Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

Euronymous said:
He looks a likelier type than Recital but visions of Visindar and all that.

I'm happy with Seville at the prices.
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Both Pour Moi and Seville seem to me to hold quite solid chances. My heart's not really in this race now though. The Derby could go to a good Group 2 horse in the absence of Frankel.
 
On The Bridle said:
wonder what Aidan is talking about in relation to this big announcement - looks pretty straighforward to me - runs the two pacemakers as per Derrinstown (Memphis Tennessee could be this years Golden Sword) and Seville with Recital their main protagonist.
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Coolmore owning Pour Moi has muddied the waters somewhat. It makes sense to have one of them go for the Jockey Club.
 
Euronymous said:
Coolmore owning Pour Moi has muddied the waters somewhat. It makes sense to have one of them go for the Jockey Club.
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This is the reason I'm holding off. Pour Moi is already over there but wants a trip. Recital on the other hand would probably be the best suited of the three to 10 furlongs. (The other two, as mentioned , could be Leger types.)
 
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A 10+ furlong horse is more likely to win the Derby than a 12+ horse. I don't think they will take any risks with winning the Derby, that is their main priority. It's likely that they are waiting to see how ROC runs on Saturday with a view to him being their Prix du Jockey Club horse. Or they are possibly running something in the Gallinule on Sunday (a la Jan Vermeer last year), perhaps Markmanship.
 
Sequoyah said:
A 10+ furlong horse is more likely to win the Derby than a 12+ horse. I don't think they will take any risks with winning the Derby, that is their main priority. It's likely that they are waiting to see how ROC runs on Saturday with a view to him being their Prix du Jockey Club horse. Or they are possibly running something in the Gallinule on Sunday (a la Jan Vermeer last year), perhaps Markmanship.
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It depends what their distance range is. While two of them may ultimately get further they may have a best trip of just above or just below 12 furlongs, while Recital will almost certainly be better than the other two at about 10-11 furlongs say.

This is not to say that Recital shouldn't run in the Derby, simply that he would be better suited to the French race than the other two (of this sample of three).
 
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Sequoyal wrote: Or they are possibly running something in the Gallinule on Sunday (a la Jan Vermeer last year), perhaps Markmanship.

Entries for the Gallinule should be out tomorrow - fascinating to see if Marksmanship is there. But even if he runs and wins, he might be too inexperienced for the Derby. Would they consider French Derby for him and Epsom for Pour Moi? What is the date of the Jockey Club this year? Pretty sure we won't hear Ballydoyle's plans until after Sunday, depending on Roddy's and possibly Marksmanship's runs.

I don't think Seville has enough pace for either Derby, but I like Recital a lot. In any case, I think it will take a good one to beat Carlton House, a worthy favourite.
 
Nefertiti said:
I don't think Seville has enough pace for either Derby, but I like Recital a lot.
I sort of want to be convinced about Recital. He has got something about him which may be talent. But aren't you worried by the way he goes in fits and starts and hangs into the rail. He could easily boil over in the preliminaries and looks a most unsuitable type for Epsom to me. Stamina I've no problem with, but on balance isn't the French Derby the one he should go for?
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its easy to get carried away with looking for stamina too hard..you end up with a st leger type who just plods on in the Derby

yes a horse needs to stay..but not be a plodder either

the magic mix of speed + stamina..most years a lot is made of stamina..but it does point you at a fair few who are actually too slow for the Derby itself..imo
 
EC1 said:
its easy to get carried away with looking for stamina too hard..you end up with a st leger type who just plods on in the Derby

yes a horse needs to stay..but not be a plodder either

the magic mix of speed + stamina..most years a lot is made of stamina..but it does point you at a fair few who are actually too slow for the Derby itself..imo
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You're right. The Derby is all about the blend between speed/stamina... which is why we should be seeing Frankel turn out.;)
 
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Latest forfeit stage for the Derby (tomorrow isn't it). I hope they 'forget' to opt take Frankel out, as Bolger apparently forgot with New Approach.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Any chance the Greenham pacemaker is a decent horse for Cecil / Abdullah?

Runs today in the Cocked Hat stakes (Predominate to old people).
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Could be Bar but looked very small to my eye when upsides Nathaniel at Doncaster last year and didn't look the most likely type to train on IMO.
 
Carlton House is as short as 11/8 with some bookies. I'd certainly be happy to lay him at that price if I could but he's a more realistic 2.68 to lay on Betfair at present.
 
...reportedly impressive final serious workout ahead of the big day. Too short for me though, for a colt that must have a similar sort of chance to Seville.
 
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Andre Fabre: “Pour Moi is the best chance I've ever had here. He's a good horse”… this is probably all we need to know.
 
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I hope he's right Steve.... My antepost bet on him will pay for next years holiday a few times over - I'm just annoyed i didn't top up when he drifted after being beaten FTO.
 
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