Road to the Gold Cup 2012
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
EC1
On a break
so they were wrong to run him then?
surely if he was suffering the effects of that it would have killed him
at his best he beat KS 7 lengths..KS didn't jump well at all....with Neptune backing up the fact that KS ran below his best...also HG supports that
Neptune Collonges would be at very best a 168 horse
so how does that run make Denman a far superior horse to LR
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It was a Gold Cup run at a very gentle pace. I'm sure he'd have been pulled up if they'd gone hell for leather up front.
Kauto was put under the sort of pressure he couldn't handle on that course on stamina sapping ground. That led to jumping errors, mistakes that were the result of Denman taking him out of his comfort zone.
Lastly, and DJ has already covered this, In that 2008 renewal Denman jumped the third last, Sam looked behind him, saw Ruby at it on Kauto and got lost in the moment and went for it way before he needed to. In contrast check out Barry Geraghty on Finian's Rainbow in the Arkle. He looked behind him after jumping the third last, saw all his rivals pushing away but kept hold of the horse. Now I know he didn't win the race but that was the way Thomas should have ridded Denman once it was clear he was going beat of all. If he'd taken that course of action I'm certain he'd have won by a wider margin.
EC1
On a break
thats a lot of assuming though Euro..don't forget that when he went for it he would have covered more ground at that point than just sitting there..ground he would have had to make up late on in your stting scenario.
We are talking about energy left 3 out and the difference between using it then or late..i doubt very much that Denman's actual postion would have been lengths better had he sat..because its easier to go for it on the downward section of a race and take a good few lengths off the oppo at that point..in your scenario he would have sat on the downhill section and asked on the uphill section.
AP has said that in many races he prefers to kick on on a downhill section as its easier to take more lengths out of the oppo at that point. When racing uphill that same energy goes less far.
I love both Denman & KS by the way..but i do think the Denman fans get a little carried away tbh
EC1
On a break
Would that be the race where Colm Murphy said he was delighted with the horse, and thought he'd run a blinder?
Truth is, Mac's Joy confirmed that form twice more that season, and it wasn't until ridden more aggressively (in the Champion Hurdle) that Brave Inca was able to reverse it
Would that be the race where Colm Murphy said he was delighted with the horse, and thought he'd run a blinder?
Truth is, Mac's Joy confirmed that form twice more that season, and it wasn't until ridden more aggressively (in the Champion Hurdle) that Brave Inca was able to reverse it
You see, there's the fundamental problem. Macs kept beating him because he wasn't right, well being wise. After that, we eased up too much on him and he lost his fitness. He was in the best shape of his life (fitness and well being) at Punchestown that year against Harchibald. but the general public doesn't know that. They think Brave Inca was spot on for his second and third run....NOT. When he won the Champion Hurdle he was over the top, but who knows that? Only time I saw him sweat up. But does the general public see that. No, because he won. Look at Big Zeb in the Tingle Creek. People said he could only win soft Irish races and wasn't good enough for a QM. Before and after the race. But the general public don't know the horse. He simply wasn't right and I went out on a limb then to say it. I believe QDLR simply wasn't right at Down Royal. In fact I said to Grey before the race that if he finished in the three it would be a good run. As I said with Big Zeb and I'll say it with QDLR, all I can do is share some insights. He may still not win the Gold Cup, just like I said Big Zeb might not win the QM. But he shouldn't be dismissed so hastily......and no-one yet has been brave enough to offer me my place odds!!
Would that be the race where Colm Murphy said he was delighted with the horse, and thought he'd run a blinder?
It was effectively a two horse race!! I don't remember those comments but maybe he did, maybe he didn't.
05Nov04 Down royal ( 16 Sft ,RPR152 )
I´m delighted with that performance. We were giving Macs Joy 10lb and that was some achievement. After all it was his first run since last season and he should have come on a ton from that. He is in the Hatton´s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse at the end of November and after that we´ll see what happens. He is a horse who goes in any ground and I was a little wary that today´s going might be a bit too soft. But Brave Inca ran a blinder - trainer, Colm Murphy Source; RP Quotes.
I´m delighted with that performance. We were giving Macs Joy 10lb and that was some achievement. After all it was his first run since last season and he should have come on a ton from that. He is in the Hatton´s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse at the end of November and after that we´ll see what happens. He is a horse who goes in any ground and I was a little wary that today´s going might be a bit too soft. But Brave Inca ran a blinder - trainer, Colm Murphy Source; RP Quotes.
I thought your quote was before racing i.e. he thought he would run a blinder in the race, which he prob wouldn't have said given the gallop he did the week before. The post race comment is ok. He did run a blinder as we knew he wasn't right.
I see the Gold Cup as follows ...
Long Run is out on his own, but maybe (his GC performance) was not quite as good as some organisations suggested (although excellent)
Time for Rupert is slow
So is Quite dlr, but he will at least stay all day. The Welsh National, or maybe even Aintree would be ideal.
Diamond Harry is probably banjaxed
Weird Al is interesting, although I suspect his small bubble will be burst Saturday
Boston Angel is a forgotten horse and a better one than QDLR. Definitely a lot of e/w mileage in his price
Captain Chris cannot at this point be considered as he is probably 3/1 to even be targeted at the race
Conclusion - Long Run should win comfortably, as we are missing the horse with the profile of a typical second season chaser with speed, unless that horse is Captain Chris (and he stays).
Long Run is out on his own, but maybe (his GC performance) was not quite as good as some organisations suggested (although excellent)
Time for Rupert is slow
So is Quite dlr, but he will at least stay all day. The Welsh National, or maybe even Aintree would be ideal.
Diamond Harry is probably banjaxed
Weird Al is interesting, although I suspect his small bubble will be burst Saturday
Boston Angel is a forgotten horse and a better one than QDLR. Definitely a lot of e/w mileage in his price
Captain Chris cannot at this point be considered as he is probably 3/1 to even be targeted at the race
Conclusion - Long Run should win comfortably, as we are missing the horse with the profile of a typical second season chaser with speed, unless that horse is Captain Chris (and he stays).
Yes, but that is the exception rather than the rule e.g. horse doesn't eat up after winning and comes out three days later with a fixed penalty (the obvious thing to do) and all the punters want to back it (obviously) but connections think the last race might have taken its toll (understandable as he didnt touch his food when he normally licks the pot), but it still wins handy.
However, I know owners with horses in four or five different yards and there are things I know about both their own horses and their trainers other horses that the public couldn't possibly know. This has been very useful from a punting perspective, and one of the reasons I don't bet (except the odd fiver here and there on a saturday) other than on horses where I have an inside line, and then I go heavy simply on the basis that I am getting value. Where others see a nought, I know there was a reason. Horse should be 5/1 and is 12/1. The Hard Hat is a perfect example from last season. Overpriced the two days he won after running in mid field the previous times when there was an excuse. 7/1 and 10/1. It doesn't always work but....
Sheikh
At the Start
True Cantoris, on the other hand, a stable could go through the whole book of excuses before they come to the conclusion that a horse is not up to the job.
Is that not dependent on motives? If you only have 10 horses in a yard with 20 empty boxes, you will probably try to hold onto the horse for as long as possible i.e. make up plenty of excuses. If you have 20 boxes and are full, there is an incentive for a trainer to get out the bad ones to make way for the good ones. Also, if you know your trainer well, you generally know the score. Particularly if they know you will go again.
Also, when I'm talking about excuses, these are often ones that are put forward before the race e.g. trip is too short but no other race to run in for three weeks. Runs down the field, then comes out over preferred longer trip, on right ground, and wins. I much prefer to know the excuse before the race!!
Sheikh
At the Start
Yes, Sounds like a plan not an excuse.
Like you say if you know the trainer, you know the score also.
Depends if your trainer is Charles Byrnes or Jessica Harrington, Tony Martin or Paul Nolan etc etc
granger
Senior Jockey
I get what you mean, but assuming the info is correct you can never have too much of it. The trick is in getting right how much significance to attach to each bit.
I hope some read between the lines and back him yesterday. 8/1. 16s in the morning. I got cold feet and went for 4s without two. Ran on good ground in Punchestown and needed the run at Galway. Over 2m6f on soft to heavy ground. In he pops again. As I've said, its the excuses on the day they dont win that are as important as information on when they might win.
On The Bridle
At the Start
It was the first thing that came into my mind when he arrived at the second last! Cantoris has put us away again!!!!!!
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
No - though it is always possible to read too much into what each bit of information is Luke.