EC1
On a break
his two best wins were at kempton..is that significant in itself though?
Road to the Gold Cup 2011
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
his two best wins were at kempton..is that significant in itself though?
With regard to Denmans latest op, I keep wondering what happened in the dark days before horses had wind ops on a regular basis? How many different racing results would we have seen over the years. However, my limited knowledge of such things makes me recognise the words 'hobday operation' as one that's been around for a long time.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I think it's borderline whether his Feltham win was any better than his RSA Chase run, to be honest. He was getting a half-stone wfa at Kempton, and only 1lb from much better animals at Cheltenham.
Of course, it's entirely possible that Kempton is 'his track', and he may always prove better round there, but equally, it's perhaps a dangerous assumption to consider Cheltenham to be all against him. The emphasis on stamina at the latter venue might be more of an issue, than any inherent inability to run up to form at the track.
EC1
On a break
Cheltenham may not be all against him - to be fair it doesn't need to be..its only got to be a slight disadvantage and its takes away his edge
we have seen this so many times before..and in reverse.
there is enough for me not to back him anyway..but he proved me wrong before
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Agreed. If it is a slight disadvantage, he seems less likely to make up the improvement he will need to trouble Imperial Commander.
The same statement applies to Diamond Harry, which is why I think the favourite is a good thing. The only 'negatives' against Imperial Commander are his age (though he is relatively lightly-raced) his minor setback prior to the originally-scheduled King George (which amounted to very little, according to the trainer), and the proximity of Tidal Bay at Haydock (where the runner-up was hugely flattered, imo).
I'm not saying IC is bullet-proof, but he has very few questions to answer as far as I'm concerned, and 7/2 is a more than fair price
The same statement applies to Diamond Harry, which is why I think the favourite is a good thing. The only 'negatives' against Imperial Commander are his age (though he is relatively lightly-raced) his minor setback prior to the originally-scheduled King George (which amounted to very little, according to the trainer), and the proximity of Tidal Bay at Haydock (where the runner-up was hugely flattered, imo).
I'm not saying IC is bullet-proof, but he has very few questions to answer as far as I'm concerned, and 7/2 is a more than fair price
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EC1
On a break
Agreed. If it is a slight disadvantage, he seems less likely to make up the improvement he will need to trouble Imperial Commander.
The same statement applies to Diamond Harry, which is why I think the favourite is a good thing. The only 'negatives' against Imperial Commander are his age (though he is relatively lightly-raced) his minor setback prior to the originally-scheduled King George (which amounted to very little, according to the trainer), and the proximity of Tidal Bay at Haydock (where the runner-up was hugely flattered, imo).
I'm not saying IC is bullet-proof, but he has very few questions to answer as far as I'm concerned, and 7/2 is a more than fair price
that image of TB catching him is throwing a slight doubt in my mind about him tbh..its in the book with him..but is he going to be 100%?
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
I don't know how anyone can say with authority that Long Run doesn't act around Cheltenham and it would be rash to write him off on that basis. He's come third on both runs, once in a RSA and once in a Paddy Power, making jumping mistakes both times. He is still somewhat a dark horse in the race.
That said I still think the race is between Imperial Commander and Denman, with preference for the latter at this stage. Diamond Harry should be thereabouts but I still worry a lot about his jumping. I can see him running a good race to come fourth orr fifth.
That said I still think the race is between Imperial Commander and Denman, with preference for the latter at this stage. Diamond Harry should be thereabouts but I still worry a lot about his jumping. I can see him running a good race to come fourth orr fifth.
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swedish chef
At the Start
I've finally decided I'm in the Long Run camp - Yogi Briesner worked with him before the King George and I'm sure I read he'll be doing some more work with him - in Yogi I trust.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I see he's been given an RPR of 172... 1lb higher than his KG rating. both top class and consistent it would appear.
If you needed prompting to back Long Run, RT surely couldn't have underlined more emphatically what some of us already knew... that the KG form is solid.
There is nothing at all to suggest that Long Run will be anywhere else than right there in the mix in the Gold Cup. His Cheltenham form shows exactly what you would expect of an improving chaser with every chance going into a race as demanding as this. His one flaw was his jumping, but they have made excellent progress with him in that respect. He surely has excellent place chances.
EC1
On a break
by beating a 2 miler over 2.5 miles he just showed he's still got 4 legs imo..which is consistent ..but doesn't alter anything else.
it certainly won't help LR be suited to Cheltenham..if he doesn't like it on the day
imo
Bar the Bull
At the Start
This is a joke, right?
King George finishers:
Long Run - yet to run
Riverside Theatre - beat a 2 miler in a race in which the main rival died. He would have been 4/6 to beat that field without Pride of Dulcote
Kauto Star - jumped like a goat with a low-grade infection. He ran like a horse with a low-grade infection. He had a low-grade infection.
Nacarat - required an operation after the race
Planet of Sound - also required an operation after the race
Madison du Berlais - last and pulled up on his two subsequent runs
Listen, the form may be solid. Long Run may be a Gold Cup winner in waiting*. But there is nothing in he performances or welfare of any of the horses since the race to suggest it is solid form.
* Long Run is not a Gold Cup winner in waiting.
I presume you are dismissing the Hennessey form in exactly the same way considering Denman had an operation afterwards?
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I think the Hennessey form is worth very little, but not for the reason you give.
Also I believe that Denman was not given an operation because of the form shown in the Hennessy being so poor.
Also I believe that Denman was not given an operation because of the form shown in the Hennessy being so poor.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I just don't see how Steve can draw positive conclusions about the KG form on the evidence iin front of us.
I can see how the AP voucher burning a hole in his pocket can lead him to draw positive conclusions.
I can see how the AP voucher burning a hole in his pocket can lead him to draw positive conclusions.
I haven't backed Long Run for the Gold Cup. But I'm beginning to wonder why I haven't.
Why not? He's still a young horse... if not this time then perhaps next.
Surely the evidence of your eyes suggests it was better than this. Not to mention a new personal best rating.
What it does prove is that Long Run may not be totally useless after all. He's a horse that with a bit of improvement in his jumping looks okay round Cheltenham to me.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
And yet you have been very premature dismissing the Hennessy despite the fact that none the front three have been out since.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I haven't dismissed it. My hunch is that it's not up to snuff.
I think the negative for the Hennessy form (for me) is your point - I wouldn't be confident any horse can win a Gold Cup off such a break, regardless of how good they are supposed to be fresh.