Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Steve, I go back to my point earlier, all of the horses you've listed, including Kicking King, have won graded chases over shorter than 3 miles, some have won graded hurdles races as well. The typical profile of a GC winner these days is one who doesn't tackle 3m until towards the end of their novice chase season and have usually shown good form over shorter.

Quito, if you take my view, doesn't have the profile of a typical GC winner.
 
Only one out and out stayer (ie a boat) has run into a GC place since 2007. Mon More. Thats one in 15 places. Not great. Allied to that, talk here is as if this horse will be the one and only in the race with that profile. Not likely either

5/1 ???
 
The issue is surely whether "out and out boats" can win on quick ground over 3m at Aintree, clivex?

I think people are being too quick to define Quito as some flat-foot, stamina-laden, heavy-weight grinder. Whilst it's true he stays really well, I don't think he's quite as one-dimensional as many are trying to make out.
 
Grassy
Just how much do you expect the horse to improve for his first run?
The horse was outpaced from a long way out at Down Royal, and will meet a much better field on likely much better ground at Cheltenham, so just where is he going to find all this extra pace from, do you sugggest?
 
reet hard said:
Grassy
Just how much do you expect the horse to improve for his first run?
The horse was outpaced from a long way out at Down Royal, and will meet a much better field on likely much better ground at Cheltenham, so just where is he going to find all this extra pace from, do you sugggest?
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I'm not entirely certain that he will, reet. I just think it's too early to suggest that he can't. Again, I have no direct contact with the yard, but when I'm told before race that the horse is short of work, it makes me approach the subject of possible improvement with an open mind. I've no idea how much he will find next time. Maybe 3lbs, maybe 6lbs, maybe nothing.

But even if he does not go on from that run, it's not like he's run to 135 in the Nicholson. He's probably put up something like 158, which is verging on high-class, and even that may be a touch parsimonious. He could very well get done for toe in a Gold Cup, but take out Kauto and Denman on account of age, and where are all the other 160+ horses who truly get a stiff 3m2f? I can't find very many, and would rather have a confirmed stayer onside, than one with a sexier profile but with stamina questions. It's an attritional race, and I'll line-up behind the ones which are certain to get home insofar as the place market is concerned.

Mon Mome comparisons are a little rude, imo. He's much more like Dorans Pride.
 
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Sheikh said:
Nah Geraghty was riding like a mug at the time and just made it look that way, when Geraghty left him alone in that Gold Cup he cruised.
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No way - KK was out cold on the run in that day , he won because he was different class not because he stayed - the field was very weak that year after Best Mate broke a blood vessel in the run up .
 
Ardross said:
No way - KK was out cold on the run in that day , he won because he was different class not because he stayed - the field was very weak that year after Best Mate broke a blood vessel in the run up .
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'Out cold' ! He sauntered home, the proverbial 'wet sail'

Took keen hold, mid-division, headway 12th, tracked leaders next, went 2nd 18th, led approaching 3 out, ridden when challenged 2 out, ran on strongly run-in
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He followed that up 'not extended' at punchestown on soft.
 
Kicking King was top class, but like Imperial Commander and Long Run it's lucky he didn't run into Denman when he was at his peak. It bugs me that that trio are all rated higher. He'd have pulverized them all.
 
Euronymous said:
Kicking King was top class, but like Imperial Commander and Long Run it's lucky he didn't run into Denman when he was at his peak. It bugs me that that trio are all rated higher. He'd have pulverized them all.
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Yes it annoyed me that TF rated Long Run above anything Denman had achieved in his career after the latest Gold Cup.

I wrote at the time:

Timeform shoots high with Long Run
AS IMPRESSIVE as Long Run was in winning this year’s thrilling renewal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, are we really expected to believe Timeform’s figure of 184, which places him joint seventh on Timeform’s all-time list. This means that the six-year-old has not only bettered Denman in this year’s renewal, but has run to a higher rating than Denman in his prime, when beating Kauto Star in the Gold Cup and winning his second Hennessy off 182 – one of the great weight-carrying performances of modern times.

We can console ourselves that the Official ratings have them equal on respective best marks of 182 and the RPRs have Denman a pound superior in terms of relative best performances.

Best RPRs:

Denman 184
Long Run 183
Imperial Commander 182
Kicking King 177
 
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Exactly. At his best Denman was like the steeplechase version of Frankel. He took animals out of their comfort zone. Long Run made the odd mistake last year when the pace was relatively smooth and was ridden some way out. He would never have got near an 8yo Denman.
 
Euronymous said:
Denman was like the steeplechase version of Frankel.
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Well put... you won’t get an argument from me. But we’re preaching to the converted in telling each other this… When you’ve seen a horse this good it takes a lot to impress you about others.;)
 
Lads, Denman was a great Gold cup winner but was punch drunk crossing the finishing like - that does not make an amazing Gold Dup winner, especially with the stellar Netune Collonges 7 lengths back...
 
clivex said:
Only one out and out stayer (ie a boat) has run into a GC place since 2007. Mon More. Thats one in 15 places. Not great. Allied to that, talk here is as if this horse will be the one and only in the race with that profile. Not likely either

5/1 ???
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Harbour Pilot, Sir Rembrandt, Truckers Tavern?
 
It was one of the best Gold Cup performances I've seen... Neptune ran a very big race that day and was himself a good Gold Cup type.
 
reet hard said:
Grassy
Just how much do you expect the horse to improve for his first run?
The horse was outpaced from a long way out at Down Royal, and will meet a much better field on likely much better ground at Cheltenham, so just where is he going to find all this extra pace from, do you sugggest?
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Sharpness was the problem. he just wasn't in great form as he was pushed hard to get there. I can give you a different example, we decided after Brave Inca's novice season that he needed to be fit as a flee to take on the big boys the following season. So he was super fit on the run up to his first race and then he just fell apart the week before the race. Mentally, he was gone. He finished secons to Macs Joy that day, off the bridle the whole way. We took a different approach after that, but it does show that its not all about fitness. Its about well being.
 
Denman was sent for home too soon when he won the Gold Cup. I don't remember the exact details, they are in his C&H essay but he covered part of the race quicker than they did the same section in the Grand Annual.
 
I better, more experienced jockey certainly wouldn't have been rowing away as early as Thomas did. He obviously got caught up in the moment.
 
Hamm said:
Lads, Denman was a great Gold cup winner but was punch drunk crossing the finishing like - that does not make an amazing Gold Cup winner, especially with the stellar Netune Collonges 7 lengths back...
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It's a shame he didn't have a Nacarat doing the donkey work for him.
 
where is there evidence that Denman would pulverise Long Run or any of others mentioned

please don't bring Henessey into it;)..Denman was built to carry weight
 
Kauto Star hammered Denman 13 and also lost by 7 when he hit lots of fences..when Denman lost he didn't really have much of an excuse..yes he didn't seem himself that year but some of that is based on his Kempton run which is a course he hated

how does that prove Denman would hammer Long Run..particularly when on top of that Long Run has met and beaten Denman by 7 himself
 
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