Road to the Gold Cup 2011

I haven't dismissed the KG. I just think that to say the KG is solid is wrong. It may be good form, it may be bad form, but it is certainly not solid.

I think that only two horses improved in the Hennessy (the front two).

I think that Imperial Commander will win the Gold Cup.

I think that Pandorama would have a great chance if he were fit and the ground was soft, but he is not a betting proposition.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I haven't dismissed the KG. I just think that to say the KG is solid is wrong. It may be good form, it may be bad form, but it is certainly not solid.
Click to expand...

To me RT has backed up what he did in the KG in doing what he did at the weekend. That's solid enough for me to be going on with.
 
SteveM said:
I haven't backed Long Run for the Gold Cup. But I'm beginning to wonder why I haven't.
Click to expand...

Same here. I've backed him in almost every start since the Feltham so it would be foolish to desert him now. I'm so deep in the Denman camp that the race hasn't been on my mind as much as some of the other contests.
 
Hamm said:
That is a lazy viewpoint, IMHO. He is just a better horse now, and jumped better lto than his previous Feltham run at Kempton, giving every reason to believe he will leave his previous course form behind. And, as GH points out, this is quite good in itself. Plus, at his age, he is still open to considerable improvement.
Click to expand...

A better horse now ! In the few weeks between the KG and the Paddy Power he improved to be able to win a GC and produce in essence form a good stone and a half better than his best at Cheltenham has ever been before ???.

The facts show that Long Run has produced far better form at Kempton than Cheltenham twice now . He has not jumped anywhere near as well at Cheltenham as at Kempton either . I describe it as a leap of faith - it is a lazy viewpoint , with respect , to ignore something as important as course form when Cheltenham is concerned.
 
SteveM said:
There is nothing at all to suggest that Long Run will be anywhere else than right there in the mix in the Gold Cup. His Cheltenham form shows exactly what you would expect of an improving chaser with every chance going into a race as demanding as this. His one flaw was his jumping, but they have made excellent progress with him in that respect. He surely has excellent place chances.
Click to expand...

A well beaten third in the Paddy Power - a classic illustration of a Gold Cup winner :confused:
 
Bar the Bull said:
I wouldn't take that Paddy Power form at face value.
Click to expand...
I thought the Yogi Breisner's comments about the Paddy Power were very interesting on the Morning Line. It's also important when defining the level of form he's shown at Cheltenham to remember that he was placed in a strong RSA when he was still, strictly speaking, a 4-y-o. Anyone who thinks his improvement since then is not likely to be a huge factor needs to have a rethink. There is absolutely no doubt that he improved at least a stone to win the KG, however low a view you want to take of that race, and he jumped much better there that he had when beating an inferior field in the Feltham. He's undeniably a player in the Gold Cup for all he has to conclusively prove his jumping, and particularly his stamina.
 
Ardross said:
A better horse now ! In the few weeks between the KG and the Paddy Power he improved to be able to win a GC and produce in essence form a good stone and a half better than his best at Cheltenham has ever been before ???.

The facts show that Long Run has produced far better form at Kempton than Cheltenham twice now . He has not jumped anywhere near as well at Cheltenham as at Kempton either . I describe it as a leap of faith - it is a lazy viewpoint , with respect , to ignore something as important as course form when Cheltenham is concerned.
Click to expand...

Read GHs post again, and you will see the horse has been on a steady upward curve since he arrived in Britain.
 
rorydelargy said:
I thought the Yogi Breisner's comments about the Paddy Power were very interesting on the Morning Line. It's also important when defining the level of form he's shown at Cheltenham to remember that he was placed in a strong RSA when he was still, strictly speaking, a 4-y-o. Anyone who thinks his improvement since then is not likely to be a huge factor needs to have a rethink. There is absolutely no doubt that he improved at least a stone to win the KG, however low a view you want to take of that race, and he jumped much better there that he had when beating an inferior field in the Feltham. He's undeniably a player in the Gold Cup for all he has to conclusively prove his jumping, and particularly his stamina.
Click to expand...

Good post. I would change the latter part to give up betting. :D

I agree with you though stamina could be his undoing, but it's not a huge concern, as he seemed to get better the further he went at Kempton.
 
Ardross said:
A well beaten third in the Paddy Power - a classic illustration of a Gold Cup winner :confused:
Click to expand...

Perhaps I'm in the minority but I thought that his PP run was high calibre. Sometimes I don't know what people expect of horses. He's a young horse. I'm not quite expecting him to win this time, but next time he could well be favourite to do so and live up to that expectation.
 
Does anyone else look at Imperial Commander, think that all logic points to him being the most likely winner, but for some reason just can't see it happening?
 
Hamm said:
Does anyone else look at Imperial Commander, think that all logic points to him being the most likely winner, but for some reason just can't see it happening?
Click to expand...

For me he's not especially consistent and goes off the boil quickly when he's not had a race (hence the racecourse gallops). He may win but is just as likely to be unplaced for me (whereas Denman is sure to be at least placed imo). Hence the value in Tidal Bay/Kempes and co.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
For me he's not especially consistent and goes off the boil quickly when he's not had a race...
Click to expand...

That's an opinion entirely at odds with the facts. He arguably goes off the boil immediately after a race, but his record fresh is almost immaculate. I see where Hamm's coming from though, as there's definitely a niggle there despite him looking good on paper. I cannot understand why they bypassed the Cotswold Chase, given how keen NT-D is on prepping his horses at Cheltenham, and he was NEVER going to run in the KG despite his trainer's rant about not re-opening the race - he loves a cheeky row does Twister.
 
Not sure this is "entirely at odds with the facts" Rory. The very reason for the racecourse gallops is that they have been getting a bit twitchy at home as he hadn't been showing up in work. His last 10 starts show 4 1 6 1 PU 2 5 1 UR 1, a bit patchy for me for maximum confidence.

Some might argue the same applies to Denman... but I am more prepared to overlook his actual finishing positions as the quality of his performances have been pretty good through a difficult period for him. I'm optimistic that his problems are mostly behind him, unfortunately this coincides with age creeping up. However, I can't see Denman running a bad race. Something I can't be sure about for Imperial Commander.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
Not sure this is "entirely at odds with the facts" Rory. The very reason for the racecourse gallops is that they have been getting a bit twitchy at home as he hadn't been showing up in work. His last 10 starts show 4 1 6 1 PU 2 5 1 UR 1, a bit patchy for me for maximum confidence.
Click to expand...

I don't deny that his record looks patchy when taken overall - I was arguing about your assertion that he goes off the boil when not racing. His record after a 60+ day break reads as follows: 1111211
 
This is true and I don’t deny that they have done great work in getting him ready (as they are doing now) but it takes a lot of hard work and racecourse gallops to get him ready if he has not raced (seemingly more so than others), so I’d not be sure “fresh” is quite the term.
 
...that's the question. Whether it's the break or the hard work. They have been at pains to up his game as he had gone "off the boil".
 
A bumper horse beat him in a two mile gallop - NTD is not worried about that so I will do the worrying for him clasping my ante-post docket in my cold sweaty hand while I count sheep for the next twenty three nights!:rolleyes:
 
Back
Top