Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

The more I look at the opposition the more it seems to me that Pour Moi will struggle to lose this.
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Join the club. Why do other people think Pour Moi is such poor value? A Gr2 winner over ten furlongs in a decent time, trained by one of the masters, bred to get the trip, why shouldn't he be similar odds to Carlton House and Recital?
 
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Grey said:
Join the club. Why do other people think Pour Moi is such poor value? A Gr2 winner over ten furlongs in a decent time, trained by one of the masters, bred to get the trip, why shouldn't he be similar odds to Carlton House and Recital?
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Carlton 13/8
Pour Moi 9/2
Recital 13/2

Best prices available at 12:45.
 
I'm of the opinion that the Derristown was the best trial and having watched it half a dozen times I think Memphis Tennessee looks like he will appreciate the extra two furlongs of the Derby trip more than Recital will. He looked better balanced than Recital and was doing his best work at the end of the race. I think he's the only value left in the race and I like the fact Joseph is riding him.

The above opinion is from someone who backed World Domination ante-post although I did lay that off before the Dante and also have Nathaniel ante-post at about a third of the price he is now. :)
 
swedish chef said:
I'm of the opinion that the Derristown was the best trial and having watched it half a dozen times I think Memphis Tennessee looks like he will appreciate the extra two furlongs of the Derby trip more than Recital will. He looked better balanced than Recital and was doing his best work at the end of the race. I think he's the only value left in the race and I like the fact Joseph is riding him.

The above opinion is from someone who backed World Domination ante-post although I did lay that off before the Dante and also have Nathaniel ante-post at about a third of the price he is now. :)
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You forgot to mention your current hot streak though.....:ninja:
 
Carlton 13/8
Pour Moi 9/2
Recital 13/2
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Conclusion: Carlton House is way too short, Pour Moi is maybe a little bit short at the moment but as a foreign horse is likely to drift on the day.
 
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Carlton House has suffered a "minor setback", but is still expected to make the line up.

Watch the odds tumble on Pour Moi now.
 
I don't like the sound of that. I've taken a precautionary bet on Pour Moi and had a bet each way on Ocean's War.
 
I fancy Vadamar at the prices. His last run before Pour Moi was stated to be a prep and he is going to thrive for the extra distance and likely strong pace on Saturday. They would not be sending him over unless they thought they had a really good chance and at the prices he is my idea of a bet especially when you consider he went off odds on against Pour Moi last time.
 
I don't like the use of the word "hopeful"

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/05/31/RACING_Derby_Lead.html&BID=464

Carlton House has suffered a minor setback in his preparation for Saturday's Investec Derby at Epsom - but is still expected to line up in the race.

The Queen's colt has been the hot favourite for the world's most famous Flat race ever since he turned in an impressive display in the Dante Stakes at York on May 12.

In a statement, Her Majesty's racing manager, John Warren, said on Tuesday: "Following a routine canter yesterday, Carlton House was found to have a small amount of filling in his near-fore joint at evening stables last night.

"As a result precautionary X-rays were taken this morning which revealed no abnormalities and we remain hopeful that he is on target for the Investec Derby on Saturday."
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Kauto said:
I fancy Vadamar at the prices. His last run before Pour Moi was stated to be a prep and he is going to thrive for the extra distance and likely strong pace on Saturday. They would not be sending him over unless they thought they had a really good chance and at the prices he is my idea of a bet especially when you consider he went off odds on against Pour Moi last time.
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Lovely mix of speed and stamina in the pedigree.Excellent potential at stud.
 
Circumspect said:
I don't like the use of the word "hopeful"
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...well they couldn't really say they were confident. Probably something and nothing. As things stand I wouldn't read too much into it. Fingers crossed he takes part. He's still well worth taking on imo though.
 
lets make this easy - its a shit race with maybe half a dozen possibles..the one shining cast iron guarantee is that CH won't win..get as much layed as you can on it...and forget the other slowcoaches

why does it matter if Recital might win or xyz might win?..they are all so much of a muchness its heartbreaking that Frankel won't be winning one of the easiest Derby's of modern times

Cecil is a legend..but he's dropped a right bollock not going for this.

laying CH is the easiest money on offer this year..gift + horse
 
Bold statement EC - If he stays he will go mighty close.

I don't think he will but I wouldn't say it's a definite. I wouldn't be laying him i have to say.
 
Aragorn said:
Bold statement EC - If he stays he will go mighty close.

I don't think he will but I wouldn't say it's a definite. I wouldn't be laying him i have to say.
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he was so unimpressive in the Dante imo...there must be 6 horses mentioned on this thread as being potential winners..and yet its mainly guesswork..if this ..if that..why guess?..just get yer money

it really is a very average renewal..in fact below average

its even crossed my mind its getting like the Leger...all the real good horses are shorter distanced aimed..its like winning the Derby is a bit embarrasing..oooh we'lll have to get a win at 10f..immediately after ..to prove the horses has got speed etc.

I'll bet the Derby winner goes for a 10f race the next time it runs
 
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To say Carlton House 'cast iron guarantee' won't win is a stupid statement. He clearly can win, as can others, and then comes down to whether his price reflects his chances. Anything else, especially when you are punishing the horse for the way his prep race was run and him not getting a clear run, is the mentality of a betting shop mug punter, and encourages little further debate with you.
 
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