Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

The French Derby goes off soon and I backed one of the Aga Khan horses on the pari-mutuel with Hills - I can't find the pm prices? I also presume both his runners will be coupled? which is why I did it as I think both have a good shout.
 
O'Donoghue was the only jockey to ride a traditional race and nearly nicked it .

Fabre was clear that they only held him up that far back as it was a small field - Dancing Brave would have picked up Shahrastani pretty easily in a field of 13 I reckon.

I think one of the reasons Moore is so annoyed is that he knows he should have got closer earlier and he made his own trouble coming round Tattenham Corner to an extent . Unfortunately due to the stupid BBC camera work over concentrating on CH round the bend it was difficult to see whether he did indeed take lengths out of Pour Moi at that stage . Will watch RUK form to see.
 
swedish chef said:
The French Derby goes off soon and I backed one of the Aga Khan horses on the pari-mutuel with Hills - I can't find the pm prices? I also presume both his runners will be coupled? which is why I did it as I think both have a good shout.
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Not sure if you backed Baraan, I did, what the feck was Lemaire doing?!!!?!!

The winner looks very good as well though. He showed a real turn of foot to win.
 
Something of a franking of the form there - Bubble Chic runner-up to Pour Moi LTO finishes second to the unbeaten Reliable Man.

Baraan unlucky in that he missed the break but the French 3yo colts look a solid bunch and very impressed with the way Reliable Man quickened up.
 
How did Ryan 'make his own trouble' coming round Tatts, Ardross? He had no trouble any more than did POUR MOI, who was as wide, as I've already said, and many lengths further back. The 'trouble' with CARLTON HOUSE would be more his stuttered prep for this race - you cannot have leg troubles on and off so close to it and maintain 100% best effort in preparations. This is not so much to excuse the horse not winning, but to cut him a bit of slack. There is no jockey error or trainer error or owner error - they all decided to go for it in a sporting way, got a nice 3rd place, and might've been closer if the horse had had a perfect, smooth run up to yesterday. But he didn't.
 
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:lol: I didn't see any real problem to any horse getting a look-in if good enough. But nothing was, was it? RELIABLE MAN really looks the real deal - even if we are wandering around on the Epsom Derby thread! He looked immensely strong in that finish and I loved the way he flattened down to it.
 
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Baraan did miss the break badly but Angarse and Claude the Clown are way over the top .

It is very difficult to see what happened from the camera angles but as Bubble Chic goes slightly right Baraan looks badly put off . The idea that any of this is Lemaire's fault is a joke .

ROC was disappointing - perhaps he did not get the trip . Casamento looks to have fallen to the curse of Godolphin but an excellent effort from Colombian.

K as for CH and PM - Pour Moi was so far back and deliberately ridden like that so he avoided the scrimmaging . CH missed the break but was soon closer and then Moore like Dettori on Blue Bunting on Friday took a pull . Dettori's manoeuvre was a disaster as they then crawled but Moore could have been closer and therefore not compelled to circumvent the melee at Tattenham Corner.
 
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Well, we'll just have to leave it that we won't agree on the manoeuvres round Tatts, old dear. If Moore had gone closer and still got no better than the 3rd place rosette, he'd have been criticised for having gone up too soon. I feel he's done nothing wrong, since to have been on the inside (if he could've got to the rail) would've seen him checked for too long - to have gone closer... for a horse which some people now wonder didn't quite get the trip? Don't see the wisdom of that, if it is correct, as he then might well have blown up earlier. I can't honestly see what other way he could've ridden the horse to have obtained any better position than he did. There weren't too many options, other than to have blasted him out and gone to the front, which would definitely have seen him end up gasping for air, I feel.

I do feel we're not thinking enough about his preparatus interruptus - perhaps the yard would've rested him longer if he'd been a regular handicapper, but with the weight of popular expectation (and perhaps far more hype from the racing Press than was warranted) of a royal win on top of the wedding - we don't know. Perhaps Madge said to Stoute, look, if he's sound, just send him out there. What will be will be. I'm sure Ryan isn't going to have his head on a pike outside the Tower for the ride.
 
krizon said:
Well, we'll just have to leave it that we won't agree on the manoeuvres round Tatts, old dear. If Moore had gone closer and still got no better than the 3rd place rosette, he'd have been criticised for having gone up too soon. I feel he's done nothing wrong, since to have been on the inside (if he could've got to the rail) would've seen him checked for too long - to have gone closer... for a horse which some people now wonder didn't quite get the trip? Don't see the wisdom of that, if it is correct, as he then might well have blown up earlier. I can't honestly see what other way he could've ridden the horse to have obtained any better position than he did. There weren't too many options, other than to have blasted him out and gone to the front, which would definitely have seen him end up gasping for air, I feel.

I do feel we're not thinking enough about his preparatus interruptus - perhaps the yard would've rested him longer if he'd been a regular handicapper, but with the weight of popular expectation (and perhaps far more hype from the racing Press than was warranted) of a royal win on top of the wedding - we don't know. Perhaps Madge said to Stoute, look, if he's sound, just send him out there. What will be will be. I'm sure Ryan isn't going to have his head on a pike outside the Tower for the ride.
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I very much doubt that too and indeed I do not think Moore gave it a bad ride ( unlike Dettori whose pull off a crawl was barmy ) but he did kick up a fuss about the rubbish at Tattenham Corner and that was part of the risk he took in not trying to take closer order sooner.
 
You doubt his head will adorn a pike outside the Tower? Crikey, Madge was a lot more disappointed than I thought. So much for modernising the royal family.

Found this little nugget: "You have to get into a reasonable place and keep out of trouble as beaten horses fall back on the downhill run towards Tattenham Corner." (The first person attributing this quote gets to wear the Golden Anorak for a week.)

Anybody think that, with hindsight, Fallon isn't disappointed he didn't get to ride? Or if he had, would the horse have improved its placing?
 
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pour moi ran such a similiar race to the one before, that i thought he might win, altho he was "too far back" for my liking.

i think the jockey got lucky.

lucky in respect of, the horse had so much in hand over an average field that he probably will bt those giving them a stone.

iv been a believer in this horse since his last run, which i thought was exceptional. (runner rup franked the form today)

however, one of my old mates mentioned ERHAAB, and i couldnt arhue with him.

my belief is we have seen a horse that will be tough to bt.
the jockey will be the only one to get him bt.
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as for carlton house,
possibly needs softer ground,
but looks a G3 horse.

the idiot who spouts nonsense about winning multiple G1s must have been on the white powder
 
It's a great pedi - STREET CRY won over £3.5m plying his trade on dirt and artificial surfaces only, all Fast, from 6f sprints to middle distance 7f, mile, and 1m 3f races and his own sire MACHIAVELLIAN, a great miler, produced good 2 y.o.'s but better 3 y.o's. TALENTED's sire BUSTINO was by BUSTED, terrific at up to 12f, but it's MACHIAVELLIAN's own dam, HELEN STREET (by TROY, no less), who is the go-to for distance, winning at 13.3f.

There is staying power and great versatility in the history.
 
It was because I thought of Machiavellian as a miler. Always look for Busted in staying chasers. Quite a cocktail of speed and stamina, then!
 
Yes, a very nice range of possibilities from grass to artificial, from sprints to staying. And, as far as I know, all sound stock, too.
 
Ah Helen Street - didn't she win the Irish Oaks ?

I remember her lining up in the Fillies Mile and they fancied her strongly but an HRAC trained Piggott ridden horse cantered all over her- Oh So Sharp !
 
Ardross said:
Ah Helen Street - didn't she win the Irish Oaks ?

I remember her lining up in the Fillies Mile and they fancied her strongly but an HRAC trained Piggott ridden horse cantered all over her- Oh So Sharp !
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Yes, at 2 she won the Prix du Calvados (G3) and broke the track record and ran second to Oh So Sharp in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot. At 3 she won the Irish Oaks having previously run third to Oh So Sharp in the Nell Gwynn. She was withdrawn from Epsom after a poor run in the Musidora (4th)
 
Gearoid said:
Am I alone in thinking the winner was staying on rather than quickening? I'm not saying he was not might impressive but I would not back him over 10f or in an Arc.
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He was doing both. When horses pass others like they are standing still they are obviously quickening, rather than merely staying on in relative terms. It was a fast time, especially given the sluggish start for the majority of the field.

While I wouldn't be confident his manner would suit 10 furlongs (unless it was run his way), I'd fancy him to run well in the Arc. He doesn't need to be held up as he has more than enough stamina (as you stay). Assuming he can go the early pace in the Arc (which I believe he can) he should do very well.
 
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moehat said:
What is Carlton Houses pedigree? They mentioned it briefly before the race and I just thought to myself that it didn't sound as if he'd stay.
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As I mentioned earlier:

The relatively unexposed Carlton House conforms to a virtual blueprint reading for a Derby candidate with a DI of 1.0 and a CD of 0.17. The son of Street Cry has good speed influences through his tail-male (top) line, but crucially he also derives stamina from his dam sire Bustino through Busted and Crepello before him.
 
krizon said:
Anybody think that, with hindsight, Fallon isn't disappointed he didn't get to ride? Or if he had, would the horse have improved its placing?
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Ironic that Native Khan finished a place ahead of Recital. Whether Fallon would have made a difference on either of them who can say. I suspect it would only have been by degree (at most) rather than kind. Although as mentioned before I would expect Recital to pick up good races away from Epsom.
 
Ardross said:
Ah Helen Street - didn't she win the Irish Oaks ?

I remember her lining up in the Fillies Mile and they fancied her strongly but an HRAC trained Piggott ridden horse cantered all over her- Oh So Sharp !
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She won the Irish Oaks on the same day as Live Aid.
 
The more you look into CARLTON HOUSE's rellies, the more impressive the list becomes in terms of achievements at top level. And the breeding didn't result in a mish-mash of neither taking speed from one or stamina from the other - I guess what was hoped for was sustained speed over distance, which he would seem to have.

I wouldn't make excuses for not winning the Derby due to throwing a shoe in the closing yards, or even a slightly tardy start, or even going wide on the bend. You can rummage too hard in the Box of Excuses. I would say, if it's any reason at all, it's because of the interruptions to the flow of prep work, where at top athletic level, even a couple of weeks off will affect performance. It happens with human athletes, it happens with greyhounds, so we know it's got to happen with horses. It disrupts a lot to pick up even a small injury - the routine, the expectation of being taken out each morning for work, the foodstuffs (surely he couldn't have remained on full rations of high energy feed for the time he was out?), and the boredom. You have to then rapidly bring him round to being on track again - if he sweated up beforehand, it may well have been nervous energy at coming out of a brief enforced rest and realising he was going straight into competition. That's not to apply human emotions to horses, but most competitive horses don't enjoy time off (they're too full of pep) and then get very excited when they realise they're back with the buzz.

It's just my thought on it - for what it's worth. (About 35p.)
 
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