I’ve looked at the race a couple more times and Long Run’s jumping is actually not just okay but particularly good for the most part. He makes a lovely shape with his back and stags most (being described as “accurate and nimble”). When jumping alongside Kauto down the back he was visibly out-jumped a couple of times which upset his rhythm (at 8, 7 and 6 out) causing him to lose a bit of ground. But significantly he was able to come back and even though finally cooked, was able to put in some mighty leaps… I’d be worried about many of them in terms of jumping before Long Run.
Road to the Gold Cup 2012
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
If you take his run on Saturday in isolation and showed it to someone, they might think he is one paced.....albeit a good one-paced. He did travel in the Paddy Power last year, if I recall correctly. So if you are using that to say he will improve, then how did he race in it?
Like most champions that get beaten early the following season, you make excuses for their runs if you like them, and you dis them if you dont. I neither like not dilike Long Run. The champs sometimes improve from their first run and sometimes they don't. Sometimes they never produce the same again just because of circumstances when they won....Binocular, Master Minded, Hawk Wing etc etc.
The cheek, I gave you a winner the last time!!
I don’t get this point... Hawk Wing not only improved as a 4yo on what he had done at two and three, but put up one of the greatest all-time rated performances from any thoroughbred at a mile. Master Minded and Binocular are still in training… who knows what they might still do.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Cantoris' point may be that Long Run put up an all-time best performance in the Gold Cup. As did HW in the Lockinge, Master Minded in the first CC and Binocular in his CH. None of those three have yet emulated their finest hour. Maybe LR will be the same.
If that is not his point, I apologise for putting words in this mouth.
Incidentally, I think LR is being written off far too soon. But at the same time I think people assuming he will find his feet again may be in for a shock. We have been spoiled with horses like Big Buck's, Kauto Star etc. remaining at the top for so long.
If that is not his point, I apologise for putting words in this mouth.
Incidentally, I think LR is being written off far too soon. But at the same time I think people assuming he will find his feet again may be in for a shock. We have been spoiled with horses like Big Buck's, Kauto Star etc. remaining at the top for so long.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,012
Long Run doesn't flow over a fence in the manner of a truly great steeplechaser. I've followed him since his days in France, and in terms of his races over fences, his jumping can generally be described as "fine". No more, no less. He has routinely taken a cut at fences, and is plenty bold enough, but (in my - possibly controversial - opinion) he meets too many on the wrong stride.
He's nimble and/or clever enough to get himself out of trouble when this happens, but this tendency doesn't do him any favours. Whilst those who have supported SWC all long can (I guess) rightly claim the moral high ground by dint of his performance in the King George & Gold Cup, I'd still like to see how Long Run performs under professional handling. For all that Sam Waley-Cohen is perfectly competent, professional jockey have better clocks in their heads, and day-in-day-out experience of racing over fences. Presenting a horse correctly is a key attribute in a jump jockey, and I think SWC is at a disadvantage in that regard, against his paid peers.
I don't really have any axe to grind against SWC, and think he's earned the ride on merit (whereas perhaps I thought previously earlier in LR's career), but - from a purely academic standpoint - I wouldn't mind seeing whether a top jock wouldn't squeeze a few more lbs out of him.
I had a long look at the Gold Cup market yesterday, and - for the first time in my life - I've backed Denman for the race. If Nicholls can get Kauto in that kind of shape for the Betfair Chase, there's a reasonable chance he can get Denman ready ok for the Lexus. If he can get Denman within a half-stone of his Cheltenham form, he will hose-up at Leopardstown, and be a single-figure price for the Gold Cup.
I just need to hope that SteveM doesn't bogey him like usual.
He's nimble and/or clever enough to get himself out of trouble when this happens, but this tendency doesn't do him any favours. Whilst those who have supported SWC all long can (I guess) rightly claim the moral high ground by dint of his performance in the King George & Gold Cup, I'd still like to see how Long Run performs under professional handling. For all that Sam Waley-Cohen is perfectly competent, professional jockey have better clocks in their heads, and day-in-day-out experience of racing over fences. Presenting a horse correctly is a key attribute in a jump jockey, and I think SWC is at a disadvantage in that regard, against his paid peers.
I don't really have any axe to grind against SWC, and think he's earned the ride on merit (whereas perhaps I thought previously earlier in LR's career), but - from a purely academic standpoint - I wouldn't mind seeing whether a top jock wouldn't squeeze a few more lbs out of him.
I had a long look at the Gold Cup market yesterday, and - for the first time in my life - I've backed Denman for the race. If Nicholls can get Kauto in that kind of shape for the Betfair Chase, there's a reasonable chance he can get Denman ready ok for the Lexus. If he can get Denman within a half-stone of his Cheltenham form, he will hose-up at Leopardstown, and be a single-figure price for the Gold Cup.
I just need to hope that SteveM doesn't bogey him like usual.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Pandorama out for season. 
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/smart-chaser-pandorama-out-for-the-season/951074/latest/
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/smart-chaser-pandorama-out-for-the-season/951074/latest/
Summed up much more eloquently than I would have said.
Grassy, did you think it was a good bit of riding by Ruby down the far side to push SWC into the corner? He nearly hit the upright at the side of the fence and just about made it. I don't think a professional would have taken then inside line with Ruby in front. I too have no axe to grind with SWC. He's better than some professionals!!
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Take a look at Kauto's last Gold Cup run, Oran. He wants to be ridden up with the pace these days, and it was a smart move on Ruby's part to send him on. As for SWC's attempted move up the inner, the door was asking to be shut, though I don't think Long Run lost any real momentum, so whether it constitutes a "mistake" or not, I'm not so sure. I wouldn't judge him too harshly for that myself.
Maybe there's nothing to my theory anyway. Maybe there's nothing wrong with the way SWC presents the horse at a fence? Maybe he presents him perfectly every time, but Long Run is an inherently careful jumper? He will never be jocked-off anyway, so the point is moot.
Going back to Kauto Star, what a sight it would (and hopefully will) be to see him run at Kempton at Christmas, in a bold bid to make all. I think he's overall a better jumper when ridden prominently these days (maybe losing concentration when amongst horses?), and he would get a right few of them at it (not least his stablemate - sorry Bar) if he was allowed to bowl along.
Maybe there's nothing to my theory anyway. Maybe there's nothing wrong with the way SWC presents the horse at a fence? Maybe he presents him perfectly every time, but Long Run is an inherently careful jumper? He will never be jocked-off anyway, so the point is moot.
Going back to Kauto Star, what a sight it would (and hopefully will) be to see him run at Kempton at Christmas, in a bold bid to make all. I think he's overall a better jumper when ridden prominently these days (maybe losing concentration when amongst horses?), and he would get a right few of them at it (not least his stablemate - sorry Bar) if he was allowed to bowl along.
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davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
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Any horse that jumps as well as Kauto Star is best ridden up with the pace, use the ground he makes up at obstacles to his advantage, instead of seeing him make up ground and then getting restrained back. Of course it means the jockey has to judge the pace to perfection. I think Ruby went for home too soon in the Gold Cup and a race-fit, sharp Long Run and Denman made him pay the price. I suspect he went a bit too soon on Saturday, but on the day had enough in hand to get away with it.
Indeed, in the 2010 GC he made that terrible mistake because they were not going anywhere near fast enough for him . That knocked him completely out of his rhythm and led to that horrible fall.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think MM's win at Aintree in April wasn't that far behind his first Queen Mother, which was overrated at the time.
I had a long look at the Gold Cup market yesterday, and - for the first time in my life - I've backed Denman for the race. If Nicholls can get Kauto in that kind of shape for the Betfair Chase, there's a reasonable chance he can get Denman ready ok for the Lexus. If he can get Denman within a half-stone of his Cheltenham form, he will hose-up at Leopardstown, and be a single-figure price for the Gold Cup.
I just need to hope that SteveM doesn't bogey him like usual.
Welcome to the fold… I hope you haven’t missed the boat with him. At 12 it will surely be the triumph of hope against experience. But as his racing will be kept to a minimum and as he’s likely to be in peak condition for the race and as he’s freely available at 25/1, I’d say go for it… I have… although in my heart of hearts I’d be pleased to see him get round and placed.
I expect Long Run to take a deal of beating this time, he jumps well enough as far as I'm concerned. Whoever wins they will need to run to 180 to have a chance (maybe Denman still can on the day, he's certainly one of the few that ever could).
Last time I thought Denman might win and the two times before that I thought he would win. This time I’m less certain, but I'm not going to leave the 25/1 alone.
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I was referring to a text from OTB. A text from you is like the winning numbers for the Monday Millions.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Of course he will find his feet again. He is a young chaser. Still only six, rising seven. This is not a loss of form. He's been beaten into second place by a 180 performance (or whatever it was) by one of the best horses to have graced the turf since Arkle. By the end of the season people will be questioning the idea that he ever lost his feet.
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EC1
On a break
where is the 180?..is this RPR TF or OHR..on official ratings through Weird Al its more like 175
EC1
On a break
i prefer to work off OHR's Steve..i know where i am then..there are about 3 sets of ratings quoted on teh board and as we have said before some seem 7lb higher than others
175 OHR is an exceptional effort first run..in fact i'll bet not many horses have ever done that on their seasonal run
Steve comes back with..Denman has
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Hawk Wing, too.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Timeform have KS at 178 for Saturday. Last year he ran to 168 but if he'd not clouted one near the end of the race he'd have run to a higher rating in the King George than that. He's basically a stone off his very peak which wolud be curtains for a normal animal but a 190 monster can still win Grade 1's such is the buffa he enjoys.