Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

It was Treasure Beach's second run over the trip. As with At First Sight last year, I'm going to assume that he and Memphis have been flattered by a couple of good front-running rides.
 
SteveM said:
Pour Moi was really different class to these. Like Dancing Brave he came from the back and most of us thought too late. It was amazing how he sliced though the field. Carlton House was closing toward the lead,but Pour Moi came from five lengths behind him and passed him like he was standing still.

The winner is much better than the winning distance suggests.
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Agreed, the winner could prove to be exceptional.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Indeed, brilliant stuff Aragorn. I had a few quid on 10 mins before post at presumably a tiny tiny fraction of your price and I'm pretty giddy after that - God knows how you feel!
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Watched it on the BBC and I really wasn't sure he'd won despite Barzalona standing up!!! He has won me a lot of money this year but i'm not sure I could have forgiven him if he hadn't got up!!

Cheers chaps. Everyone once in a while one of them comes off!!
 
You and me both...
;)

[FONT=&quot]Pour Moi’s class and stamina to ruin Queen’s day[/FONT]
 
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Pour Moi's turn of foot is rather impressive - delighted to see him win and will be keeping an eye on his three parts sister, "Kissed"!

Pour Moi pulled like a steam train in the early stages of the race yesterday - given his head a little he might have run better. If he settles he'll be a nice contender this season.
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- Just to prove to myself I did actually pull him early in the season!!
 
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Hamm said:
Four lengths covered them at the end but look at where and how Carlton house and Pour Moi came from. Top, top class, the both of them.

Treasure Beach is not exposed. He couldn't be more unexposed. Again, read Sheikh's posts. This was his first attempt at a trip he was bred for, and just because the market didn't see it that doesn't mean he is a weak link.
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Carlton House was in a much better position to win the race than Pour Moi. He had a 4-5 length lead on the winner at the 2 furlong pole and was still rolled by at the finish line. Based on what I saw there the winner could be exceptional but imo the rest wont stand a chance against this horse in the future, wherever they meet again.
 
I don't disagree with that at all - my point is they both came from miles back so both, although Pour Moi a lot more, deserve to be marked up significantly.
 
The winner is a very good horse and should beat all these again if they meet. Carlton house was not good enough to pass TB and the Guineas 3rd was only 2.5 lenghts away. A solid Derby the summer willl give us the full picture.
 
Aragorn said:
Watched it on the BBC and I really wasn't sure he'd won despite Barzalona standing up!!! He has won me a lot of money this year but i'm not sure I could have forgiven him if he hadn't got up!!

Cheers chaps. Everyone once in a while one of them comes off!!
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Enjoy a tipple ,It's Red-letter day !
 
I feel that CH was the more inconvienienced. At a critical moment he was forced wide and out of his rhythm around a corner. PM (who has more speed & instant accerleration) although behind is used to running in this manner. CH was then asked to make up a huge amount of ground (not blaming jockey here) and use huge energy as leader had flown. I don't think thats his style and by the line, he just couldn't give any more. Now if Moore had been able to have him in a slightly more prominant position which he wasn't able to as he broke so slowly, then he would have kicked earlier and may have got away.
I'm not in any way trying to detract from the winner who was most impressive but who possibly had things easier as he is used to being ridden that way. I'm not saying CH will beat them in a rematch but I'd like to see them both in the Irish Derby.
What I would like to see is the removal of a 52 rated horse and a 79(?) rated horse from being allowed to run - they empted so quickly and caused problems.
 
Treasure Beach is not exposed. He couldn't be more unexposed. Again, read Sheikh's posts. This was his first attempt at a trip he was bred for, and just because the market didn't see it that doesn't mean he is a weak link.
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Dont agree. He was tackling a mile at 2 and that will always be good indicator of middle distance at 3. Not straight line i know, but either way if he was seriously decent then i believe the market (ie Ballydoyle) would have had a say.

I am interested in EC's analysis now....

I seem to recall Sir Percy "coming from way back" and "slicing through the field" and not quite being described in the same terms as these two wonderhorses we witnessed today
 
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It seems to me that the winner is very good and a bracket above the others here. The next five are decent Group class contenders.

So overall a Derby that has thown up a very good winner and a handful of decent others. We should be pleased enough with that.
 
I would be interested to know what Moore was saying as he was walking in, he was clearly very upset at someone, and I'm guessing Dettori. No doubt it won't be quoted in the papers/websites.
Did the winner mistake the line or was showing off?
 
I'd very much like to know what Ryan Moore was so animated about. I've never seen it from him before.
 
There is already a minimum rating for the big races at Cheltenham, it should be the same for all the big flat races too.
 
He was taken a bit wide at the start of the straight that's all. Plenty of Derby winners have had far more troubled passages than that.
 
I looked.No carnage, if Moore feels he has to blame someone blame Frankie I don't know why he took the wide route that he took which forced CH wider than he wanted to go but Moore had let the race happen rather than making it happen.
 
Would he have been in a better position to avoid trouble if he hadn't started badly? But, did he do so because he'd been put in the stalls early in case he refused to go in? The winner had a bad start in that he was a hold up horse that broke too well. Good horses make their own luck, I think. Bit disappointed, though; would have liked a fairytale ending. [were there more stalls handlers than usual?]
 
Looking at the winners sectional times today give a very fair idea what his rating is.

After removing the ground speed its easy to compare other years winners..so the overall times will differ now from the official time due the going correction...its particularly intersting when other winners used similar energy in the first half of the race

I've split the race in two..timed from the start ..to the path at the beginning of the straight..and from there to the finish.

Here are two previous winners times who ran very close to the same time as PM for the first 8.5f

Sir Percy 116.6 seconds
New Approach 116.7
Pour Moi 116.9

The going corrected finishing times should be similar..if all 3 horses were of similar ability.

these are the going corrected finishing times

Sir Percy 156.28
New Approach 156.02
Pour Moi 155.50

Pour Moi's last 3.5f finishing time was impressive today..he ran it faster than STS and also ran the first 8.5f faster than STS

Using New Approach as being about a 125 horse when he won the Derby..you would have to rate PM 2.5 lengths better than NA achieved looking at those split times.

Not many horses can achieve what he achieved today
 
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