Road to the Gold Cup 2011

Denman as L. Ron Hubbard.

You'd be inclined to believe, if it wasn't for the litany of nutters who follow him.

:D
 
Been told this morning that Imperial Commander is to have a racecourse gallop at Newbury presumably on Saturday week
 
I wouldn't bother this year. If he were mine I'd run him in the World Hurdle, get a good few schooling sessions into him during the off season and then have him in the Hennessy off 158.
 
EC1 said:
he has gone from a win bet chance to a place bet chance then Steve? :)

another fortnight you'll be on something else:p
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Never claimed I thought he was a certainty this year, just that 12/1 was outstanding value, as I believe he only really has Imperial Commander to beat.

I've backed Denman and Tidal Bay to moderate size this time (no point being greedy at these prices) with a little on Imperial Commander to defend my stake on the other two. Nearer the time and particularly on the day I intend to back Denman again to size at anything bigger than about 3/1. In other words if Denman is placed I'll do okay and if he wins it would be difficult for me to ne a loser on the week as a whole.
 
Euronymous said:
Why bother with the each way when you're covered on Imperial Commander anyway?
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My on-course main bet for the Gold Cup is almost certain to be Denman to place (as it was last time), although I'll back him to win too (but weight it). Most of what I've got on so far on Denman is win (but some each-way also). I don't usually back each-way ante-post. But for example a NRNB on Tidal Bay is as good as backing him on the day, so that is all each-way.

If Imperial Commander beats Denman again, I'll have covered my stake and hence defended my downside, but have upside on the place part for Denman (and/or Tidal Bay).
 
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SteveM said:
My on-course main bet for the Gold Cup is almost certain to be Denman to place (as it was last time), although I'll back him to win too (but weight it). Most of what I've got on so far on Denman is win (but some each-way also). I don't usually back each-way ante-post. But for example a NRNB on Tidal Bay is as good as backing him on the day, so that is all each-way.

If Imperial Commander beats Denman again, I'll have covered my stake, but have upside on the place part for Denman (and/or Tidal Bay).
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you would be better off with one large win bet on IC..that way you'll win money:)

Tidal Bay in a GC?..if you think the GC is that poor a race then IC must be a cast iron certainty
 
Imperial Commander:

Last year - Best ever run in the Betfair only just beaten by Kauto
This year - Not quite as good from a form point of view and got a cut in his leg.

Last year - Made a bad mistake early in the King George and then just had a nice spin round the track. Ran on well.
This year - No run at Christmas time.

Last year - Perfect prep for Chelt and won from a rival who had fallen last time out and wasn't quite as fresh.
This year - I would argue that this year it is Denman who has had the better preparation for the Gold Cup. In fact IC on his last two starts has either fallen or sustained an injury in winning. At his odds he is worth a cover bet but there are far better bets to be had at the Festival.
 
Euronymous said:
Imperial Commander:

Last year - Best ever run in the Betfair only just beaten by Kauto
This year - Not quite as good from a form point of view and got a cut in his leg.

Last year - Made a bad mistake early in the King George and then just had a nice spin round the track. Ran on well.
This year - No run at Christmas time.

Last year - Perfect prep for Chelt and won from a rival who had fallen last time out and wasn't quite as fresh.
This year - I would argue that this year it is Denman who has had the better preparation for the Gold Cup. In fact IC on his last two starts has either fallen or sustained an injury in winning. At his odds he is worth a cover bet but there are far better bets to be had at the Festival.
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how can Denman have had the best prep?..he hasn't run since November

is Denman going straight to the GC without a run by the way?

IC's best prep race is none..can't see that being Denmans preference
 
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Denman's 180+ performances in the Hennessy come after six months off. I don't see a prep for the Gold Cup as a problem.
 
EC1 said:
Tidal Bay in a GC?..if you think the GC is that poor a race then IC must be a cast iron certainty
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Look at the type of horses that are placed (and win) this race every year. Tidal Bay is well up to scratch.

The way I see it is that it's out of Denman and Imperial Commander. If one of them goes wrong in terms of pure ability Long Run and Tidal Bay are entitled to fill the places. The rest have a void to fill in terms of getting to these.
 
People are having problems with Denman because visually he didn't look that impressive last time. He couldn't break Diamond Harry like he has so many other animals. They cleared the fourth last and the Tank totally out-jumped him. But DH was only shouldering 10st and went right back on the bridle. If Denman runs like that at Cheltenham, jumps the 3rd and 4th last like he did at Newbury - no horse will be still on the bridle. They'll all be flailing in behind, toiling in his wake.
 
Euronymous said:
Denman's 180+ performances in the Hennessy come after six months off. I don't see a prep for the Gold Cup as a problem.
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It's not a problem. He's sparkling at the moment and doesn't need a run. If he did that wouldn't worry me either.

The problem IC has got is that he goes off the boil without a run, which is why they have organised Newbury.

Not running will inconvenience IC a hell of a lot more than Denman.
 
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