Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

SteveM said:
...Just taken 6/1 on him with Paddy Power (wasn't brave enough to back him earlier). Those who fancy him are likely to see this trimmed shortly.

As I have to oppose the favourite at the price, I've got it down to three. I've already backed Native Khan (who I think has got about the same chance as Carlton House) and I'm waiting on O'Brien for the other one (...which probably means backing that one on the day).
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In fairness, Steve seems to be right about PM's price. Now a best priced 9/2.

The two Ballydolye horses are walking in the market, with Native Khan now disputing third favouritism on Betfair with Recital.

Best prices:

CP 6/4
PM 9/2
Recital 7/1
Seville 19/2
NK 10/1
ROC 16/1 (but nearly twice that on Betfair)
OW 20/1
 
The observations about the finishing time of the Dante are very valid here..from Nick Mordin site

When I analysed the form before the Dante I found it hard not to conclude that it was a weak renewal of what should be the premier Derby Trial. None of the runners had earned a decent Group class speed rating from me. Two of the six runners were coming into the race off maiden wins. Another two had shown rather ordinary form in minor handicaps.
Sure enough the time of the race was desperately slow. The winner clocked a time 3.4 seconds slower than the fillies went in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes over the same trip in the previous race.
The most remarkable thing about the Dante was that the early pace was slow but the colts failed to make up the lost time in the sprint for home. They reached the five furlong from home mark 3.2 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes yet still came home from there a fifth of a second slower.
It was only in the last three furlongs that they went a little quicker in the Dante than the Middleton Stakes, and then only by 0.9 of a second - despite the fact the runners were flat to the boards all the way through the final three furlongs.
For comparison there have been three recent renewals of the Dante which were run in slower time than the Middleton Stakes.
In 2008 the colts reached the five furlong from home mark in the Dante 2.6 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes. They then ran the last five furlongs 1.3 seconds faster and the last three furlongs 1.3 seconds faster as well.
Last year they reached the five furlong from home mark in the Dante 1.9 seconds later than they did in the Middleton Stakes. They got home from the five furlong mark 1.4 seconds quicker and from the three furlong mark 1.2 seconds quicker.
What these sectional times tell me is that CARLTON HOUSE (34) doesn't merit a pattern class speed rating from me for his Dante win, not even when I adjust his rating to take account of the sprint finish. He won a weak race in slow time, making up remarkably little ground on the fillies' time in the final three furlongs considering how slow he'd gone earlier.
The presence of one of the handicappers in a close up third placing endorses the idea that this year's Dante was the worst in years.
How on earth Carlton House was promoted to favouritism for the Derby on the basis of this performance at odds as short as 6-4 is beyond me. Nine of the 53 Dante winners to date have gone on to win the Derby, So statistically even an average Dante winner should be 5-1 for the Derby. But I rate Carlton House significantly slower than the average Dante winner.
Another thing that concerns me about Carlton House is that his front end seems slightly lower than his back end when running, giving him a rather unbalanced look. This being so I have my doubts about him handling the severe gradients and tight turns at Epsom. His two wins to date have come on dead flat galloping courses.
Carlton House did pick up quite well in the sprint finish to get by SEVILLE (33). But my feeling is that Seville will turn out to be the better of the pair.
Seviille is a strong, powerful mile and a half sort who would surely not have been well suited to the sprint finish. In addition he did look to run rather green. Off a stronger early pace and with more experience I'd bet on him turning this form around.
Seville's trainer Aidan O'Brien said a few days after the Dante that he would be running something in the Prix du Jockey Club as well as the Derby. Thirteen of his Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial runners have gone on to contest the Derby and only one the French race. Three of his Dante runners have run in the Prix du Jockey Club as against four in the Derby. With Recital looking a stronger Epsom candidate and the French race looking weaker than normal it looks a good bet that Seville will be heading to France.
The early pace is almost always strong in the Prix du Jockey Club. Seville will be fitter for that race and more experienced. It's just possible he'll improve enough to win what may well be a weak renewal.

Carlton House looks very short for a horse that couldn't run that fast when lots of petrol left
 
I've only just seen his Epsom workout. If visual impression can be believed PM will take a world of beating.
 
Roderic O'Connor goes to France and the rest to Epsom, according to the trainer's wife.

They hope to finalise jockey bookings tomorrow so it's decision time for Fallon and it can't be an easy choice.
 
Should be easy enough Gus. Recital has slightly stronger form but the main thing to swing it is who is better to keep happy? Dunlop will have a potential Classic winner for Fallon again aroun 2015 but getting nice rides from O'Brien would do wonders for adding to his Group 1 tally.
 
Bar the Bull said:
If you think you might have 5 Derby horses at home, you probably have none.
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I think that's one of the most overused cliche's in Racing. Fame and Glory might not have won our Derby, but he was good enough to win a lot of renewals, probably would be good enough to win this one and he was part of a large enough team from Ballydoyle.
 
I suppose opinions are what this is all about but how on earth can you call the value of this years derby euro? Especially since we have a favourite who looks like he could be pretty classy? And fabre is more than keen on his charge?

Its an old debate but F&G might have won a few derbys, but not lots surely? He's a there or thereabouts horse but thats it
 
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Nine of the 53 Dante winners to date have gone on to win the Derby, So statistically even an average Dante winner should be 5-1 for the Derby
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Im have no massive opinion on Nick Maudlin either way, but its statements like this that make me question the rest of his stuff. Its a completely silly statement. Surely it doesnt need pointing out that the Danbte has in recent times (for whatever reasons) the trial the top trainers increasingly target? Whereas other trials have simply fallen away. Sandown and lingfield being two examples.
 
Fair enough. It used to be a worthwhile point but times have changed with the Ballydoyle recent firepower perhaps
 
clivex said:
Im have no massive opinion on Nick Maudlin either way, but its statements like this that make me question the rest of his stuff. Its a completely silly statement. Surely it doesnt need pointing out that the Danbte has in recent times (for whatever reasons) the trial the top trainers increasingly target? Whereas other trials have simply fallen away. Sandown and lingfield being two examples.
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thats the bit you ignore Clive

like i said other week..you sort out the nonsense..ignore it

his timings for the last 3 furlongs show that the Derby fav is a false one..probably the best lay this year if thats the best the animal can do

i think its a pretty poor field tbh..something will win by about 7 lengths ..probably the 2nd fav
 
Sure EC. and like anything you pick and choose what is relevant, but dont the vibes from stoutes stable concern you as a layer? They dont usually spout off if its a dud (i suspect we will get examples now...)
 
Hamm said:
Should be easy enough Gus. Recital has slightly stronger form but the main thing to swing it is who is better to keep happy? Dunlop will have a potential Classic winner for Fallon again aroun 2015 but getting nice rides from O'Brien would do wonders for adding to his Group 1 tally.
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Good call. Fallon will not ride Native Khan, so presumably on Recital
 
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