Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

...Just taken 6/1 on him with Paddy Power (wasn't brave enough to back him earlier). Those who fancy him are likely to see this trimmed shortly.

As I have to oppose the favourite at the price, I've got it down to three. I've already backed Native Khan (who I think has got about the same chance as Carlton House) and I'm waiting on O'Brien for the other one (...which probably means backing that one on the day).
 
Last edited:
Bar the Bull said:
I think Carlton is going to be very short. Pour Moi may shorten, but not by much in my opinion, given the hype behind the favourite.
Click to expand...

Carlton is already much too short. I can't believe myself that he could shorten further. I can't be interested at these sort of prices, in a wide open erace.

Pour Moi is almost certain to shorten from 6/1, as will the Ballydoyle selected inner sanctum (whenever that'll be).
 
Last edited:
I think CH will start as an odds-on chance. The other horse that could shorten is the grey horse Frankie rides.
The fact that they are bringing Pour Moi from France leads me to believe that they don´t have much faith in Seville turning tables with CH. Seville was heavily backed for the Dante and in my opinion was fitter than the winner that day.
 
Last edited:
It's possible he was, but the way the race was run and the trip were wholly against him. Given the king of trainers ringing endorsement Pour Moi has to be added to the portfolio as well.

The way it's going Carlton House may well be the worst price favourite for the race since Tenby.
 
We opposed both Tenby and Visindar as lacking stamina.

Carlton House is much better suited to 12 furlongs than that pair. However, his current price is no price for a colt that shares an equal chance with at least a small handful of them.
 
SteveM said:
...Just taken 6/1 on him with Paddy Power (wasn't brave enough to back him earlier). Those who fancy him are likely to see this trimmed shortly.

As I have to oppose the favourite at the price, I've got it down to three. I've already backed Native Khan (who I think has got about the same chance as Carlton House) and I'm waiting on O'Brien for the other one (...which probably means backing that one on the day).
Click to expand...

How can a sound judge like yourself put forward the Aiden O'Brien first string as one of your selections? Surely your dosage and race reading ability can lead you down the path of which one it will be before the market makes it a 9/2 shot? Anyway he hasn't won the Derby since 2001 so why woukd his selection be any better value than Carlton House?
 
Last edited:
Of the others I like Native Khan (Still too big a price considering he probably has the best form in the book) and also the Godolphin horse Ocean War. The latter is a proper middle distance horse with a raking long stride and I've been impressed with him I have to say. I think he is worth a small e/w interest.

If Native Khan stays the trip though I actually think he is the most likely winner.

With Carlton house being by street cry i'm just not convinced he'll get the trip. Can't access the RP at work but I can't imagine street cry has had many decent 12f winners... I could be wrong though. He may be working the house down but to me that shows he has pace, which we know already. The key question is will he stay and I have to say i'm not convinced - Not at 13/8 anyway.
 
Gearoid said:
How can a sound judge like yourself put forward the Aiden O'Brien first string as one of your selections? Surely your dosage and race reading ability can lead you down the path of which one it will be before the market makes it a 9/2 shot? Anyway he hasn't won the Derby since 2001 so why woukd his selection be any better value than Carlton House?
Click to expand...

You misunderstand. I'm not all that interested in the first string as such, I just want to know if the one I think is best will be running. I quite fancy Roderic O'Conner (slight preference to Seville) over the others but am uncertain about his participation.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
You misunderstand. I'm not all that interested in the first string as such, I just want to know if the one I think is best will be running. I quite fancy Roderic O'Conner (slight preference to Seville) over the others but am uncertain about his participation.
Click to expand...

That's completely different. I presume you are on about Roderic O'Connor?
 
I remember an interview with Magnier prior to one of the recent Derby's when Coolmore were mob-handed. He made a point that they felt a responsibility to the breeders who had used their sires to give them the chance to run in such races, rather than simply restrict participation to the chosen one or 2.
 
Nothing wrong with having the first five home :lol:
They've nearly done that in the past, and it helps to sell on the placed horses later in the year.
 
The race is really cutting up now. Take the Coolmore runners out, and there might be only five or six runners.
 
Gearoid said:
That's completely different. I presume you are on about Roderic O'Connor?
Click to expand...

If you can tell me he's definite to run I will be. I'm a bit busy this afternoon so may have missed something.

I'm on my two other fancies already.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top