Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Cantoris said:
As I've said, its the excuses on the day they dont win that are as important as information on when they might win.
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A good point. I was only thinking about that today when Dare To Doubt won. A friend of mine saw her in the unsaddling area in Limerick with blood coming out if her nose the day she was beaten when odds on. I think I posted it on here at the time.
 
On The Bridle said:
It was the first thing that came into my mind when he arrived at the second last! Cantoris has put us away again!!!!!!
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:lol: I can do no more than say it the day before he runs!! Can't be havin ya takin the owners price (16/1 I believe :mad:)

Bit like the bumper horse in Down Royal when I said I'd changed my mind!! Ya gotta read between the lines. It is a public forum after all. Anyone could be looking in. :ninja:
 
Cantoris said:
Hamm, did Long Run not look a little slow in the Betfair? Scrubbed along from a long way out just to keep up?
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Apart from when all the people you are well-connected with tell you something, I think you know very, very little about horse racing. Your mantra is everything Colm Murphy = good, everything else bad.
 
Hendersons comments yesterday clearly indicated that they were expecting better from Long Run. I think he was more tuned up for the race than many have assumed.

The fact that he was "scrubbed along" when he was has rattled them a little bit.
 
Long Run has comfortably ran above what he did in his first run last season, little to worry about for me.
 
Hamm said:
Long Run has comfortably ran above what he did in his first run last season, little to worry about for me.
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...Long Run put up a really tough performance given that he looks sure to come on again and considering Kauto was deemed to run to something like 180.
 
I'm not sure that Henderson was ever expecting Long Run to perform better than 180 in this his seasonal reappearance. The only thing that caught him out was that Kauto ran better than he and almost everyone else was expecting.

If Kauto had run to what 99% of people were expecting Long Run would have won.

It's no disgrace to be beaten by a 180 performance at any time, let alone in a race they thought he would need.

I expected Long Run to win before the race, but if you had asked me if I thought he would have to run better than 180 to win I'd have said no.
 
I think fitness and form-wise there's little doubt Long Run will come on for the run as least as much as he did last season, which should be sufficient for the KG and GC (barring more scarcely-credible heroics from Kauto). My main concern would be with his jumping. NH and SWC have made no secret of the fact that they've put a LOT of work in on Long Run's jumping, with regular, recent and intensive sessions with Yogi Breisner, yet it didn't take that much pressure for him to make a succession of jolting mistakes. He never looked like falling but he was certainly knocked out of his rhythm. He ran on admirably, those mistakes considered, but in my mind it begs the question - what more can they do to improve his jumping, or do they just leave well alone and trust to his engine at full fitness being enough to compensate for any similar errors he might make in the future?
 
Can go over and over this but Henderson's comments would worry me. Cruella is right though and this is most significant. As is often the case too, his jumping went wrong when out of comfort zone. Allwed to bowl round then hes fine, but with Master minded also in the KGV field, hes could again feel the pace. At 6/4 he has to be taken on
 
Again, lets look at his jumping in a more measured way... last year's Gold Cup broke the track record, hence they couldn't have gone any faster, and he won that by a good margin - a bad jumper cannot win a Gold Cup and break the track record, hence he cannot be, in terms of jumping, taken out of a perceived comfort zone. He has always taken a chance at a few, and probably always will, but in the main he jumps very well, and should improve for this run, both in terms of fitness and jumping.

I am with Grasshopper on Master Minded - doubtful stayer.
 
I'm not worried about Long Run's jumping. He jumps well in the main. Like any horse that his not fully fit they'll guess at one or two when put under pressure.

I thought he ran a good race in defeat in the Paddy Power on his reappearance last season (when his jumping was also criticised)... Saturday's performance was better than his performance in that.
 
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Cantoris said:
:lol: I can do no more than say it the day before he runs!! Can't be havin ya takin the owners price (16/1 I believe :mad:)

Bit like the bumper horse in Down Royal when I said I'd changed my mind!! Ya gotta read between the lines. It is a public forum after all. Anyone could be looking in. :ninja:
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:lol: There are modern means of communicating....text I believe one of them is called :whistle:
 
A lot of the evidence points to Long Run outstaying them in the GC last year but that is not backed up by what happened in the King George as he won easily there.

Long Run clearly has an engine but he needs a clear run to beat Kauto if he is at his peak and jumping well.
 
Hamm said:
Apart from when all the people you are well-connected with tell you something, I think you know very, very little about horse racing. Your mantra is everything Colm Murphy = good, everything else bad.
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I was expecting a better retort than that. Did I say anything about any horse being a bad one? I was merely pointing out that he was pretty one paced from a long way out on Saturday (a fine one paced it was too). Wouldn't want to be doing that from 12 out in the Gold Cup or QDLR might pass him :lol:

Hamm said:
Again, lets look at his jumping in a more measured way... last year's Gold Cup broke the track record, hence they couldn't have gone any faster, and he won that by a good margin - a bad jumper cannot win a Gold Cup and break the track record, hence he cannot be, in terms of jumping, taken out of a perceived comfort zone. He has always taken a chance at a few, and probably always will, but in the main he jumps very well, and should improve for this run, both in terms of fitness and jumping.
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Of course, he could have gotten lucky with his jumping in the GC last year. Didn't put a foot wrong if I recall. By your own admission, that is not the norm as "he has always taken a chance at a few". It's not easy pulling it all together for one big day.
 
Cantoris said:
I was expecting a better retort than that. Did I say anything about any horse being a bad one? I was merely pointing out that he was pretty one paced from a long way out on Saturday (a fine one paced it was too). Wouldn't want to be doing that from 12 out in the Gold Cup or QDLR might pass him :lol:



Of course, he could have gotten lucky with his jumping in the GC last year. Didn't put a foot wrong if I recall. By your own admission, that is not the norm as "he has always taken a chance at a few". It's not easy pulling it all together for one big day.
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He made at least 2 noticeable errors in the Gold Cup, one where SWC did well to stay on.

It was his seasonal debut, one which he improved from what he ran fto last year.

I don't understand when you say he is one paced - the horse has wona Kingmaker and could have run in the Arkle as much as the RSA (would have been too sharp, but still says something he was near top of market).
 
del boy said:
Count yourself lucky, its often a very expensive text....
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I don't know why you just don't charge up front like one of those sex lines as anyone who rings you gets absolutely no pleasure and it ends up costing them a fortune!!

Del Boy - 1898 EMPTY POCKETS LOSING DOCKETS

(Costs may vary :- €50 snoops every 20 seconds - calls from mobiles may be higher)
 
On The Bridle said:
I don't know why you just don't charge up front like one of those sex lines as anyone who rings you gets absolutely no pleasure and it ends up costing them a fortune!!
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There speaks the voice of experience.:)

Re Long Runs jumping - it's fine to make the case for his improving his jumping for the run, the fact is he'd jumped like a crab (an uncompetitve Kingmaker apart) in all his early races until Yogi took over prior to the King George, and it was that, and his adaption to the English style of racing - rather than fitness - that seemed to make the difference. Was also intensively schooled before the Gold Cup, yet still reverted to type in his first run this season.
Maybe those who think it was just fitness would care to explain why connections thought it necesary to have Yogi Breisner heavily involved again in the run up to Saturday?
 
Because of the effect Breisner had for the KG and the Gold Cup - not exactly rocket science!
 
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