Road To The Champion Hurdle

I think Binocular is one of the few you can be virtually certain will run well. This is his race and he reproduces his best form in it. He slaughtered them last year and just failed the year before. He's virtually guaranteed to be at least placed again.

Menorah should also run well. I can't be sure how close Peddler's Cross will be, but I'm not ruling him out. Khyber Kim seems a big price could well be thereabouts again, I'd agree.
 
He slaughtered nothing though. Given where McCoy started pushing from a top Champion Hurdler would have beaten Zaynar by further imo. Not only was the latter a bit pants over 2m, he was a bit too close to the pace also.
 
Peddlars is more likely to run a stinker than Binocular. He is going to have a new jockey on board who isn't going to know how the horse responds especially when he comes off the bridle early in the CH as they are going too quick for him. Some jockeys even in the CH aren't going to knock the horse about if they think his chance has gone.
 
Euronymous said:
He slaughtered nothing though. Given where McCoy started pushing from a top Champion Hurdler would have beaten Zaynar by further imo. Not only was the latter a bit pants over 2m, he was a bit too close to the pace also.
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With no disrespect I don't know how people can be quite so glib in saying this. It was the Champion Hurdle. He has won it once and went incredibly close the time before. He virtually certain to run well as far as I'm concerned. If he doesn't win again he'll be bang there.
 
I realize it was a Champion Hurdle, but I don't see Binocular as a lot better than Katchit or Punjabi. Reason enough to take him on given the strength we have in the race this year.
 
Those horse you mention put up championship performances on the day. Some of us even fancied them to win at big prices. You should never knock a horse for winning a championship. You can't really ask for more.

I backed Punjabi heavily at 33s when he won, but thought Binocular a shade unlucky. I see no way on God's earth that Binocular will run a bad race in this. He is one of the quickest and most efficient at his hurdles that I've seen.
 
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I'm trying not to knock those horses (although it's hard with Katchit because Osana was the first leg in a tidy double with New Approach) but I just think more will be required by the reigning champ this time round.



SteveM said:
He is one of the quickest and most efficient at his hurdles that I've seen.
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Were you looking the other way when Make a Stand won this:cool:
 
Binocular
has run well in the Festival 3 years in a row but his form in general is the one of an inconsistent, I think he will find2 or3 to beat him at least.


Hurricane Fly
the moreI see the race the more I think he isthe one,hehasbeenvery consistent,he fits almost every trendand the only slight doubt is that he has not course form, butstyle of racing and the hil should suit , as hestayslonger distances and dont mind the ground, he also has the best jockey around.Stable flying is also a bonus.


Menorah
very good course form, has to improveat least 7 pounds to win but age on his sideand lightly racedm, he is the main danger for Mullins horse.




Thousand Stars, could be an interesting long shot, I dont discard Ruby on him andonlythat would shorten the price, theform is better than some people think and has Festival form.
 
Grasshopper said:
The clue to the answer is in your question, Hamm - the key phrase being "what I think......".

I personally don't agree with your "conclusive analysis" of Solwhit's level at 2m, that's all. I think you have the horse under-estimated, based largely on a Champion Hurdle performance where he was unable to do himself justice, and on Irish performances where the margins to the beaten horses were not reflective of his superiority.

It's a simple case of different interpretations. There is nothing sinister in this, and I (hope I) have been as objective as I can be about Hurricane Fly's chances. I simply think he has lots more to give at this level. :cool:
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its this more to give that I base my CH selections on most years Grass

over the years out of all the races at Cheltenham the CH has been my most profitable..the Gold Cup a damn sight less.

my main angle is rate of improvement

years ago we seemed to have a lot of this fast improvement with hurdlers..possibly they were getting doctored I don't know..I don't mean any winners of teh CH by the way:)

I'll go back a good few years..I used to look out for hurdlers moving up in class and still winning when not favourite..ie they needed to improve to beat their apparent chance

in one season alone i backed a fair few..two were from one small stable..i'd better not name them as i don't want to get any trouble..but both these hurdlers improved about 3 stone thoughout the season..winning race after race

i don't see this that often these days..last CH winner I backed that had a fast imroving profile was Collier Bay..you could easily measure his improvement each race

going back to what you say re HF..I don't see the same improvement in him..compared to say Mille Chief who has clearly got that upward profile..yes he has to improve but if you plot his rise on a graph its still climbing..whereas HF would have a near on level line

so i can see why few fancy MC because the form isn't there yet..but given a similar improvement in his next run to his last two runs he is bang there imo..yes there is a bit of faith required but i find if you can just project that past improvemnet to future races you can get a good picure of what might be possible.


MC is a big price because he hasn't got 165+ form in the book yet..its expecting that to come that gets you on horses others reject imo

I would put OW in this upward curve as well..hence think one of them will win.
 
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Euronymous said:
The whole Champion Hurdle experience - the better ground, better opponents and higher tempo of racing will bring out the best in the horse.
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but whereas i can see other horses improving..there is no evidence of that..in fact i could say that every horse in the race will also improve for all those reasons..why is only hf going to improve for those reasons and not others basically

what tells you he will improve for those reasons
 
He's a high class horse with a high class pedigree who has a terrific engine and travels like a dream. A fast run championship race will suit him down to the ground. He'll be the last horse to come off the bridle.
 
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I acknowledge stats are there to be broken and there's a first time for everything etc etc but the one thing putting me off Hurricane Fly is that none of Montjeu's progeny have ever won at the Festival.
 
Euronymous said:
He's a high class horse with a high class pedigree who has a terrific engine and travels like a dream. A fast run championship race will suit him down to the ground. He'll be the last horse to come off the bridle.
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there is not really any evidence of any of that though..what is high class?..its just a generalistic term that doesn't tell me anything..I'd say there are probably 3 or 4or more "high class" hurdlers in there..but i don't really know what that means..is it measureable?

how do you know he will be the last horse off the bridle for instance?..i can't really see how you have come to that conclusion
 
EC1 said:
its this more to give that I base my CH selections on most years Grass

over the years out of all the races at Cheltenham the CH has been my most profitable..the Gold Cup a damn sight less.

my main angle is rate of improvement

years ago we seemed to have a lot of this fast improvement with hurdlers..possibly they were getting doctored I don't know..I don't mean any winners of teh CH by the way:)

I'll go back a good few years..I used to look out for hurdlers moving up in class and still winning when not favourite..ie they needed to improve to beat their apparent chance

in one season alone i backed a fair few..two were from one small stable..i'd better not name them as i don't want to get any trouble..but both these hurdlers improved about 3 stone thoughout the season..winning race after race

i don't see this that often these days..last CH winner I backed that had a fast imroving profile was Collier Bay..you could easily measure his improvement each race

going back to what you say re HF..I don't see the same improvement in him..compared to say Mille Chief who has clearly got that upward profile..yes he has to improve but if you plot his rise on a graph its still climbing..whereas HF would have a near on level line

so i can see why few fancy MC because the form isn't there yet..but given a similar improvement in his next run to his last two runs he is bang there imo..yes there is a bit of faith required but i find if you can just project that past improvemnet to future races you can get a good picure of what might be possible.


MC is a big price because he hasn't got 165+ form in the book yet..its expecting that to come that gets you on horses others reject imo

I would put OW in this upward curve as well..hence think one of them will win.
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Two things are of import to me as far as Mille Chief is concerned.

Firstly, I don't think scrambling home a short-head from a thoroughly-exposed animal like Celestial Halo as the mark of a horse on an upward progression curve.

Secondly, even if he is on an upward progression curve, it is a lot shallower than you think, and he has far too much ground to make-up to trouble the main players.

All in my opinion, of course.

I've said all I need to say about Oscar Whisky. I can't see how he can finish in front of Menorah.
 
EC1 said:
there is not really any evidence of any of that though..what is high class?..its just a generalistic term that doesn't tell me anything..I'd say there are probably 3 or 4or more "high class" hurdlers in there..but i don't really know what that means..is it measureable?
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What is the term "upward profile" if not generalistic? Is that measurable?

how do you know he will be the last horse off the bridle for instance?..i can't really see how you have come to that conclusion
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Probably because on all the evidence we have available, he travels on the steel all the way, and only ever needs shaken up at the end of his races. The only time he hasn't found plenty was in the 2009 Morgiana, in his first race in open company.
 
Grasshopper said:
What is the term "upward profile" if not generalistic? Is that measurable?



Probably because on all the evidence we have available, he travels on the steel all the way, and only ever needs shaken up at the end of his races. The only time he hasn't found plenty was in the 2009 Morgiana, in his first race in open company.
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upward curve is easy to define..last 3 runs 140/148/156 = upward curve

now can you define..he has a classy pedigree and is a classy animal

and when defined can you tell me how many lbs "more class" HF has than the others

i think you have to look at MC's previous runs up to beating CH..the upward curve..he has improved in class each run....if CH is 12 lengths worse than Binocular then MC has to improve 12 lbs..thats entirely possible..when you look how some horses improve 2 to 3 stone in a season

you might be right of course that it is too much to improve..but at 18/1 i'll take me chances..whereas HF is way shorter and no evidence he too can improve 8/10lbs
 
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and on Irish performances where the margins to the beaten horses were not reflective of his superiority.
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How many performances will it take before the margin does eventually reflect "his superiority"?

do horses that have not had too many tough experiences respond as well as the ones that have? It can be a tough fight to the line in the CH and cant help wondering whether there is a real advantage in having been there done that
 
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clivex said:
How many performances will it take before the margin does eventually reflect "his superiority"?
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thats interesting..because CH won comfy on Sunday..but rather than credit him with having more authority than the winning distance..he's pulled down to the bare minimum rating possible on here

how can one horse win comfy..and only be deemed worth the distance won by whilst another wins at full stretch but has some hidden superiority?

its a good un int it?
 
clivex said:
You choose the horse and fit the argument around his performances ..thats how
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we all do that to an extent..some are really good at it though:)

I been thinking whilst reading this thread..just how fookin difficult this game is

there are about 6 horses that all of us are really chewing the cud about and we all have our differing opinions..these are all horses we know a fair bit about

and yet we would never agree a concensus ..it just shows how even when you are "specialising" in one group of horses..in this case top ones..its so hard to make concrete decisions

what chance have you got if you didn't specialise is my point?..hundreds of horses you know a lot less about than these

tough game int it?
 
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EC1 said:
thats interesting..because CH won comfy on Sunday..but rather than credit him with having more authority than the winning distance..he's pulled down to the bare minimum rating possible on here

how can one horse win comfy..and only be deemed worth the distance won by whilst another wins at full stretch but has some hidden superiority?

its a good un int it?
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I'm not getting dragged into an irrelevant discussion about Celestial Halo again, but to try and answer the question, the respective races are run differently.

Celestial Halo was a comfortable winner on Sunday going by the commentary, but he seemed to out no more daylight between himself and the second in the last two furlongs, after leading a long way out.

Solwhit (and I guess HF too) on the other hand, is routineky presented at the last flight of a race going better than anything else, and is no more than shaken-up to assert on the run-in.

I think the fundamental difference is that you (EC1) view Solwhit/HF as being all-out to win these races, whereas I see horse who win with plenty to spare.

Clive makes a valid point about how much they will actually find if the gun is put to their respective heads, but all the racecourse evidence I've seen so far suggests both will find plenty when properly let down. The best exames I can think of are Solwhit in the Aintree Hurdle and HF in the most recent running of the Hattons Grace.

PS. Mille Chief was rated 158 going into the Kingwell, EC1. Personally, I think that's too high a figure (and said so before Wincanton) and whilst I expect the handicapper has probably shovelled on another couple of lbs, I can't have it that he is verging on 160. Just my view.
 
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