Road To The Champion Hurdle

OK.....I'm finished jousting with EC1. :cool:

We're not likely to learn too much between now and the race itself, so here's Grasshopper's 'Quick Capsule Review' of the Champion Hurdle.

Binocular
Last year's renewal looks weaker on paper now than it did at the time, but even if he turns up in the same kind of form, he still has a shot at winning this year. He is either inconsistent, or trained with only the one race in mind, but even if it's the latter, he is going in against horses with profiles as progressive as his was last season. Impossible to rule out, and the one they have to beat - although this is largely down to question marks as to how much improvement remains in others, rather than any huge form superiority. Deserves to be favourite.......just about.

Hurricane Fly
Is still the biggest unknown quantity. Although Solwhit has been on the receiving-end of some unwarranted trashing on here, HF is clearly going to have better 2milers to beat at Cheltenham. If the literal form with Solwhit is as good as he is, he will need others to under-perform to be up to winning a Champion Hurdle. If, as I hope, he has more improvement in him, then he has only a handful of lbs to find to put himself in the mix.

Menorah
Comes into this with the kind of profile I love in a hurdler. Top novice form, followed by top handicap form - which has since been franked in another handicap - and a ready winner of the Bula, when stepped-up into open company. I was a bit sceptical about his chances after the Bula, but the Greatwood form has had plenty of boosts, and I'm now of the opinion that both Menorah and Cue Card probably ran to seriously good figures in the race. If I wasn't fully commited to Hurricane Fly already, he's the one I would be backing. I will have him in f/c's with HF.

Peddlars Cross
Has everything you would want in a Champion Hurdler - except for a turn of foot. I can see him staying on strongly after getting done for toe coming down the hill, but he won't be able to stay on the bridle for long enough, to be up to winning this.

Oscar Whisky
Whilst the form of his two wins this season have taken some knocks (notwithstanding Celestial Halo's mighty efforts at Wincanton and Fontwell :D), he won both races with penty in hand. To be honest, I'm probably just as impressed with his 4L finish behind Menorah in last year's Supreme, than I am with anything he has done since. And whilst he has certainly shown improvement this season, I suspect that Menorah has probably shown improvment which is more easy to validate and have confidence in. I've not seen anything to suggest that he can readily turn that form with menorah around either, and so have to be against him on those grounds. Anyone on at 20/1+ has themselves a fair bet, but I'm not interested at current odds.

Dunguib
Similar comments apply to Dunguib as applied to Oscar Whisky - insofar as last year's Supreme is concerned. And similar comments apply again in that I can't really see how he can finish in front of Hurricane Fly.

The only other potential runner of interest is Khyber Kim - though one would only be playing for reasonably remote place chances.


These are my last comments on the thread until the race is over.....or until EC1 posts. :lol:
 
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Good post Grass. I'm in big on Hurricane too. He does have to improve to win, I think he is more than capable of it.

2 things - Will Townend keep the ride on HF and will Ruby get the spare ride on Peddlers?
 
I sincerely hope that Townend keeps the ride, Granger - though I suspect he may have to settle for a good spare in Peddlars Cross.
 
Grasshopper said:
OK.....I'm finished jousting with EC1. :cool:

We're not likely to learn too much between now and the race itself, so here's Grasshopper's 'Quick Capsule Review' of the Champion Hurdle.

Binocular
Last year's renewal looks weaker on paper now than it did at the time, but even if he turns up in the same kind of form, he still has a shot at winning this year. He is either inconsistent, or trained with only the one race in mind, but even if it's the latter, he is going in against horses with profiles as progressive as his was last season. Impossible to rule out, and the one they have to beat - although this is largely down to question marks as to how much improvement remains in others, rather than any huge form superiority. Deserves to be favourite.......just about.

Hurricane Fly
Is still the biggest unknown quantity. Although Solwhit has been on the receiving-end of some unwarranted trashing on here, HF is clearly going to have better 2milers to beat at Cheltenham. If the literal form with Solwhit is as good as he is, he will need others to under-perform to be up to winning a Champion Hurdle. If, as I hope, he has more improvement in him, then he has only a handful of lbs to find to put himself in the mix.

Menorah
Comes into this with the kind of profile I love in a hurdler. Top novice form, followed by top handicap form - which has since been franked in another handicap - and a ready winner of the Bula, when stepped-up into open company. I was a bit sceptical about his chances after the Bula, but the Greatwood form has had plenty of boosts, and I'm now of the opinion that both Menorah and Cue Card probably ran to seriously good figures in the race. If I wasn't fully commited to Hurricane Fly already, he's the one I would be backing. I will have him in f/c's with HF.

Peddlars Cross
Has everything you would want in a Champion Hurdler - except for a turn of foot. I can see him staying on strongly after getting done for toe coming down the hill, but he won't be able to stay on the bridle for long enough, to be up to winning this.

Oscar Whisky
Whilst the form of his two wins this season have taken some knocks (notwithstanding Celestial Halo's mighty efforts at Wincanton and Fontwell :D), he won both races with penty in hand. To be honest, I'm probably just as impressed with his 4L finish behind Menorah in last year's Supreme, than I am with anything he has done since. And whilst he has certainly shown improvement this season, I suspect that Menorah has probably shown improvment which is more easy to validate and have confidence in. I've not seen anything to suggest that he can readily turn that form with menorah around either, and so have to be against him on those grounds. Anyone on at 20/1+ has themselves a fair bet, but I'm not interested at current odds.

Dunguib
Similar comments apply to Dunguib as applied to Oscar Whisky - insofar as last year's Supreme is concerned. And similar comments apply again in that I can't really see how he can finish in front of Hurricane Fly.

The only other potential runner of interest is Khyber Kim - though one would only be playing for reasonably remote place chances.


These are my last comments on the thread until the race is over.....or until EC1 posts. :lol:
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Nice write up Grass :cool:

couple of bits i disagree with like..but ;)..

you didn't mention the winner though :D
 
Good stuff Grassy.

Excellent post.

I am a Peddlers fan, have been since he won the Neptune last year. I am a Hurricane Fly sceptic, and probably a Solwhit trasher. I actually am not a trasher of Solwhit, I just don't think he is a mid 160s horse, but I could be totally wrong.

Menorah is an excellent horse, one little worry is the fact he hasn't been seen since December, will he be too fresh, and pull too hard as he has done in the past?

Binocular has really only had this race on his radar, was a very impressive winner last year.

I couldn't pick the winner at this stage, suffice to say, I backed Peddlers in April last year, so every horse is a winner in my book. I just cannot wait for the race.
 
Maybe Celestial is capable of winning off a higher mark than the 120's I suggested earlier in the thread.

Good run from him yesterday - seems to have turned a corner since I started slating him, maybe I should try the same with the Hurricane lol
 
It's between Binocular, Menorah and Khyber Kim for me; preference for the latter two as Binocular appears to be getting a bit cute at times nowadays.
 
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I'm not sure Granger ... they had him undercooked in Punjabi's year, and last year they seemed to get lucky the week beforehand - I wouldn't say they particularly knew what they were doing (and I am a fan of Henderson).
 
GH,
That preview of yours was well written and enjoyable to read.

However, I think you're wrong to say Solwhit has received an unwarranted trashing on here ... I have posted up what I think conclusively shows him to be 155-156 horse. Now, I know you like Hurricane Fly but you apply (very good) logic to your analysis of all the other horses, but refuse to do this when analysing Hurricane fly and hence Solwhit - why?
 
I'm not sure whether any of those reasons make him "quite likely" to run a stinker, Bar.

HF has form on ground ranging from Good to Heavy, left and right-handed, and on undulating tracks too, and should therefore be given the benefit of the doubt.

The rest is just a question about the level of his form. If he's not good enough, it doesn't necessarily equate to him running a stinker - he could run right up to and beyond his current level, and still not be good enough. :cool:
 
Hamm said:
GH,
That preview of yours was well written and enjoyable to read.

However, I think you're wrong to say Solwhit has received an unwarranted trashing on here ... I have posted up what I think conclusively shows him to be 155-156 horse. Now, I know you like Hurricane Fly but you apply (very good) logic to your analysis of all the other horses, but refuse to do this when analysing Hurricane fly and hence Solwhit - why?
Click to expand...

The clue to the answer is in your question, Hamm - the key phrase being "what I think......".

I personally don't agree with your "conclusive analysis" of Solwhit's level at 2m, that's all. I think you have the horse under-estimated, based largely on a Champion Hurdle performance where he was unable to do himself justice, and on Irish performances where the margins to the beaten horses were not reflective of his superiority.

It's a simple case of different interpretations. There is nothing sinister in this, and I (hope I) have been as objective as I can be about Hurricane Fly's chances. I simply think he has lots more to give at this level. :cool:
 
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