Road to the Gold Cup 2011

Bar the Bull said:
This is a joke, right?

King George finishers:

Long Run - yet to run
Riverside Theatre - beat a 2 miler in a race in which the main rival died. He would have been 4/6 to beat that field without Pride of Dulcote
Kauto Star - jumped like a goat with a low-grade infection. He ran like a horse with a low-grade infection. He had a low-grade infection.
Nacarat - required an operation after the race
Planet of Sound - also required an operation after the race
Madison du Berlais - last and pulled up on his two subsequent runs

Listen, the form may be solid. Long Run may be a Gold Cup winner in waiting*. But there is nothing in he performances or welfare of any of the horses since the race to suggest it is solid form.

* Long Run is not a Gold Cup winner in waiting.
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The form of Kauto Star's first King George would hardly have passed much inspection. Racing Demon closer up than Riverside was to Long Run and who's that back in fifth, Puntal? LoL
 
Listen, I am not saying that Long Run has no chance of being top class. But to use the King George as rock solid, is not on in my opinion.

As an aside, I think you are being a bit unfair to Kauto's first KG sixth.

Exotic Dancer (after doing the 2m5f Cheltenham double) was beaten 8l.
Racing Demon was 10l back. This was not the Racing Demon that Hadden Frost chases around at 50/1 for the past year, but the Racing Demon who had just beaten Thisthatandtother 4L and Monkerhostin 9L in the Peterborough. In fact I think that King George precipitated his downfall as he tried to go with one of the greats round the home bend.

Monkerhostin was beaten 30L into fourth. At the time, Monkerhostin was one of the classiest and most consistent chasers in training, regularly running into the low 160s.

And using Puntal as fifth is facetious. He was beaten practically 40l.

The only serious horse who didn't run within 5lb of their rating in that race was Monet's Garden.
 
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Taking any race as gospel isn't a wise move I agree, but treating one like it didn't exist probably isn't the best either.
 
I would argue that Monkerhostin was below form that day (the Peterborough form suggests this was the case) and that Racing Demon was quite overrated asa younghorse. I'm not saying the form was gash, just that it wasn't exhibit number 1 in building a case for Kauto's first crack at the Gold Cup.
 
Long Run:
Since Kempton we've been able to leave him alone and freshen him up. He's exactly where we'd want him to be. I'd be very happy with him. It's been different to last year because he started the season a fresh horse. We always said the King George was his major objective but one has to accept that wasn't the Kauto Star we all know that day and Long Run still has to prove he can beat that horse when on-song.
I don't really worry over the track at Cheltenham as I can see why things didn't go according to plan on the two times he's been there. He was just feeling the end of a long season in the RSA last March and was a bit flat. He then started the year a bit fresh and to be fair a two mile five handicap when they go lickerty split just took him out of his comfort zone in the Paddy Power. He'll find the three miles two of the Gold Cup much easier and Sam, like at Kempton, can find his space, find his rhythm and they'll be fine.
He's my best (Gold Cup prospect) by quite a long way, I suspect. Marlborough (fourth in 2002) was knocking on the door a bit and I suppose he was as close as we've been to having a Gold Cup horse. We just haven't had one.
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Look, each to their own, but I'm not going to back an inexperienced horse, with doubtful stamina, on a track on which he has twice failed to run to his best at single figure odds on the basis of a King George performance that I see as an effective match. Maybe I'll miss a winner.
 
Bar

I think many people underestimate "course" form..and yet week in week out its demonstrated to be very important to quite a number of horses.

If people want to back a horse with stamina and course doubts then there isn't much more of an argument to put..personally i wouldn't touch LR with a bargepole at Cheltenham..but when he runs at kempton again..i'll view him in a different light.

Just on the stamina front..the last thing you want is a horse turning to face that cheltenham hill with a lack of stamina

3 miles round Kempton is not proof of 3m2f stamina at Cheltenham

Edredon Bleu is a good example of how stamina sapping Kempton is..he won a KG but never won further than 2m5 at any other course

so it could that 3m at Kempton equates to a "standard" 2m5f.

it could be argued that 3m2f at Cheltenham equates to 3m3f anywhere else

so its quite a leap of faith to expect a horse to stay those extra "6f" in real terms
 
EC1 said:
Edredon Bleu is a good example of how stamina sapping Kempton is..he won a KG but never won further than 2m5 at any other course
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He only tried 3m once at a different course, when he was already 13 and evidence pointed to him being gone.

3m at Kempton equates to 3m at Kempton. That's it I reckon.
 
not sure what knowing 3m at Kempton is 3m at kempton tells you David..an answer that told me bugger all;)


3 miles atKempton doesn't equate to staying 3m at Cheltenham..and certainly not 3m2 at Chjeltenham
 
LUKE said:
How many times was Edredon Bleu asked to race 3 miles or more?.
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if he stayed 3miles Luke they wouldn't have dicked about at 2m5 for so long..they would have been going for all the 3 milers..the answer is in the form.

anyway..if people believe that 3m at Kempton is the same as 3 mile at Cheltenham..then fair play to them is what i say;)
 
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Not to mention the Tingle Creek. Horses acquire more stamina as they get older and slower anyway. I'd target Kauto Star at the Whitbread if he were mine now.
 
LUKE said:
Do you include winning the Champion Chase in his dicking around period.
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I think you are struggling to read Luke

I said they wouldn't have been bothering with 2m5f races had he been a true 3 miler

the whole nature of the game is to step horses up to their optimum trip..particularly when that trip is where the big prizes are

i assume you believe that when a horse wins at 3 miles at kempton it could do exactly that at a course like Chletenham

which seems to be your arguement..then again..i don't really know what your argument is based on cryptic one line comments;)
 
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Euronymous said:
Not to mention the Tingle Creek. Horses acquire more stamina as they get older and slower anyway. I'd target Kauto Star at the Whitbread if he were mine now.
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i'd read my post again..i never mentioned 2 miles

yes they can get slower later on..but that slowness usually means they win lesser races at further..not Grade 1 chases
 
Euronymous said:
The most notable exception to that being the horse you first name checked.
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would disagree..i can't see how you can slow down and win a Grade 1 at further..he just stayed the 3 miles at kempton when asked..he was never asked to stay it at a stiff track though

you yourself are saying you would aim KS at a whitbread..which isn't as difficult as winning a GC..so you aren't wanting to aim him at a higher class race at further..you are allowing for him deteriorating to win a handicap off a mark lower by some way than his highest mark.

yes I know there isn't a higher class race at further..but if there was..it is highly unlikely that KS would win a grade 1 at 3m5f
 
The bottom line about Long Run and his stamina "issues" is that most second season chasers are going to have that question mark going into a Gold Cup. The only exceptions to that rule being a Denman type, and horses like that are few and far between:<3:

Imperial Commander had similar question marks to answer this time last year.
 
yes I know there isn't a higher class race at further..but if there was..it is highly unlikely that KS would win a grade 1 at 3m5f
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What would beat him? hypothectical of course (and thats not the name of a horse)

yes they can get slower later on..but that slowness usually means they win lesser races at further..not Grade 1 chases
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Moscow flyer did

Desesrt orchid too
 
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