Road to the Gold Cup 2011

I've been singing the praises of Peddlers Cross but after analysing his form I don't think he's run to mid 160's this season but he did prove he could quicken off a slow pace and trainer thinks he's special.

Menorah for those who think he has run to mid 160's (I dont) then you have to believe he's capable of running low 170's

Binocular's Christmas hurdle win is imo the best piece of form I've seen as Starluck who I think is a genuine 160 horse at that time of year was beaten with consummate ease and as he's being specifically trained for the CH, he definitely looks the one to beat.

Hurricane Fly - I just can't get a handle on his form but I do like the way he travels and would not be surprised if he was good enough despite some of the views about him.

Oscar Whisky - I rated him in the high 160's for his Cheltenham win over 2 1/2m but the form has taken a few knocks but I'm still convinced 2 1/2 - 3m will be his distance. A possible.

Khyber Kim - would be interesting if NTD could get him spot on for the day but age and preparation makes him one to avoid in my book.

Mille Chief - on my ratings he's the most progressive 2m hurdler i've seen this season but I only have him at 159+ maybe next year?

Although I backed Peddlers Cross e/way early - Binocular still looks the one to beat.
 
swedish chef said:
I've been singing the praises of Peddlers Cross but after analysing his form I don't think he's run to mid 160's this season but he did prove he could quicken off a slow pace and trainer thinks he's special.

Menorah for those who think he has run to mid 160's (I dont) then you have to believe he's capable of running low 170's

Binocular's Christmas hurdle win is imo the best piece of form I've seen as Starluck who I think is a genuine 160 horse at that time of year was beaten with consummate ease and as he's being specifically trained for the CH, he definitely looks the one to beat.

Hurricane Fly - I just can't get a handle on his form but I do like the way he travels and would not be surprised if he was good enough despite some of the views about him.

Oscar Whisky - I rated him in the high 160's for his Cheltenham win over 2 1/2m but the form has taken a few knocks but I'm still convinced 2 1/2 - 3m will be his distance. A possible.

Khyber Kim - would be interesting if NTD could get him spot on for the day but age and preparation makes him one to avoid in my book.

Mille Chief - on my ratings he's the most progressive 2m hurdler i've seen this season but I only have him at 159+ maybe next year?

Although I backed Peddlers Cross e/way early - Binocular still looks the one to beat.
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interesting analysis Chef :cool:
 
granger said:
Is this not the Gold cup thread?
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Thats easy - Long Run beats Imperial Commander, Diamond Harry, Kempes & Midnight Chase fight it out for 3rd - Denman finds the hill just too much this time. Kauto is pulled up and Tidal Bay doesn't get round. Pandorama is pulled up as Noel Meade just cant get his string right for Cheltenham again and the ground is used as an excuse.

And the real danger Riverside Theatre has to settle for winning the Ryanair but there's always next year.

Meanwhile in a garden in Limerick after 10 pints of guiness and 1/2 bottle of Irish whiskey, Charles Byrnes ignoring the advice of a leprechaun decides to partake in a game of Russian roulette.
 
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as Noel Meade just cant get his string right for Cheltenham again and the ground is used as an excuse.
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he dosnt get his team right becuase in general he keeps them on the go to long which is why normally he has a large amount of winners up to december then his totals start reducing come the new year

the weather this year though has stopped him doing that he is something like 30% down on the number of runners he normally has by this time of the year
by pure chance his team maybe fitter this year than in the past

Agree riverside theatre will win the ryan and long run has an excellent chance in the gold cup of beating imperial commander
 
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As someone said elsewhere, Denman's performance in The Hennessy was the best in a 3m+ chase all season. If the wind op has been anything like successful, he's a shoo in for a place and outstanding win value at c 8-1
 
Very Very Ordinary said:
As someone said elsewhere, Denman's performance in The Hennessy was the best in a 3m+ chase all season. If the wind op has been anything like successful, he's a shoo in for a place and outstanding win value at c 8-1
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I think some Long Run fans would not be agreeing

personally..a one paced 15 length drubbing in a handicap ain't getting my pulse racing tbh
 
Very Very Ordinary said:
As someone said elsewhere, Denman's performance in The Hennessy was the best in a 3m+ chase all season. If the wind op has been anything like successful, he's a shoo in for a place and outstanding win value at c 8-1
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On my ratings Denman ran to 178 in the Hennessy and Long Run 177+ in the King George - but again imo The Hennessy was the season target for Denman and was produced spot on. The race was one of the fastest run Hennesy's I can remember which was why I was looking at Burton Port as a value bet in the Gold Cup. I love Denman and was in his camp when he beat Kauto Star to win his Gold Cup but I saw signs in the Hennessy that it was one hard race too many at his age. If he wins then I guarantee it will bring a tear to my eye and I'll stand up and salute him but I see no reason why he should finish ahead of Imperial Commander. If I'm looking to get Imperial commander beat I have to look at a younger progressive chaser and Long Run looks a different horse this year - imo has the right profile even though he's been knocked on two bits of Cheltenham form where he'd had a long season going into the RSA and ran his first race of the season in the Paddy Power although I'm sure the King George was his first target followed by the Gold Cup.
 
This is the first year I don't really fancy anything to win the Gold Cup for as long as I can remember - probably since Mr Mulligan's year. They all have negatives . Which probably makes Imperial Commander the most likely winner.Kauto the horse I would love to see win.
 
Am I the only one who has a feeling (nothing else) that IC will be pulled up/run a stinker?
 
EC1 said:
I think some Long Run fans would not be agreeing/QUOTE]

I'm a Long Run fan and I agree... Denman has perhaps the best place claims of any horse running at the Festival at an each-way price... and I still believe he may well win it.
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Hamm said:
Am I the only one who has a feeling (nothing else) that IC will be pulled up/run a stinker?
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Not at all. Haven't we been saying this all along... he'll either be brilliant, as he was last year, or unplaced and beaten all ends up. Denman on the other hand looks gilt-edged for at least a place.
 
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Hamm said:
Am I the only one who has a feeling (nothing else) that IC will be pulled up/run a stinker?
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No. I too am braced for him not running well. I'm pretty convinced he'll win if running to within 5lbs of his best, though.
 
I think Denman is the one to beat this season.

I think without the run in the AON chase this season, and that he goes there fresh and in seemingly very good health, i think he will have a great chance. Sam Thomas is going to ride him too, which i think is an excellent aspect.

Denman's run in the AON chase didn't help him at all last year, and his performance in the Hennessy this season, was a very good run.

There is one horse that i dont know what to make of in terms of his chances in the Gold Cup this season, and that is Long Run.

His King George win was very impressive, he jumped better than he has done previously, and he won in very good fashion.

However, i keep going back to his run in the Paddy Power. Yes, it was over 2 miles 5, and yes, he was giving a lot of weight away to Little Josh and Dancing Tornado, who finished ahead of him that day.

Im sure the extra distance at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup will help him. It is just a little more difficult to assess how good last season's Royal Sun Alliance Chase was -

Weapons Amnesty has been out for the season
Burton Port ran a very good race in the Hennessy but has been injured since
Knockara Beau and Punchestowns haven't been that impressive.
 
ho ho... I'm very happy for people not to be backing Denman. I intend to supplement the 12s I've already taken by going large on course... with the proviso it is weighted to the place;-)
 
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:p Peerless intuition… it’s useless trying to hide anything from you. I think he might win you know.
 
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