Road to the Gold Cup 2011

On The Bridle said:
Ain't no 12's left now Steve - serious run - and very wise to leave him till March now - hope the Imperial decision is to miss Kpton and take maybe one race in Jan and then to the GC.
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He's come out of the race really well by all accounts. The intitial impression was that they would give him a break now and shoot straight for the Gold Cup. I'd be happy enough if they did this, although they also said earlierin the season that he's getting on now and there's no point wrapping him in cotton wool.

I'd be surprised if they didn't give him a warm up race (or two) before mid-March.
 
Moehat - I hear that Iron Mike loves Polos and is especially fond of a tickle behind his ears...

There is something shuttered about DENMAN, unlike KAUTO, who looks out at the camera and his fans in a bright, open manner. It's like Morrissey compared to Robbie Williams.
 
Us girls like our men to be mean and moody....albeit not in a Morriseyesque way..more Jim Morrisonesque...
 
On paper it looks a fine trial - but for me, and clearly I am in the minority, Denman did not travel or jump like the horse of old for much of the race - just lost something for me. I will be looking elsewhere for the Gold Cup winner.
 
Galileo said:
Denman did not travel or jump like the horse of old for much of the race - just lost something for me.
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The race was run at a faster pace than his other two Hennessy's and he kept up well with the winner until blundering two out. Four out he totally out jumped Diamond Harry only to see his rival immediately get back on the bridle. There is no other horse in training who could have kept going as long as he did giving that much weight away.
I know Granger disagrees but for me he lost the Gold Cup last year in the Aon and should be spot on come March.
 
Euronymous said:
The race was run at a faster pace than his other two Hennessy's and he kept up well with the winner until blundering two out. Four out he totally out jumped Diamond Harry only to see his rival immediately get back on the bridle. There is no other horse in training who could have kept going as long as he did giving that much weight away.
I know Granger disagrees but for me he lost the Gold Cup last year in the Aon and should be spot on come March.
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If anything beats Denman at Cheltenham its going to have to run to at least the mid-180s and there aren't too many capable of that at Cheltenham.;)
 
Martin: Jim Morrison was lead singer with The Doors, a great group active in the 1970s. Incredibly good-looking, sadly got wasted, died.
 
Ardross said:
Kauto ! :p
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Indeed, he could be one. Although (as you know) I don't think Cheltenham is ideal for Kauto.

As I said on the other thread Diamond Harry had to run 7lb better than his previous best and Burton Port 12lb better (on RPRs) to get Denman beat. One of them was always liable to do it... two of them did. However, both beat Denman by the best part of a stone (as Denman was deemed to have run right up to his OR of 182 and only a little below his very best).

This puts Denman just about where he should be to win back the Gold Cup. To beat him something else would have to run to about the mid-180s and like I say there aren’t too many capable of that at Cheltenham. Other than Kauto Star the one horse that is virtually up to this is Imperial Commander, who also ran to 182 when beating Denman last time... so not much in it at the moment.

If Diamond Harry is the next best (in betting at least) he has at least another 10lb to find, which I think will be beyond him for this season at least.
 
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They went a crawl in his first win and in his second Neptune Collonges was almost a pacemaker.

He didn't travel in Denman's year.
He didn't travel last year.
He fell in his attempt to win a Queen Mother.
 
Euronymous said:
They went a crawl in his first win and in his second Neptune Collonges was almost a pacemaker.

He didn't travel in Denman's year.
He didn't travel last year.
He fell in his attempt to win a Queen Mother.
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But I do not understand the logic of him "not handing a fast pace" at Cheltenham when the horse clearly had no trouble with the final part of the track when quickening up to win the race twice. Presumably when they did press on hard on a track and pace that he cannot handle then he would have struggled - when in truth he was magnificent.

He either handles the track or he doesn't.
 
They didn't quicken until after the second last in his first win. I think he's a horse that is unbeatable when he gets into a nice rhythm with his jumping - and I think that just hasn't happened when he met with defeats in the race.

Ultimately Denman leads their Gold Cup matchups 2-1, has never been out of the first two in Five Festival runs and yet is almost twice the price of for the 2011 renewal. Surely a no brainer from a punting point of view.

The fact we're even talking about a fourth meeting is awesome though.
 
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They only quickened up from the second last? They hack cantered down the back the second time and down the hill? Me thinks not.

I would not back either for the Gold Cup.
 
I haven't got that particular renewal on my hard drive but they went such a pace that allowed Kauto to get a nice jumping rhythm going.
 
Galileo said:
They only quickened up from the second last? They hack cantered down the back the second time and down the hill? Me thinks not.

I would not back either for the Gold Cup.
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Not far from the truth, odd as it seems. Fergus Wilson was beginning to count his each-way winnings ;)
 
Galileo said:
But I do not understand the logic of him "not handing a fast pace" at Cheltenham when the horse clearly had no trouble with the final part of the track when quickening up to win the race twice. Presumably when they did press on hard on a track and pace that he cannot handle then he would have struggled - when in truth he was magnificent.

He either handles the track or he doesn't.
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Agreed - Ruby was of the view he wasn't right in 2008 and then this year he was travelling fine until he made that horrible mistake when they were going slowly rather than fast and that knocked the stuffing out of him - a lesser horse would have been long since pulled up when he came down - with hindsight perhaps he should have been but I suspect Ruby thought he would still be in the first three .

Horses that do not handle Cheltenham do not win 2 Gold Cups .
 
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Ardross said:
Horses that do not handle Cheltenham do not win 2 Gold Cups .
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Desert Orchid didn't like the track either and Brigadier Gerard didn't stay 12f. Having a big class advantage gives tip top horses the wiggle room lesser animals do not have. He didn't need to be anywhere near his Kempton form for his first victory in the race and Denman wasn't in the form to test him in his second.
 
Euronymous said:
Desert Orchid didn't like the track either and Brigadier Gerard didn't stay 12f. Having a big class advantage gives tip top horses the wiggle room lesser animals do not have. He didn't need to be anywhere near his Kempton form for his first victory in the race and Denman wasn't in the form to test him in his second.
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Desert Orchid won the race just when he was stones the best horse in the race - he never won there otherwise . Brigadier Gerard won just about the worst ever running of the KG in 1972 scraping home from a stayer Parnell. Kauto has won 2 Gold Cups beating all the best horses around - Exotic Dancer was in third and Neptune was further behind KS than he had been behind Denman the year before .

I do not doubt that Kauto has a greater margin of superiority over 3m at Kempton than over 3m2f at Cheltenham but that does not mean he does not handle the track . Age may catch up with him this year but he handles the track
 
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