Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Bar the Bull said:
Hamm.,

If you look back at the Talking Horses blog on the guardian.co.uk website there was a week in September where they went through the Nicholls stable tour; something like 20 horses a day. It should come up on a search on their site.
Click to expand...

Thanks Barry, much appreciated.

Here are the links if anyone else wants a look:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/sep/05/horse-racing-live-5-september-2011
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/sep/06/paul-nicholls-live-racing-september-6-2011

The horse I was looking for Nicholl's comment on was Mon Parrain. I think he could win the King George.
 
Hamm said:
The horse I was looking for Nicholl's comment on was Mon Parrain. I think he could win the King George.
Click to expand...

I think he heads to the Paddy Power first, Hamm, and if Nicholls leaves Poquelin in there, he'll have next to no weight to cart.

I agree that he is very promising, but confess I'm a bit shocked that you personally see any challengers to Long Run at Kempton.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
I think he heads to the Paddy Power first, Hamm, and if Nicholls leaves Poquelin in there, he'll have next to no weight to cart.

I agree that he is very promising, but confess I'm a bit shocked that you personally see any challengers to Long Run at Kempton.
Click to expand...

You know what I think of Long Run and that hasn't changed. However, he is no price for the King George at this point in time (could well be a bet on the day, who knows).

I haven't been taken by a horse since Long Run like I was with Mon Parrain at Sandown. I've rarely seen a horse jump so well - it was breathtaking. He seems to have a great engine, and I still don't know, even off 149, how he didn't win. I had a huge bet on him that day, and remember he traded something silly after the second last.

He has reportedly strengthened up, and being only 5, is entitled to do so and improve. He should be stronger at the business end of a race, and I would be disappointed if he isn't a 165+ chaser. He stayed 3m around Sandown, and should stay it better this year.

He's a bet at 5s for the Paddy Power if all is well with him, but the bigger prices for the King George are also worth a bet for me.
 
Jumps well and was giving plenty of weight to the winner in the Topham. Clearly precocious, but we have to go back to 1950 to find a 5yo winner of the KG and the stable has said that talk about him as a Grade 1 horse is premature. 25/1 would probably be right on the day, but not ante-post. I doubt he’ll line up, to shoot him straight from handicap company into the KG doesn’t look right for such a young horse.
 
The inference in your post was that he was beat at Sandown, but I concluded you must have been talking about the Topham when Always Waining reeled him in.

Dunno about the PP/Hennessy double, Slim. Massive ask for a 5yo.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
The inference in your post was that he was beat at Sandown, but I concluded you must have been talking about the Topham when Always Waining reeled him in.

Dunno about the PP/Hennessy double, Slim. Massive ask for a 5yo.
Click to expand...

Sorry BTB - can see I missed out bringing the Topham in (he ran off 133 at Sandown I believe).

Don't think the Hennessy is the race for him at all. Paddy Power, then King George for me. If he were to win the Paddy Power off 149, where else could he go?
 
He jumps so economically that Cheltenham could really suit as well. I agree re the Hennessy - he'd be outstayed by a classy second season chaser off of 11 and change.
 
The last time I got a hardon watching a horse was Mon Parrain at Sandown. The day I backed Master Minded at Aintree, I had MP in a double with MM, as well as a nice single bet.

It was a brilliant day, but it could have been best ever. Seeing him fold up the elbow was a bit tough.
 
I don't think he folded. He was a 5yo given a battle hardened Aintree specialist more than a stone. He did better than Long Run on his last start when the same age.
 
Grasshopper said:
The inference in your post was that he was beat at Sandown, but I concluded you must have been talking about the Topham when Always Waining reeled him in.

Dunno about the PP/Hennessy double, Slim. Massive ask for a 5yo.
Click to expand...

Was Celestial Gold a 5yo?
 
Bar the Bull said:
Fold or whatever, I don't care. Fucker cost me a grand +.

I still think he is a savage horse, though.
Click to expand...

I won't forget that day in a hurry either. I had mentally banked quite a bit of cash 2 out and felt uncomfortable with life for the rest of that afternoon.
 
Last edited:
I think PP runners are re-assessed before the Hennessy, Slim. Celestial Gold won at Cheltenham of a rating of 136, but was off 142 at Newbury, suggesting he was running off a revised mark.

If Mon Parrain wins at Cheltenham off 152, you'd have to think he would be pushing 160+ when re-assessed. Hard enough to see how he could win from a mark like that, given his tender years.
 
Last edited:
There's no penalty-carried in the race result....not that that necessarily makes a difference.

Call it 152 +6lbs if he wins then. A bit more managable, but still........
 
Penalties for Hennessy are after November 6th, a winner of a chase 4 lb, of 2 chases 7 lb.

Timeform Perspective references Celestial Gold being 3 lb well in for the Hennessy compared to official mark under a 6 lb penalty for Paddy Power win.
 
Euronymous said:
I don't think he folded. He was a 5yo given a battle hardened Aintree specialist more than a stone. He did better than Long Run on his last start when the same age.
Click to expand...

...well he did fold but I'd agree with you, it was understandable that he did.
 
davidjohnson said:
Timeform Perspective references Celestial Gold being 3 lb well in for the Hennessy compared to official mark under a 6 lb penalty for Paddy Power win.
Click to expand...

I take my hat off to you. That is one of the finest pieces of after timing I've ever seen on the forum.
 
Back
Top