Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Long Run (11/4) , Kauto Star (5) , Grands Crus (8) , Synchronised (14) , Time For Rupert (20) , Captain Chris (25) , Diamond Harry (25) , Weird Al (25) , Albertas Run (33) , Big Bucks (33) , Jessies Dream (33) , Magnanimity (33) , Mid Dancer (33) , Punchestowns (33) , Quito De La Roque (33) , Rubi Light (33) , Bostons Angel (40) , Michel Le Bon (40) , Quel Esprit (40
 
Euronymous said:
Awesome news. With Kauto, Syncronised and Grands Crus in the race we should get a better price on the winner.
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I have only been able to watch the KG on a television tonight rather than an iphone. Kauto was dossing in front from the second last and received two slaps only just to wake him up after the last . Long Run was out on his feet after the line. The prices of the front two in the market are plainly the wrong way round.
 
SteveM said:
While popular opinion is about 60-40 against Grands Crus running in the Gold Cup (according to an RP poll), one of his owners (Roger Stanley) maintains he is 70-30 more likely to run in the Gold Cup than the RSA.

I hope he doesn’t make the mistake that that Terry Neill made in insisting his brilliant Gloria Victis be pitched in at premier level. I’d go for the RSA this time. Even the great steeplechasers such as Denman have used the RSA as a stepping stone. It’s true that the RSA in a hard enough race in itself, but the Gold Cup is another level. I’m with Ardross that novices should be restricted to novice races.
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Not just Denman but also Arkle ! Pipe appears to have thrown some cold water on the owner today.
 
SteveM said:
I hope he doesn’t make the mistake that that Terry Neill made in insisting his brilliant Gloria Victis be pitched in at premier level.
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I can't accept it was a mistake to run him in the Gold Cup any more than it was a mistake to run any horse in the race they got injured in. It wasn't like he was pushed too far, his performance proved he was good enough and McCoy is adament he went wrong prior to jumping the fence. Unfortunately it was just one of those things we sadly have to accept, it could have happend in any race or even on the gallops at home. I have no problems with novices entering championship races if they are good enough, it's not like they they have never won before.
 
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Zenyatta said:
QDLR is a slowboat and I can't see him running well in the GC at all. He'll be out of his comfort zone from the word go and he'll never been able to stay close enough to make use of his undoubted stamina up the hill.
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A lad who would know the horse well said to me yesterday that while he doesn't think QDLR is proper Grade 1 class, he said you won't know until he is flat out from flag fall. Neither of the two races he's run in so far have been at a decent clip. As he said, if QDLR is travelling a mile out, they've gone too slow.
 
Hamm said:
I couldn't work out why they didn't try and make the pace with him?
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Some baffling tactics by some of the main protagonists in the big races. The above and Thousand Stars - both should have made their own pace. Holding up TS against that opposition was senseless.
 
DukeofMarmalade said:
I can't accept it was a mistake to run him in the Gold Cup any more than it was a mistake to run any horse in the race they got injured in. It wasn't like he was pushed too far, his performance proved he was good enough and McCoy is adament he went wrong prior to jumping the fence. Unfortunately it was just one of those things we sadly have to accept, it could have happend in any race or even on the gallops at home. I have no problems with novices entering championship races if they are good enough, it's not like they they have never won before.
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He was certainly good (in fact brilliant) and was giving his all when he came down despite being at his extent. He would have almost won. However, another year would have made him stronger, more experienced and better at using himself. This is why we have novice races so that good horse can learn the ropes in their own company. If a horse as brilliant as GV came to grief trying to match seasoned chasers anything short of his ability (which is virtually everything) shouldn't be asked to risk it.
 
Cantoris said:
A lad who would know the horse well said to me yesterday that while he doesn't think QDLR is proper Grade 1 class, he said you won't know until he is flat out from flag fall. Neither of the two races he's run in so far have been at a decent clip. As he said, if QDLR is travelling a mile out, they've gone too slow.
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Interesting. You would have thought that Davy Russell would just jump off, give him a thump in the belly, gallop flat out and see if anything could get past him. He's never going to win a decent race by doing anything else because he has absolutely zero ability to quicken.

To see him at his best Russell probably needs to be riding a finish for the whole race. :p
 
Euronymous said:
Awesome news. With Kauto, Syncronised and Grands Crus in the race we should get a better price on the winner.
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Do you think Long Run is that much of a certainty?

I absolutely agree that he is the most likely winner but I'm not so sure he's as home and hosed as people think. A lot will depend on the make-up of the race, the ground and so on, but I can certainly envisage a scenario where I would far rather be with Kauto again.

For example, a small field, a weak field, no front runners and good ground, all entirely plausible. I'd be disappointed if Ruby couldn't win in those circumstances.

I must admit I thought the 5/1 about Kauto with Stan James was outstanding. He won't run again so the only chance you're taking is him making the race. If he does then he can be no bigger than 3/1 surely?

Long Run on the other hand is due to run in 'the Denman'. He won't be suited by a prep race (poor field, no pace, etc) so I can easily see him being unimpressive and that might lead Kauto to shorten up some more. The Nicholls hype machine will be in full flow and by mid March there will be plenty brainwashed into thinking Kauto is a certainty.
 
And now look what's happened?!

In trying to justify why Kauto Star is a good bet at 5/1 the price has now gone. Best priced 9/2. :rolleyes:
 
Long to run without earplugs

Long Run is likely to be without earplugs when he bids to defend his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown in March.

Trainer Nicky Henderson revealed his team have worked hard getting the top steeplechaser to relax, but that they may have overdone it, and having twice suffered defeat at the hands of Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase and King George VI Chase this season, connections are considering changing one or two things in the hope of reversing the form in the blue riband.

Henderson told At The Races: "We have spent a lot of time settling him down and have always run him in earplugs. That helps him through the preliminaries and everything else, but we've probably decided to take them out now because he is very relaxed and possibly a little bit over (relaxed)."

He added: "We will be changing a few things but I don't think we will be taking Kauto Star on up front. We are hoping that the extra distance at Cheltenham and the hill are what are going to save us."

Henderson confirmed that Long Run could have a prep run for Cheltenham in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury next month.

"I think the Denman Chase is a possibility. It would do him good to have another run," the Seven Barrows handler added.

"He's come back from the King George in great form and one's assuming Kauto is not going to go there. I wouldn't want another battle with him on the way - two is enough so far.

"I'd be inclined all being well to go there. It might be a bit ground dependent. If all's well in a fortnight's time, there's every chance he'd go there."
 
Captain set Festival acid test

How Captain Chris performs in his next race will determine whether he lines up in the Ryanair Chase or the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.

Philip Hobbs' charge won the Arkle last season but has endured an interrupted campaign this term, unseating Richard Johnson in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance and missing the Peterborough Chase due to an unsatisfactory scope, before finishing a fine third in the King George on Boxing Day.

The handler told At The Races: "I think he's got a lot to prove as yet. His runs in the spring last year were a big improvement and we were pleased with his comeback in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, even though he unseated."

He added: "The only disappointing thing in the King George was he's normally a horse who jumps and travels very well and he didn't do either, although he stayed on all right.

"The finishing position was satisfactory but throughout the race he didn't nearly perform as well as normal and we're hoping that he maybe wasn't quite A1 - although we wouldn't have run him if we didn't think he was.

"The (Gold Cup) trip is a bit of a concern but he's a better horse on good ground, which is likely at Cheltenham, although finding it before then is the problem. He also has a slight inclination to jump slightly to his right, he doesn't lug right during the race.

"But, having said that, it was a very good performance in the Arkle so it's a minor disadvantage. You would want everything in your favour for a Gold Cup, though.

"The Ryanair is definitely an option and I'd very much like to run him beforehand as that will tell us which direction we are going to go.

"He has three options. The Argento at Cheltenham, the Aon (Denman) Chase at Newbury or the Ascot Chase over two-five."
 
SteveM said:
I've backed Long Run again at 11/4. He's the likeliest winner for me.
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Kauto for me .

I liked that joke in the RP the other day - in the summer many people called for Kauto to be retired - now only Nicky Henderson and the Waley Cohens want him to be retired !
 
Ardross said:
Kauto for me .

I liked that joke in the RP the other day - in the summer many people called for Kauto to be retired - now only Nicky Henderson and the Waley Cohens want him to be retired !
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:lol: ...wouldn't it be great if Kauto could do it.
 
SteveM said:
:lol: ...wouldn't it be great if Kauto could do it.
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Kauto definitely can do it. ;)

P.S. For those interested in my full thoughts on the race please see my Blog. Link is in my signature.

Edit: In fact here is a direct link to the post. That should make things easier!
 
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That is an interesting blog, Zen.

There really seems to be a paucity of contenders outside the big two. Should they be shorter?

I have backed Quel Esprit at 40/1 to win. He had a confidence booster a few weeks back, and I see he is scheduled for another at the weekend.
 
Can see Syncronised and Kauto being a lot shorter on the day. I think the bookies will try and get Long Run - especially as a small field trial will not show him in his best light. I'd like to think 7/2 might be possible on the day if the Nicholls/McCoy hype factor goes into overdrive.
 
Bar the Bull said:
That is an interesting blog, Zen.

There really seems to be a paucity of contenders outside the big two. Should they be shorter?
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Thank you Bar. Much appreciated.

I think there is a fair argument to say they should be. A bit like in the King George, whilst Long Run is the most likely winner, I don't think there should be such a price discrepancy between the 'big two'. Long Run at 11/4 or 5/2 looks fair but I would have Kauto Star nearer the 3/1 mark. I really do think the 9/2 is terrific, especially as he can only shorten as the big day approaches.

The prospect of Long Run being unimpressive in his trial is very real as far as I'm concerned and that could even lead to Kauto challenging for favouritism, especially once the Nicholls preview/hype machine hits top gear.
 
By the way, I noticed last night that Ladbrokes are going NRNB on the four main championship races at the Festival rather than just the World Hurdle. I've gone in with some solid positions.

Great opportunity to back the likes of Captain Chris (for example) for both the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. Even if he goes for the Ryanair you'll get funds back to reinvest.
 
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