believe time only matters when you are in jail" and "I stopped taking time seriously...etc." It's true that you did go on to say that time figures don't work for you but my point is that nobody assessing a race, past or future, can ignore the pace at which it has been or is likely to be run. A truly-run race and a race run at a crawl are quite likely to produce very different outcomes - we all know that - and that applies whether or not you choose to put a figure on it.
 
Greatwood - using Olofi who ran almost to the lb on his previous C/D & going run.

Menorah 157+
Bothy 130+
Manyriverstocross 139+
Any Given Day 140
Olofi 130

International Hurdle using Cue Card & Silviniaco Conti

Menorah 160+
Cue Card 155+
Silviniaco Conti 158 (needs further)
Clerks Choice 151 (needs good fast ground)

Ascot 30 Oct
Dunraven Storm 142+ ( was running consistently to this mark)
Recession Proof 138+ (proved to 4-5lb well in Totesport Trophy)


Chelt 12th Nov
Cue Card 151+
Dunraven Storm 143

Totesport Trophy - conditions suited first five home
Recession Proof 138
Bothy 137 - I think he improved 7lb for his Greatwood run and there was a lot of strong tips about for him on the day to this effect.
Notus De La Tour 144
The Betchworth Kid 141
Soldatino 150

I did nap Recession Proof on another board on the day but confess to not having a bet as everyone I knew was on Bothy but unless you believe Bothy ran to 136 in the Greatwood and Menorah didn't improve in the International - then I'm struggling to get Menorah into the mid 160's. I do believe he's capable of it but has he got 10-12lb improvement in him to win a CH?
 
Bothy 137 - I think he improved 7lb for his Greatwood run and there was a lot of strong tips about for him on the day to this effect
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Asi said before, thats rather convenient isnt it...

and even if he has, he has run tp mark beyond the 7lb rise i reckon (as will the handicapper of course)
 
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It's not about convenience Clivex - I could be wrong but thats how I see it. Come March I'll find out if it's right or wrong - It's only one man's opinion.
 
I thought there was a lot to like about Dunguib's performance yesterday, particularly the way he hurdled once Luska Lad quickened it up. He looked more accomplished and a bit more relaxed than last year. I think he's a player.

Can't have Mille Chief, he'll finish midfield I reckon.

I'm still in the Peddlers Cross camp though. This years Champion is going to be a hard race run at a searching pace and I think it will be ideal for him.
 
Just watched the Dunguib race there now - what was Davy Russell at - did he seriously think he was going to beat Dunguib for toe???:confused::confused:

I know he will improve but that run is stones below what it will take to win a CH. Cannot have him at any price - his jumping early on was very poor indeed!!!
 
I saw the Dunguib race for the first time on Monday night, and I was distinctly underwhelmed. I saw nothing in that race to scream Champion Hurdle.

His profile does remind me of Sublimity in his first season out of novice company, though. However, I think only a madman would get involved at 12 to 14/1.
 
Yes, but that Sublimity Champion Hurdle was as bad as it gets. This one has the potential to be at the opposite end of the spectrum.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I saw the Dunguib race for the first time on Monday night, and I was distinctly underwhelmed. I saw nothing in that race to scream Champion Hurdle.

His profile does remind me of Sublimity in his first season out of novice company, though. However, I think only a madman would get involved at 12 to 14/1.
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Profiles very very similar - one subtle difference is the hype.
 
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