Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

To put a rating on Carlton House..we have a marker from the past who ran the first 8.5f in the same time.... Galileo ..Galileo was about a 126 horse the day he won the Derby would you all agree?

Galileo first 8.5f = 115.7
Carlton House first 8.5f = 115.7

Galileo overall corrected time = 155.10
Carlton House = 155.70

so today.. using Galileo as a marker Carlton House has run to a mark of 120

so even though there is just a length between them..PM is about a 9lb better horse than CH

traditional handiicapping would have them much closer..about 2lb?..similar to Shahrastani and DB..on paper S beat DB..but the sectionals would have shown DB was the better horse by some way
 
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Excellent analysis as always EC. What did you make of Recital and what Smullen said he leant onto the rail all the way up the straight and couldn't ride him out. Maybe one for the Irish Derby although Nick thinks Apache is the one for that :whistle:
 
On The Bridle said:
Excellent analysis as always EC. What did you make of Recital and what Smullen said he leant onto the rail all the way up the straight and couldn't ride him out. Maybe one for the Irish Derby although Nick thinks Apache is the one for that :whistle:
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his head carriage was unreal wasn't it?..he made ground well i thought but it were hard work..he was well back at one point..i couldn't really back him with much confidence unless they sort him out..he's definately got ability but head ain't right:)
 
Interesting stuff EC. I always worry about "going allowances" with these things because they are crucial but maybe a bit hard to determine (not that ive tried)

I think (as I said) Dancing Brave could have won by couple of lengths if ridden with stamina confidence. The winner of that race went on to win the irish derby too i recall, so wasnt all that bad

Wonder what the handicapper did at the time? Surely they did take a view on the finish? (although think there was an argument that DB couldnt have run any other way, which was subsequently wrong but understandable at the time)
 
Was thinking about Recital. There have been a few that "didnt handle the track" and finished well back in past, but how many really went on and set the world alight? Memory is crap so theres probably loads, but cant think of any right now
 
clivex said:
Interesting stuff EC. I always worry about "going allowances" with these things because they are crucial but maybe a bit hard to determine (not that ive tried)

I think (as I said) Dancing Brave could have won by couple of lengths if ridden with stamina confidence. The winner of that race went on to win the irish derby too i recall, so wasnt all that bad

Wonder what the handicapper did at the time? Surely they did take a view on the finish? (although think there was an argument that DB couldnt have run any other way, which was subsequently wrong but understandable at the time)
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the going allowance is key as you say Clive..as with anything else its never going to be 100%..nothing is really..even the timings aren't going to be to the nearest thousandth..but..by looking at races in this way you can get a pretty good idea of the merit of a horse's run in a race.

The times i've used from the past haven't come from slow ground years..i think then you get problems..its amazing how similar the ground is each year for the Derby..they do a great job with the track..its usually just in the Good/ good to firm area..unless nature has taken over of course

I do think todays winner is smart..rest of them probably G2 hosses;)..
 
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Met Paul Ostermeyer there yesterday and he said word was it was a bit faster down middle of track. Wouldnt know myself but something in that maybe?
 
I am not quite sure what to make of the race but Pour Moi did pick up very impressively . I am bemused by the riding tactics in so many recent Derbies why are high class AOB horses given so much rope up front ? What happened to the Lester method of being fourth/ fifth round Tattenham Corner nowadays jockeys get too far back and are all getting panicky .

As for Carlton House I thought he might win 2 out but the way he flattened out makes me wonder if he truly got the trip . I am sorry they did not run Nathaniel but most of all that Frankel was missing
 
But Barzalona rode a typical French race - far from 'too far back', he was the back. He didn't fuss at the horse and he took as wide a route as CARLTON HOUSE as well as having to make up the entire field's length - at one point he must've been a full 15l adrift from the front, which is a phenomenal amount of distance to chew through and accelerate so strongly at the finish - a finish where, in fact, he's having his teeth pulled out as Barzalona grandstands wildly and is pulling up before the finish line.

I can't see anything worse than that CARLTON HOUSE didn't have as much left in the tank as POUR MOI, while POUR MOI looked as if he had enough in it to go a further 2f easily.
 
Am I alone in thinking the winner was staying on rather than quickening? I'm not saying he was not might impressive but I would not back him over 10f or in an Arc.
 
What is Carlton Houses pedigree? They mentioned it briefly before the race and I just thought to myself that it didn't sound as if he'd stay.
 
I calculate Pour Moi's time at 117, inclusive of weight-for-age, which is pretty moderate for a Derby and confirms the visual impression that the overall pace wasn't that strong. You wouldn't expect an outstanding time where just over two lengths covers the first five home.
 
It would appear that the likes of TDK and Prufrock no longer post on here, having gone over entirely to Twitter. I think that's a pity because their contributions were always interesting but in the interests of stimulating further discussion, here's TDK's take on the Derby: http://jamesaknight.wordpress.com/2011/06/04/the-derby-that-had-the-lot/

I couldn't disagree with him more about Barzalona's antics. The jockey could not have known that he'd got the race won. He clearly believed he had, which is not the same thing at all. First impressions as they passed the post were that he'd got up but I defy anyone to say that there wasn't a sharp intake of breath watching the immediate re-run from the BBC's on-the-line camera as it became clear just how close it was going to be. I agree that the jockey should be hailed as an exciting prospect but that doesn't mean he can't be criticised for his premature celebrations.
 
What was the other race recently when a jockey celebrated his victory in a similar fashion, only to find that he'd lost the race in a photo? However, his celebration was after the wining post on that occassion. Again, I felt very embarrassed that day watching it. There are two kinds of jockey..the 'me, me, me' variety and the 'look what an amazing horse I've just ridden' kind. I know which I prefer.
 
The Post's comments now find their way into the official Form Book and I suspect it will be the first time these words, on the subject of Pour Moi, have made an appearance in that publication: "sustained run inside final furlong to lead near finish, jockey bolt upright and celebrating last strides."
 
That was the Dubai world cup a few years ago. Shea on lizard island I think?

I've watched the race back now and I think there were a bunch of decent stayers with a top class 10f horse (Carlton House) and a top class 12f horse in pour moi. I think the winner will win the Arc.
 
One of them said yesterday that Andre does things his way and Fabre himself confirmed he would be given a French autumn campaign. coolmore have plenty for the king George already. Makes perfect sense.
 
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