According to Anne-Marie O'Brien on Twitter, yes… although she was the one who said that Roderic O’Connor would be taken out at the latest acceptance stage, but he’s still there.
Road to the Epsom Derby 2011
- Thread starter Aragorn
- Start date
According to Anne-Marie O'Brien on Twitter, yes… although she was the one who said that Roderic O’Connor would be taken out at the latest acceptance stage, but he’s still there.
Pour Moi is a shocking price.
I would have big doubts about Native Khan staying.
You would need to be on drugs to back a horse like Recital at Epsom.
Carlton House should win.
Ocean War at 20s is the each way bet, lovely horse.
I would have big doubts about Native Khan staying.
You would need to be on drugs to back a horse like Recital at Epsom.
Carlton House should win.
Ocean War at 20s is the each way bet, lovely horse.
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On The Bridle
At the Start
Point 1 Agree
Point2 Agree
Point 3 Have given up the recreational drugs in my twenties but have backed Recital earlier this year, again at 12/1 more recently - think he still is an ew bet at 7/1. Albeit I didnt like his waywardness the last day.
Point 4 Visually very impressive in the Dante - but the time and more importantly the sectionals say he is too slow to win a derby.
Point 5 Possibly.
He might be now.
Carlton House is much more shocking price though. Seville must have about the same chance as CH at 12 furlongs.
Native Khan should be at least as good at 10 furlongs, not sure yet about 12... but probably worth a chance.
Recital is a bit of a mad one.
Ocean War could be okay. Not certain to get the trip though. probably Godolphin's sole representative.
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That is a big big misconception Steve. People think fast horses have less chance of beating slower horses over further (Fame and Glory, Sea the Stars 
). I made the point here before the Dante Carlton House will have little worry with 12 furlongs - in fact, he has the right amount of speed and stamina. Seville looks like he will need 12 furlongs plus, or could win something like an Aiden O'Brien benefit (the Irish Derby!).
Carlton House was as inconvenienced as everything else in the Dante, pulled like mad, got caught in a pocket (Seville had much more the run of the race) yet still showed enough class to win easily.
). I made the point here before the Dante Carlton House will have little worry with 12 furlongs - in fact, he has the right amount of speed and stamina. Seville looks like he will need 12 furlongs plus, or could win something like an Aiden O'Brien benefit (the Irish Derby!). Carlton House was as inconvenienced as everything else in the Dante, pulled like mad, got caught in a pocket (Seville had much more the run of the race) yet still showed enough class to win easily.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Pour Moi is a shocking price. Agree
I would have big doubts about Native Khan staying. Or being good enough
You would need to be on drugs to back a horse like Recital at Epsom. Guilty as charged; I think he has a right chance.
Carlton House should win. The only thing putting me off laying him is the fact that the Stoute camp think he's so good. On form, he's nothing special.
Ocean War at 20s is the each way bet, lovely horse. Maybe.
I would have big doubts about Native Khan staying. Or being good enough
You would need to be on drugs to back a horse like Recital at Epsom. Guilty as charged; I think he has a right chance.
Carlton House should win. The only thing putting me off laying him is the fact that the Stoute camp think he's so good. On form, he's nothing special.
Ocean War at 20s is the each way bet, lovely horse. Maybe.
If 10 furlongs is too short for a horse in May of his 3yo career, he is too slow to win a Derby.
The doubt about Native Khan is fully getting the 12 furlongs. That aside he's probably as good as anything that is lining up.
Interested to see that Roderic O'Connor is still there. He's my preferred Ballydoyle choice, although he's probably making the trip to Chantilly.
Interested to see that Roderic O'Connor is still there. He's my preferred Ballydoyle choice, although he's probably making the trip to Chantilly.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
To me he looks talented, green and the archetypal horse who succeeds with experience, and at the highest level.
That could well be right. I don't think he will be quite good enough to win the Derby (perhaps placed). What I said is that he has a similar chance to CH. I don't really see why CH should such a short price. I can see him being placed (perhaps he'll win). He does have the right blend in terms of stamina aptitude. I just think he may not be all that good.
I watched the Guineas again. Native Khan certainly did not come from the back, but seemed to be able to go the pace (obviously not Frankel's pace) better than anything else, and certainly looked a horse who doesn't need a step up. It's hard to imagine a horse travelling that well over a mile yet staying the Derby trip.
This is the thing with Recital. I also believe he has a vein of quite deep ability (more for instance than CH). I just couldn't back him at Epsom.
He reminds me a bit of that good horse Theatrical (who was well named). Talented, but all over the shop.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
I'd be concerned about Recital's temperment and his ability to handle the track. A horse that hangs on a flat track like Leopardstown will find the camber at Epsom very difficult to handle.
I disagree. While I'm not certain he'll get 12 furlongs, 10 furlongs would be very good for him. The French Derby had been earmarked for him earlier this season. I'm a bit surprised that he's not going for that, but connections probably want to take advantage of a quite weak Derby (certainly weak in depth).
I can't believe the opposition to Carlton House! He looks something really special to me, will stay, is all class, great attitude, trained by the who you would want for the Derby - all positives. There is not one horse I fancy to beat him.
Yes this is exactly what I mean. I expect them to find good races for Recital, I just don't believe that Epsom will be one of them.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
I see Seamie Heffernan doesn't get any of the Ballydoyle Derby rides. Joseph O'Brien and Colm O'Donoghue are on the stable's two outsiders.
Seamie does ride Misty for Me in the Oaks though.
Seamie does ride Misty for Me in the Oaks though.
Carlton House has everything right for this race, so don't be put off if you think he's good enough and fancy him.
To me though he looks like a Group 2 horse that by virtue of winning the Dante has been made favourite for the Derby. He'll have to settle much better than he did in the Dante if he wants to do well in this.
Sheikh
At the Start
Recital will have had to have done an awful lot of growing up in a short period of time. Surprised If NK gets the trip, especially with so much apparent stamina in it. His damside would suggest he won't.Pour moi looks the one to beat for me with CH thereabouts.
I 've backed Treasure Beach e/w . The most strightforward of O'Briens, he'll handle the track and get the trip and looked unperturbed when winning at Chester. Off now to see the head Doctor.
I 've backed Treasure Beach e/w . The most strightforward of O'Briens, he'll handle the track and get the trip and looked unperturbed when winning at Chester. Off now to see the head Doctor.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
I'd agree pretty well that.
G
Gearoid
Guest
It's hard to make anything out of their jockey bookings. They are certainly being aggressive with securing the best available. They poached Kieran Fallon and tied up Soumillon very early.