I think I'm going to go for Kempes. I've learnt before not to doubt yourself and go elsewhere only to see your initial pick win, so I'll stick with it. Having looked through its race, I don't think it's got the strongest form by any means, but the horse has plenty of plus points. For one, he jumps very well, other than his mistake when he unshipped AP at Leopardstown I can't think of any others at all and that one at Leopardstown was probably just a fluke too, he didn't seem to take off at all. He will certainly stay based on his wins over 3m in very soft or heavy ground, so the extra 2 furlongs shouldn't be too much of a problem to him in better conditions. Am I right in saying Leopardstown is a pretty tough track with a fairly sharp uphill finish? It's hard to tell from the videos but if so I wouldn't think Cheltenham would pose him too many problems either. Having watched his last few races the thing that struck me was the lack of pace in the races and I was beginning to think he wouldn't have enough toe as they're sure to go a good gallop tomorrow, but then I looked at a piece of form he had over hurdles at Punchestown where he was second to Hurricane Fly and beat horses such as Riverside Theatre and most notably Go Native. He must have plenty of toe in fairness to be able to run second in that company, so I wouldn't be worried on that front. I thought he was unlucky the day he unseated AP at Leopardstown in the Lexus, as he was going nicely and just starting to come into the race. It's hard to tell but races take some winning there and I've a feeling he'd have gone mighty close to beating Pandorama as when he won there last time out he stayed on strongly up the hill from a similar position. Baring in mind that was ground soft ground (ideal for Pandorama and not Kempes) then he ought to have the beating of him here, and another he should have the beating of is China Rock. As far as stats go he's the right age (between 7 and 9), has run between 2 and 6 times this season, has 6 or more starts over fences and he's won a graded chase this season, all stats which seem to lead to Gold Cup winners. His form certainly isn't the strongest is the race, and isn't good enough to win a Gold Cup at this stage, but he's certainly looked on the upgrade of late and will surely improve again with the better ground?
As for the other contenders, Denman was the other one who stood out to me but I just can't have him winning this because horses are never supposed to regain Gold Cups. Kauto being the only one to do it in all these years, so I just can't imagine another will do it again so soon. I think he'll run another grand race and be placed though, preferably behind Kempes
Imperial Commander would of course be the other main danger to Kempes' chances, but his Betfair win didn't impress me greatly, and his preperation doesn't sound to have been as good as last year's. The people who watched his Kempton gallop didn't sound all that impressed either, so I'd have to take him on. Based on Cheltenham form and last year's he should really win, but I can't get overly excited about the horse personally.
Kauto would be an ideal winner for me, I'd love him to bounce back and do it but I just can't see that either. Long Run isn't my idea of the winner based on Cheltenham form, Carruthers isn't good enough and I don't think Neptune Collonges is either, he couldn't win it before so why would he now? What A Friend is a funny horse and not one I imagine is good enough. Pandorama would be of interest if the ground came up Soft but it would probably have to rain from now until the race for that to happen. Weird Al is an interesting runner but on all known form wouldn't be good enough. Midnight Chase will probably make the running with Carruthers and I'd be surprised if he could win but stranger things have happened.
Lastly, the weather. Having looked at the weather it seems to suggest lots of rain (a bit like last year) and that could play into the hands of the likes of Denman, Imperial Commander and Pandorama, but looking at some webcams from Cheltenham it doesn't seem to be raining at the minute.
I'll certainly be waiting till the first race or two has been run before placing my bet, but at this stage all things considered I fancy Kempes to win it for Willie, JP and AP.
