Road to the Gold Cup 2011

Kempes and Tidal Bay amoungst others have been put up as decent EW horses for this race but are we not ignoring the blindingly obvious 33/1 shot Neptune Collognes. Nicholls intends to run him does he not? He's only 10 years of age with one careful owner.:whistle:
 
On The Bridle said:
Kempes and Tidal Bay amoungst others have been put up as decent EW horses for this race but are we not ignoring the blindingly obvious 33/1 shot Neptune Collognes. Nicholls intends to run him does he not? He's only 10 years of age with one careful owner.:whistle:
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I don't fancy Neptune at all against Tidal Bay... and I'm not certain Tidal Bay is good enough to win.:)
 
It's immaterial whether or not Tidal Bay is good enough to win - the real question is 'if Tidal Bay was good enough to win would he be arsed to put the effort in or would he throw in the towel??'
 
The real, real question is "Will Tidal Bay tail himself off 25 or 30 lengths before consenting to stay on?".
 
Hamm said:
Your posts seem to get worse and worse. Would you say the same thing about Kauto Star as he was beaten in the Haldon Gold Cup?
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Considering how much bilge you post - especially about Sizing Europe - that is a bit rich coming from you :lol:

As for KS he was beaten by Monkerhostin in 2005 - he won the GC in 2007 .
 
rorydelargy said:
I don't deny that his record looks patchy when taken overall - I was arguing about your assertion that he goes off the boil when not racing. His record after a 60+ day break reads as follows: 1111211
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His cheltenham record is also exemplary. Can't be bothered to check right now but I think his only defeat at the course came in a 3 mile novice chase, probably after less than 60 days break.
 
Ardross said:
As for KS he was beaten by Monkerhostin in 2005 - he won the GC in 2007 .
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Thanks for proving my point. You seem to suggest that because Long Run was beaten in a Paddy Power (off a higher mark than KS in that Haldon I believe), he can't possibly win a Gold Cup, yet you have answered my question showing otherwise. Whilst it is unlikely he will ever attain the heights Kauto has, he has been a better horse at every stage of his career than Kauto was at the same ages. A major, major contender for the Gold Cup.
 
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I'm with Hamm - Dismissing him on his two Cheltenham runs would be stupid.

This year could be an interesting Cheltenham for Nicholls... His dominance could be over...
 
Hamm said:
Thanks for proving my point. You seem to suggest that because Long Run was beaten in a Paddy Power (off a higher mark than KS in that Haldon I believe), he can't possibly win a Gold Cup, yet you have answered my question showing otherwise. Whilst it is unlikely he will ever attain the heights Kauto has, he has been a better horse at every stage of his career than Kauto was at the same ages. A major, major contender for the Gold Cup.
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Being a little cheeky here, but you could also draw parallels between the 2 in terms of suitability to Cheltenham - Kauto Star missed his novice event at the Festival dues to a fall, and then took a purler on his debut at the meeting the following year. He was also considered a 2m specialist. Not the pattern of a future Gold Cup winner, surely? :p
 
rorydelargy said:
Being a little cheeky here, but you could also draw parallels between the 2 in terms of suitability to Cheltenham - Kauto Star missed his novice event at the Festival dues to a fall, and then took a purler on his debut at the meeting the following year. He was also considered a 2m specialist. Not the pattern of a future Gold Cup winner, surely? :p
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Indeed!

Do you remember for quite a long time everyone was saying he wasn't a Cheltenham horse? Funny now when you think about it.
 
Or more accurately.........if a tree falls in the forest, and no-one is there to witness it, will Tidal Bay still finish a fast-diminishing 10L behind it?
 
The Gold Cup should suit Tidal Bay very well. It will be interesting to see how many of the better fancied contenders he splits up for places.
 
SteveM said:
The Gold Cup should suit Tidal Bay very well. It will be interesting to see how many of the better fancied contenders he splits up for places.
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I'm not so sure; there should be enough of a pace on that O'Regan won't want him to tail himself off too far or he just won't be able to get there. Interesting ride to have, Tidal Bay!!
 
Shadow Leader said:
I'm not so sure; there should be enough of a pace on that O'Regan won't want him to tail himself off too far or he just won't be able to get there. Interesting ride to have, Tidal Bay!!
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Yes. The pace is key for him. The faster they go the better, if of course he stays interested early on.
 
Hamm said:
Thanks for proving my point. You seem to suggest that because Long Run was beaten in a Paddy Power (off a higher mark than KS in that Haldon I believe), he can't possibly win a Gold Cup, yet you have answered my question showing otherwise. Whilst it is unlikely he will ever attain the heights Kauto has, he has been a better horse at every stage of his career than Kauto was at the same ages. A major, major contender for the Gold Cup.
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Hardly, the point was that Kauto Star had 18 months in between and by the time of the 2007 GC had carried all before him - Long Run has won a King George which was in essence a match as the rest of the field were ill or injured !

I do not fancy Long Run for the Gold Cup as I suspect he won't stay and is a better horse away from the track . I am quite prepared for the possibility that he is improving at a rate of knots and can be competitive - he is self-evidently a very talented horse but my opinion is based on the evidence- yours is on hope . It is that he needs to show much better form than he has ever done before at Cheltenham to figure and that although Riverside Theatre is a good horse the rest of the KG form is extremely dubious.

Rory- as I recall Kauto fell unsighted at the 2nd or 3rd - hardly evidence he did not handle Cheltenham :rolleyes:
 
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Bar the Bull said:
This is a joke, right?

King George finishers:

Long Run - yet to run
Riverside Theatre - beat a 2 miler in a race in which the main rival died. He would have been 4/6 to beat that field without Pride of Dulcote
Kauto Star - jumped like a goat with a low-grade infection. He ran like a horse with a low-grade infection. He had a low-grade infection.
Nacarat - required an operation after the race
Planet of Sound - also required an operation after the race
Madison du Berlais - last and pulled up on his two subsequent runs

Listen, the form may be solid. Long Run may be a Gold Cup winner in waiting*. But there is nothing in he performances or welfare of any of the horses since the race to suggest it is solid form.

* Long Run is not a Gold Cup winner in waiting.
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You missed out

Alberta's Run - pulled muscles in back
The Nightingale - finished distressed , heart problem diagnosed
 
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Hamm said:
What evidence is that? I suggest you read GHs post again.
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Your case is based almost entirely on the KG - as BTB points out nigh on useless evidence .

Long Run MAY be improving at such a rate that he will win the Gold Cup but that view is based on hope and an assessment of his potential not on what he has achieved so far least of all at Cheltenham.
 
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