Think you can upgrade Ruperts run yesterday as he looked burly to me and the fact him and Nacarat were taking each other on for the best part of 2 miles won't have helped thought they were both cutting each others throats the way it went. Nacarat was out on his feet at the end.
Road to the Gold Cup 2012
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
TFR bouncing after the race and has passed all his vet tests. He'll come on a ton for that. Just need to stay away from Long Run until they have to! Donald appears to have his horses well primed first time out, and will be watching Weird Al next race closely.
granger
Senior Jockey
TFR going for the betfair?
Trainer says he's more likely to go for that than carry a big weight in the Hennessy. Great early season clash with Long Run if both line up - possibly Diamond Harry as well if nothing too serious.
Bring it on!
granger
Senior Jockey
swedish chef
At the Start
Nice graduation chase at Kempton tomorrow featuring Somersby (possible Gold Cup contender) and Aiteen Thirtythree (my idea of the Hennessy winner if the ground is testing.)
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Surely Somersby is a cracking bet at 4/6 against Aiteenthirtythree who needs further and softer ground?
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Can't see past Somersby either.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Imagine Denman running in a race like that in his first year in open company - would he have been any more impessive? No. TfR strikes me as a similar type. But the trainer does worry me. It's like if you're a top yard with loads of horses you just enter them in the most appropriate races, you just get on with it. When you have one star in the stable I think trainers over think it. The Hennessy is the ideal race for the horse, it's not like his rated in the mid 160s like Wishfull Thinking.
rorydelargy
At the Start
If I recall, Denman was marginally more impressive on his first outing in open company.
:lol::lol:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It wouldn't have been if it been in a small field Charlie Hall. That was my point.
rorydelargy
At the Start
It was desperately bad point, to be fair.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I don't see how. It's not like PN would have had him fully wound up.
TFR strikes me as a horse who would look better in a small field, and just looked slow. I don't buy this will come on for it. Why wouldn't every other horse in the race, Weird Al had no fitness edge. Plus he was getting weight from the winner too.
rorydelargy
At the Start
I'm not trying to be funny, but claiming Denman would have been beaten in the Charlie Hall is a ridiculous argument. Had he been really unfit, then he may not have won, but the state of fitness of a make-believe horse is not something to hang an argument on. There must be a few second-season chasers who've been workmanlike on their return only to go on to win the Gold Cup, and using their (actual) performances would make a coherent argument. Denman is the worst horse you could possibly have used. Even Arkle would have been a better choice FFS!
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Looks Like Trouble was only third in the Charlie Hall the season he won the Gold Cup as a second season chaser.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Denman's record when not fully primed is average at best
I didn't say he'd have been beaten either, just that he wouldn't have been any more impressive looking than Rupert was on Saturday (I'm pretty sure even a half fit Tank could have handled Ollie Magern)
With his previous 6 runs at Cheltenham, 5 of them over 3m or more, the new, sharper Wetherby was never going to be a sufficient test for TFR (which is probably why they elected to make the pace), and with trainer and paddock judges adamant he needed the run you'd expect better from him in future.
Jmo, but I think he'd be much better aimed at the Hennessy, rather than the Betfred Bowl.
Jmo, but I think he'd be much better aimed at the Hennessy, rather than the Betfred Bowl.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Denman's form did tend to tail-off after Cheltenham, there's no doubt, but he was pretty-much a model of consistency the rest of the season, Euro.
If he could win a Hennessy off top-weight, he would almost certainly have been able to win a Charlie Hall under much-better-than-handicap terms.
The track would perhaps not be all in his favour, but there's nothing else in his record to suggest he wouldn't be straight enough first-time-out.
As far as TFR is concerned, he was entitled to blow-up (which I think he did), and he too perhaps wasn't quite as well suited to Wetherby as he might be elsewhere. I thought it was a taking run as far as it went, and will be looking to keep on the right side of him. Avoid Long Run, and there's room for a progressive second-season-chaser to put his stamp on some good races; Time For Rupert can still fit that bill, imo.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Are you thinking of the same Denman?
Record after 100+ days as follows:
1st in the Hennessy
1st in the Hennessy
2nd in AON Chase (a moderate run after heart surgery)
3rd in the Hennessy
2nd in the Gold Cup.
Not that the argument is about Denman at all, but you're clearly talking nonsense. Mr Johnson has provided the answer you should have looked for.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nicholls had Denman hard primed and ready for the Hennessy in a way he surely wouldn't have for a Charlie Hall. If Webber had intended for TFR's first run to be at Newbury he wouldn't have carried the same condition as he did on Saturday.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Just admit that you made a tit of yourself for using the best-fresh Denman as an example of a horse who would have struggled to win a Grade 2 chase at Wetherby in receipt of weight, and we can move on, eh? You know it makes sense. 