Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Celestial Halo wasn't mentioned once on Page 58 of this thread. Good times.
Road To The Champion Hurdle
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EC1
On a break
its like i were saying Grass..the whole thing that keeps a racing forum going is we all watch the same races but come to different conclusions
the main conclusion as you say re HF is whether he won with more in hand..well I watched his last win again..and I can honestly say that he isn't taking more lengths out of Solwhit in the last 200 yards..its like he gets a couple up and thats his superiority..he isn't imo winning comfy he's being pushed
i'll tell you honestly..if I thought HF was a big improver I'd been on him big style..i haven't got any bad feeling towards the horse..he's been superbly consistent this year..which i always like in a horse..its just he's been consistently the same..which just doesn't encourage me to think of him as a CH type of horse..one that wins lesser races because no fooker else runs there horses in them..which imo is a crying shame..teh Irish Champion should have been a superb race..where were all the big guns?
A lot of folk have criticised Hen Knight in the past..but all these trainers of these top hurdlers need the same finger pointing at them..we haven't seen enough good hurdlers running against each other imo.
EC1
On a break
shit..pity you can't go back and edit..i'd shove him in there just for you Euro
if folk hadn't been so down on the horse he would have only had one mention..that would have been me saying only two horses have beaten him competetively by double figure lengths
i think i might have got that point across be now though
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
EC1, if you're going to go to the trouble of watching the Iriah Champion again, you could at least get the winning distance right. HF won 3.5L - not "a couple" - and the reason it wasn't further is (imo) because he asserted readily jumping the last, and was only kept up to his work up a shortish run-in. The form comment reads "comfortably" and I agree with it. 
As has been alluded to already, this extended HF's superiority over Solwhit once more, and regardless of how you view Solwhit's level, it represents de-facto progression......not a plateau.
Look no further than the King George thread if you want evidence of me questioning the level reached by a horse I've long been a fan of. I'm not a blind follower of Hurricane Fly and have already acknowledged that he will need to improve again, to be winning a Champion Hurdle. But I genuinely feel we have yet to get to the bottom of the horse for the myriad reasons given throughout this interminable thread. Clearly I'm seeing something which others are not - save for the few like Granger who are also blessed with the vision of the righteous
As has been alluded to already, this extended HF's superiority over Solwhit once more, and regardless of how you view Solwhit's level, it represents de-facto progression......not a plateau.
Look no further than the King George thread if you want evidence of me questioning the level reached by a horse I've long been a fan of. I'm not a blind follower of Hurricane Fly and have already acknowledged that he will need to improve again, to be winning a Champion Hurdle. But I genuinely feel we have yet to get to the bottom of the horse for the myriad reasons given throughout this interminable thread. Clearly I'm seeing something which others are not - save for the few like Granger who are also blessed with the vision of the righteous
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I think it's harder than ever this year because there's really feck all collateral lines of form to go on. Even in rating Solwhit, people are largely reliant on a race 12 months ago....I think Solwhit is underrated on here and yet the only real line to go on is through Overturn's Galway Hurdle win and subsequent proximity in Christmas Hurdle [and it's a roundabout one, but I do believe there's some substance to it]
It's a tough one. Menorah has been off track since December. Hurricane Fly's never run in England. Dunguib is coming here on the back of a three runner race. Binocular hasn't inspired this year. Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whiskey have arguably run their better races over two and a half miles. There's so many variables but, hey, it's something to look forward to...
It's a tough one. Menorah has been off track since December. Hurricane Fly's never run in England. Dunguib is coming here on the back of a three runner race. Binocular hasn't inspired this year. Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whiskey have arguably run their better races over two and a half miles. There's so many variables but, hey, it's something to look forward to...
granger
Senior Jockey
Nicky agrees with us Grassy
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rorydelargy
At the Start
Re: Montjeu's record at the Cheltenham Festival. Widely bandies about that he's 0-44 with his progeny there, but that appears misreported. The following extract from a blog by Joe McNally (inventor of the Scoop6) is more revealing:
Festival race record of Montjeu stock
Pace Shot finished 4th of 17 to Detroit City in The Triumph, beaten under 10 lengths. He was 100/1 SP (500 on Betfair) so arguably ‘outran’ his price.
Blue Bajan was 6th of 22 to Cap Cee Bee in The Supreme, beaten under 16 lengths; his form comment: “kept on approaching last and stayed on run-in but no chance with leaders” His relevant SP and Betfair SP – 33/38
Won in The Dark was 3rd of 14 to Celestial Halo in The Triumph, beaten under 5 lengths: “stayed on to chase leading duo 2 out, kept on but no impression soon after” SPs 16/27
Mon Michel was 8th of 22 in The County; he started at just 6/1 and was beaten under 13 lengths
Shortest was Alexander Severus who was 5/2 fav when finishing 4th in the Fred Winter (never raced again): “led going well after 2 out, ridden last, headed soon after and soon no extra”
Green Mile was 5th of 22, beaten 8 lengths, in The Pertemps; SPs: 8/10.5
Gloucester‘s best performance from three runs at the Festival was 6th of 28 in The County. SPs 50/95
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
Festival race record of Montjeu stock
Pace Shot finished 4th of 17 to Detroit City in The Triumph, beaten under 10 lengths. He was 100/1 SP (500 on Betfair) so arguably ‘outran’ his price.
Blue Bajan was 6th of 22 to Cap Cee Bee in The Supreme, beaten under 16 lengths; his form comment: “kept on approaching last and stayed on run-in but no chance with leaders” His relevant SP and Betfair SP – 33/38
Won in The Dark was 3rd of 14 to Celestial Halo in The Triumph, beaten under 5 lengths: “stayed on to chase leading duo 2 out, kept on but no impression soon after” SPs 16/27
Mon Michel was 8th of 22 in The County; he started at just 6/1 and was beaten under 13 lengths
Shortest was Alexander Severus who was 5/2 fav when finishing 4th in the Fred Winter (never raced again): “led going well after 2 out, ridden last, headed soon after and soon no extra”
Green Mile was 5th of 22, beaten 8 lengths, in The Pertemps; SPs: 8/10.5
Gloucester‘s best performance from three runs at the Festival was 6th of 28 in The County. SPs 50/95
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
EC1
On a break
I could say MC will relish the uphill finish..because he's classy..but I'll give a more accurate answer..I don't know
CH's win at Fontwell didn't hurt the Kingwell form did it?..one thing is for sure..had CH lost many here would have been knocking that form..as it is..it doesn't work in reverse even though no one fancied CH to win on Sunday..bar one
MC is a big price..i'll take my chances over a few ? marks
whereas if I were backing at 5/1 or less i would need more evidence
at the end of the day..i'm guessing a bit with MC & OW..but anyone backing any of the others far shorter in the betting have doubts too
there just isn't a cast iron bet in this..even Binocular who we watched do it well last year..answered all the questions then..and still with all that evidence he has ? marks
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EC1
On a break
0/44 at Cheltenham isn't a bad record..firstly as your post points out there is teh actual chance they had of winning
secondly.. with the field sizes being so big its not surprisng that you can get to 44 without a winner
now if it were 144 i'd be more convinced
its a bit like stats for the Grand National isn't it?..lots of runners..but only a few winners in relation to the total number of runners..which can make a stat like 1/100 look superb
swedish chef
At the Start
I could say MC will relish the uphill finish..because he's classy..but I'll give a more accurate answer..I don't know
CH's win at Fontwell didn't hurt the Kingwell form did it?..one thing is for sure..had CH lost many here would have been knocking that form..as it is..it doesn't work in reverse even though no one fancied CH to win on Sunday..bar one
MC is a big price..i'll take my chances over a few ? marks
whereas if I were backing at 5/1 or less i would need more evidence
at the end of the day..i'm guessing a bit with MC & OW..but anyone backing any of the others far shorter in the betting have doubts too
there just isn't a cast iron bet in this..even Binocular who we watched do it well last year..answered all the questions then..and still with all that evidence he has ? marks
I've got to disagree here EC1 - everything tells me Binocular needs a true fast run race - and that looks likely to happen - the doubts about him are still in peoples minds because of what happened leading up to the race last year. We know that he's been trained all season with the CH as his target, so the question is do you trust Henderson to have him ready for the day.
My answer to that is yes and a repeat of last years performance imo would give him 4lb+ over the field this year - so I do make him a cast iron bet on those grounds. Should he not perform on the day or by some chance it was a slow run race then there are a bunch of horses who all look capable of running mid 160's+ and we'll have a classic race if not the classiest.
EC1
On a break
you seem very confident - can't argue with that..I think my problem with him is that the only time he impressed me was the CH win..his runs this season haven't..I know he won't have been 100% but I just get a niggling doubt about him
he obviously goes into the CH in better heart than last year when many had gone off him for good reason.
When all’s said and done you have to take a view on what you think a horse is still capable of and back it accordingly. I believe Binocular is more than capable of winning this again. There are a couple of others I’ve also got time for, but Binocular is a bit of a clear choice for me and very backable, although not as big as his odds were last time, when I was just as confident.
I cannot see Binocular winning even if he repeats last years performance. I think he will come up short in a much stronger field this year. Menorah is my idea of the winner but I am not too bullish, it's hopefully going to be the race we have been looking forward to.
How is this a "much stronger" field ? - Ratings ? Visual impression ?
EC1
On a break
I think its potentially stronger than last year because we have horses that haven't shown how really good they are yet with the weak trial races we have witnessed from most
there are some young pretenders this year rather than established workmanlikes we get in the below average years
there are some young pretenders this year rather than established workmanlikes we get in the below average years
Certainly not ratings Ardross. I have never taken notice of ratings, I base all my bets on my own opinions. Ratings and speed figures etc leave me cold. A pound here or there does not concern me. I look for class and that something special something that you see that leaves an impression on you.
It seems to me this game is all about opinions and your own personal interpretations of performances and what might happen the next time. This approach has led me to some staggeringly poor conclusions of course but occasionally I get lucky!
Do you think this years race is less competitve than last years? I am not being provocative I am just interested what you think.
It seems to me this game is all about opinions and your own personal interpretations of performances and what might happen the next time. This approach has led me to some staggeringly poor conclusions of course but occasionally I get lucky!
Do you think this years race is less competitve than last years? I am not being provocative I am just interested what you think.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I think that ratings (both conventional and time) have their value.
Sometimes a race doesn't look anything special. But when you hear that the second horse ran to 140 on his last two chase outings at the track and that the time compares favourably with the Grade 1 over C&D later in the afternoon, it pays to upgrade one's assessment.
I only really use ratings if the outcome of the eggheads' analysis suggests something unusual. You don't need ratings to tell me that Kauto Star was a good horse.
Sometimes a race doesn't look anything special. But when you hear that the second horse ran to 140 on his last two chase outings at the track and that the time compares favourably with the Grade 1 over C&D later in the afternoon, it pays to upgrade one's assessment.
I only really use ratings if the outcome of the eggheads' analysis suggests something unusual. You don't need ratings to tell me that Kauto Star was a good horse.
EC1
On a break
you won't get rich backing KS though after everyone knows he is a really good horse..nor any other top notcher..the odds are fooked once its clear how a good a horse is
the whole point of analysis that shows future potential is you get on at a decent price before everyone and their mother knows a horse is really good
without spotting potential yer buggered imho
class..an overused meaningless word imo..an ability to run faster longer is what makes horses better than others...spotting that early on is key..you won't do it when its obvious by the eye to everyone how good a horse is
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
On The Bridle
At the Start
Workforce was a huge bet for the Arc - how the f@ck did I miss him? Biggest mistake in 2010 for me that.
EC1
On a break
I backed Workforce in the Arc..he was 8/1 due to people not really rating his run in the Derby as top notch ..then not ignoring his KG run due to him not liking the fast ground two races running..both of those aspects were ignored by many people before the Arc..anyone analysng his form and reading it correctly would have backed him for the Arc..the lazy ones who can't be arsed backed summat else that looked classy
I'm not aftertiming
..i pointed both of those factors out on the Arc threadits not simplistic really..here is simplistic.."he's a classy horse"..a fookin worthless comment i read on so many forums and by so called pro's writers who should know better.
getting back to Bars point..horses like KS aren't profitable to back..when a horse runs up a sequence of form that the masses can see..it stops being value...thats fact
you picked horses out there that weren't obvious to the masses..or had doubts
for instance..Long Run..anyone backing horses that get beat off 158 in handicaps when they run in G1 races will get poor very quickly..7/1 is a shit price for horses with that profile imo.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
No, he was that price because the bookmakers over factored his King George run into his price. Just like they over factored Captain Cee Bees last fence fall into Sizing Europe's price. Why was New Approach available at 7/1 for his Derby on the day of the race - despite having easily the best form of any of the runners? Like I said examples are numerous.
On The Bridle
At the Start
EC1 takes on all-comers in 60 page Champion Hurdle Thread Showdown!! Who's next ?? Roll Up Roll Up ........ If OW or MC wins the CH the forum members should commision a wall-paper version of this thread and present it to EC so he can wallpaper the living room and regale his guests with how he told us so! If however neither of the above do maybe we could do something similar with a toilet roll version!!!
I love it EC, I love it!!
I love it EC, I love it!!