Road to the Gold Cup 2012

Fair points chaps and not particularly elegant prose on my part.

Let me take a different tack. I don't believe QDLR is quick enough to win a Gold Cup. I couldn't entertain backing a horse that was easily left behind by a couple of Grade 1 (Not novice Grade 1) horses over 3 miles on soft ground. Yes he got up to win but that seemed more down to Sizing Europe and The Nightingale cutting each others throats and the race falling apart than him outstaying them. Neither are the stoutest stayers either.

Most recent winners of the GC such as Kauto, Denman, War of Attrition, Kicking King, Best Mate, have won graded races over shorter than 3 miles and I really believe that unless it comes up soft/heavy you need plenty of pace to win. I just don't see him getting into the race until its too late and on that basis could never back him to win.
 
QDLR was not right at Down Royal. He only won it because the others stopped. I agree there. I am not using Down Royal as a form line, I'm suggeting that if he improves the amount he should from that, it makes him interesting as he won despite being off.
 
Aragorn is spot on but improve? what he has to improve on is his speed and whilst horses may improve stamina, jumping and attitude, speed is a different matter. How many gold cups have been won by horses seriously outpaced a mile out? Pulled up is usual result

But can see him winning a whitbread
 
clivex said:
Aragorn is spot on but improve? what he has to improve on is his speed and whilst horses may improve stamina, jumping and attitude, speed is a different matter. How many gold cups have been won by horses seriously outpaced a mile out? Pulled up is usual result

But can see him winning a whitbread
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Fair summary
 
clivex said:
How many gold cups have been won by horses seriously outpaced a mile out?
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Granted not many. But there's plenty that have stayed on to reach a place as horses that have tried to go with the principals have faded out of it. Even just recently names such as Mon Mome and further back the likes of Sir Rembrandt, Truckers Tavern. Even Beef or Salmon was once a grossly flattered fourth, beaten just three and a half lengths.

None of which actually means I fancy Quito De La Roque to be anything but a bit-part player in a Gold Cup.
 
11 previous runnings of the Champion Chase at Down Royal

33 placed horses

just 1 went on to win the GC that season..Kicking King..who came 2nd at DR

1 from 33..not really a good indicator of a GC winner ..for me anyway

anyone think Quito is as good as KK?
 
Yes DJ but that means taking 5/1 now about a possible place for a horse that may easily be diverted to a more suitable target. Pretty crap really...
 
EC1 said:
11 previous runnings of the Champion Chase at Down Royal

33 placed horses

just 1 went on to win the GC that season..Kicking King..who came 2nd at DR

1 from 33..not really a good indicator of a GC winner ..for me anyway

anyone think Quito is as good as KK?
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Has the Down Royal race always been so high profile?

I have heard of it for a few years...maybe since Kauto went over but I haven't heard of it much before and I got heavily into racing in 1988?

Has prize money always been high and the best horses running there?
 
Looks like Trouble won it when he was the reigning champ but there's been some ropey winners as well. It's a race that hasn't been run enough to betoo dogmatic as to it's proper value.
 
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clivex said:
Yes DJ but that means taking 5/1 now about a possible place for a horse that may easily be diverted to a more suitable target. Pretty crap really...
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I'm happy to take those odds if anyone is offering. Plan on backing him each way so saves me the win bet. Anyone game?
 
YearWinnerAgeJockeyTrainer
1999 Florida Pearl 7 Paul Carberry Willie Mullins
2000 Looks Like Trouble 8 Richard Johnson Noel Chance
2001 Foxchapel King 8 David Casey Mouse Morris
2002 More Than a Stroll 10 Conor O'Dwyer Arthur Moore
2003 Glenelly Gale 9 Conor O'Dwyer Arthur Moore
2004 Beef or Salmon 8 Timmy Murphy Michael Hourigan
no race 2005 [1]


2006 Beef or Salmon 10 Andrew J. McNamara Michael Hourigan
2007 Taranis 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2008 Kauto Star 8 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2009 The Listener 10 Andrew J. McNamara Nick Mitchell
2010 Kauto Star 10 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2011 Quito de la Roque 7 Davy Russell Colm Murphy


Florida Pearl, Looks Like Trouble, Beef or Salmon twice, Kauto Star twice, The Listener have between them won seven of the previous eleven races. It is usually a very good race. It is not a trial for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, it is rather an early season opportunity for some of the best horses around.
 
Interesting debate, gents.

Whilst I have some sympathy with the doubters, I do think it's dangerous to write off QDLR as nothing more than a dour stayer. Horses who win G1 novice chases over 3m at Aintree on quick ground tend not to be Welsh National types.

At the very least, QDLR should be given the benefit of the doubt on that score; not least because the Aintree form is, imo, easier to have faith in.

Having missed Cheltenham, it's a reasonable bet that QDLR was trained to run his race at Aintree, whereas as it wasn't necessarily the case at Droyal. I backed QDLR ante-post, only to have my card marked too late by someone close enough to the yard tell me he had missed work. As we know, he was a fortuitous winner, but the run was in the manner of a horse who woukd assuredly improve for the outing - even if he'd ended-up a dozen lengths third.

IMO, he is far and away Ireland's best chance in the Gold Cup, and I confess I'll be quite disappointed if he doesn't win one or other of the Lexus or Irish Hennessy on the way to a big run at Cheltenham.

For all that Cantoris prays at the Murphy shrine (:D) I believe he is right in this instance - 5/1 would be a Backers price in a Gold Cup place market
 
I would have thought that he would have faded away when off the bridle if he was due to 'improve for the outing" so much, not running on
 
Difficult to believe it was lack of fitness that caused QDLR to be rowed along from a mile out, particularly when the trainer said he'd had to knock spots off the horse to get him ready for the race.
He also said that he'd look for a 5 mile race for the horse, which tells more about his Gold Cup chances than an Aintree race 2 stone below that standard.
 
reet hard said:
Difficult to believe it was lack of fitness that caused QDLR to be rowed along from a mile out, particularly when the trainer said he'd had to knock spots off the horse to get him ready for the race.
He also said that he'd look for a 5 mile race for the horse, which tells more about his Gold Cup chances than an Aintree race 2 stone below that standard.
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Sharpness and wellness, not fitness (other than improving for the run). If you saw him in the parade ring, you would not have been impressed. Like Big Zeb in the Tingle Creek when it was clear he wasn't right (run coming too soon for him after winning in Navan), I just get the impression that it was all a bit rushed and not the plan.

If nicholls came out and jokingly said they were looking for a 5 mile race for Denman, would you think the same way? Clearly Denman stays forever and its one of his fortes. It's a figure of speech, just like Halford said "ride him like a non-trier" when his horse won was a figure of speech. It's not meant literally. We all know QDLR's strong point is his stamina.
 
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Quito's form will be tested if Sarando runs in the Hennessy. If he runs well Quito's form will look stronger but i'm not sure he beat much last year even if that one did win well first time out this season. Golan Way was only 3 lengths behind in 3rd that day at Aintree and he would be a million to one in the GC. His Irish form is so so, he beat Western Charmer the same distance in May as he did earlier in the season so I wouldn't have said he improved for better ground in the spring.

I can see him running into a place but I would not want to back him e/w at the prices now and to be honest I don't expect him to be that much shorter on the day if he does turn up.
 
EC1 said:
...anyone think Quito is as good as KK?
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...no reason why he shouldn't be. What he may lack in turn of foot he makes up for with relentless toughness. He's got quite a big couple of seasons ahead of him I reckon.
 
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