Road to the Gold Cup 2011

SteveM said:
Tidal Bay in a small field where he can boss these others is a stone cold sober bet with a better chance of a return than the two ahead of him in the market. What would be "deranged" is to bet against him on these terms with two short priced horses that are no value.
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I have an issue with the assertion that Tidal Bay is capable of "bossing" them. His jumping will get him into trouble - as it usually does - and he will be on the back foot from the first ditch.

Tidal Bay has won 11 times and been placed 11 times in 27 starts and he's won four times at Cheltenham and been runner-up twice.
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Completely irrelevant considering none of those wins have come over fences in the last two-and-a-half seasons.

The question really is - when he is also clear best on the terms - is it not more deranged not to back him at around 5/1!
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If those terms are based on an over-enthusiastic interpretation of his run behind Imperial Commander, then yes. Besides, his 'mark' cannot be looked at in isolation, imo. All the other factors; ropy jumper, moody generally, hard to win with etc all have to be taken into consideration, as far as I'm concerned. At 14/1, you might be prepared to roll the dice, but for me, the risk/reward case can't be made at 5/1.

Please do fill your boots, Steve. if I don't have a bet in the race, and Tidal Bay wins, I will be the first to congratulate you. So long as there are no excuses offered-up for him should he be beaten. ;)
 
It's plain as day to me old mate. In 15 chase starts he has won six and been placed in six, so unplaced only three times. He makes mistakes when he struggles with relative weight, when relatively unencumbered, like now, he excels. He will take the beating on Saturday. I'd back him if the front three in the market were the same price... so I'm bound to back him given the circumstances, aren't I?

I'm actually hoping that Punchestowns will be good enough to win this even though I've backed Tidal Bay. I love Punchestowns, but logic dictates that Tidal Bay is likelier to beat him on this occasion.
 
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There's something odd about him but I don't think he's a dog (as in I usually think a horse is a dog if he's funny about putting his head in front under pressure - I don't ever remember this happening with Tidal Bay).
 
Bar the Bull said:
I'm just saying that Steve is perfectly entitled to back TB (I may do so myself). But to expect people to think he's not a dog when he has woofed on thousands of occasions is futile.
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Isn't the point of a forum to bounce ideas around? I'm simply responding to outstanding contradictions and attempting to move the discussion forward by referring to facts. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I'm not like some (and I don't mean you) who are taciturn about it now but try to look clever after the fact.
 
Bar the Bull said:
But to expect people to think he's not a dog when he has woofed on thousands of occasions is futile.
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In answer to this I can only restate that In 15 chase starts he has won six and been placed in six, so unplaced only three times. I'd like to own dogs like this... thousands of times.
 
I thinkwe're all having a jolly robust and generally friendly differnce of opinion, so no issues here as far as I'm concerned.

Steve, you mention facts, and I'm not going to tell you that yours are wrong - they clearly aren't.

But a more subtle interpretation of those 'placed' efforts is required, imo. Have a look at the race comments for most of those placed efforts and you will find "never a threat", "not trouble winner", "stayed on to take X" liberally sprinkled throughout.

In my opinion, Tidal Bay will be incapable of "bossing" this field as you predict. I can see him jumping sketchily, racing in the final pair for most of the first 20f, rowed along from 5 out, and running on late to perhaps snatch one of the places - in pretty-much the same manner as he has done in his last 10 or so steeplechases.
 
Grasshopper said:
But a more subtle interpretation of those 'placed' efforts is required, imo.
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Ah, but subtlety has never been my stong point :D

I don't need to refer to race comments as I am aware of his strengths and weaknesses and I (as opposed to you or other people) believe (for the reasons I've given) this one will play into his hooves.:p
 
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SteveM said:
...eloquent though
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Not even that, I fear. :o

Getting back to the Gold Cup, I'm still very sweet on Imperial Commander. I've tried to find one to get him beat, but I keep coming back to the track form. He's never not run up to his best here, and his best puts him well clear of the remainder (Tidal Bay's imminent humping in the Argento, nothwithstanding :D).

You couldn't have Kauto, Denman is an 11yo who couldn't beat him last season, and the remainder have plenty to find. For all that he's a 10yo, and for all that there are a few promising horses in opposition, I'm surprised that the 7/2 is holding-up - he should be a 2/1 chance, imo.
 
I've backed IC enough to cover my stake on Denman... but if Tidal Bay were to line up on the day at a price of 50/1... he'd be better than Norton's Coin say.
 
SteveM said:
In answer to this I can only restate that In 15 chase starts he has won six and been placed in six, so unplaced only three times. I'd like to own dogs like this... thousands of times.
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I'm confused do dogs run in horse races?
 
Time For Rupert is out of the Argento Chase. I will never back a 6/4 shot before the day of the race again!
 
Scoped badly can still take the 5/2 and 5/1 about Punchestowns and Tidal Bay bookies slow to act.
 
SteveM said:
In answer to this I can only restate that In 15 chase starts he has won six and been placed in six, so unplaced only three times. I'd like to own dogs like this... thousands of times.
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the problem is he has only won once in his last 12 starts though...in 5 of those he was less than 3/1 in the betting..on two other occasions 4/1 & 9/2

I would expect at least one of those runs..maybe two ..when reasonably fancied.. to have resulted in a win

basically he isn't winning as often as he should is he?

the one plus on Saturday is that he is running over a trip that should suit..looks like he wants 4 miles these days :)
 
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...if any more drop out he'll only have himself to beat... I reckon he might do that and I'm on at 5s to find out.;)
 
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