Road to the Gold Cup 2012

I was in the airport last night coming back from Cheltenham and had my first look at the antepost market for the Gold Cup. 20/1 Quito with Hills looked big. It looks like the options are (1) go with the champ (2) go with the old timers (3) go with last years novices. If we knock out (2) as its highly unlikley they will regain their crowns at this stage, and (1) because, well, you just have to (:ninja:), that leaves the young brigade. I don't see why Quito de la Rocque should be a bigger price than any of last seasons novices given he is confirmed to get the trip and like the stiff track. The only doubt re whether he would have the gears on good ground seemed to be allayed a little with the wins in Aintree and Punchestown. Murphy has already won two of the three championship races (i'm a traditionalist Champion, QM and Gold Cup). Could he make it a hat-trick? At 20/1 each way, its possible.
 
What are everyones faults in Long Run?

We surely have to break down this horse and analyze the problems in his make up that will allow another horse to take advantage?

Personally, I was there to see him at Kempton on his debut and he looked nothing, went to see him win the Gold Cup and the improvement was miraculous and to consider further improvement on his phsyique, mentality and jumping ability is unthinkable it really is - we could be in the presence of something great.
 
Hamm said:
He lacks gears and will be badly outpaced around 12 out.

Looks a national horse.
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Hamm, its a long way to Cheltenham. Do you really want to do this all over again. I'd have thought you'd have learnt from the last time :lol:
 
I analyse every horse on it's merits. I don't back a particular trainer, so have an advantage over you this way (for example, you have said you will back Voler in the Hatton's Grace yet you have no idea of her odds - makes little sense to me).

QDLR is slow, but a dour, fine stayer. Nothing wrong with that, but not in a million years will he win a Gold Cup.
 
Hamm said:
I analyse every horse on it's merits. I don't back a particular trainer, so have an advantage over you this way (for example, you have said you will back Voler in the Hatton's Grace yet you have no idea of her odds - makes little sense to me)..
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You might have an advantage, but maybe I'm just smarter ;)

As for Voler, I expect her to be fairly priced. She is no talking horse, no real article. That's why she started at 2s against the Willie Mullins hound yesterday. She is consistent but not a talking horse and will always be priced fairly.

Hamm said:
QDLR is slow, but a dour, fine stayer. Nothing wrong with that, but not in a million years will he win a Gold Cup.
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I'll say one thing, you are consistent in your view of QDLR. If you search quito in the threads and see your comments from Jan, you compared him to Pandorama and said he might carve out a little niche for himself on heavy ground. QDLR has already done something Pandorama hasn't....won a race on good ground.
 
Has won 2 Grade 1's and a Grade 2 in a row now and is clearly on the up. If he gets to Cheltenham he wont be 20/1 on the day

Cantoris, Why did he miss Cheltenham last season?
 
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Cantoris said:
You might have an advantage, but maybe I'm just smarter ;)

As for Voler, I expect her to be fairly priced. She is no talking horse, no real article. That's why she started at 2s against the Willie Mullins hound yesterday. She is consistent but not a talking horse and will always be priced fairly.



I'll say one thing, you are consistent in your view of QDLR. If you search quito in the threads and see your comments from Jan, you compared him to Pandorama and said he might carve out a little niche for himself on heavy ground. QDLR has already done something Pandorama hasn't....won a race on good ground.
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Look, don't try and turn it into an argument - all i can do is say what i think. I have little bias and rarely sit on the fence.
 
reet hard said:
Aye, but it was hardly against Gold Cup horses
I'm with Hamm on this, QDLR will need a bog to even place at Cheltenham.
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I don't doubt that there are certain challenges which QDLR has to overcome, not least a fast pace on good ground in the Gold Cup. But he is far better on good ground than Pandorama was/is. The latter cannot win on anything other than soft ground. Its like Beef or Salmon at Cheltenham.....just not going to happen. All I'm saying is that QDLR has won on good ground and plenty thought he had no chance at Aintree because of the ground. I think he could surprise a few people and you can ignore his win in the north as he wasnt right.

I suppose I look at Bostons Angel and wonder why he is shorter in the betting than QDLR. Or any of the novices from last year, in fact. If Long Run turns up in last years form, he wins. But the old brigade are very vulnerable.

Of course, if your view is that strong, I'd be happen to have 6 bananas to 1 banana on him in the place market with you.
 
I place laid QDLR at Aintree and was fairly amazed by his performance.He deserves to be aimed at the Gold Cup.I'd be surprised if he didn't win another grade 1 this season.
 
He's the sort who could run a big race in the Gold Cup if things went his way. He certainly has ability given his conditions and is able to slug it out (unlike some) in good company.
 
SteveM said:
He's the sort who could run a big race in the Gold Cup if things went his way. He certainly has ability given his conditions and is able to slug it out (unlike some) in good company.
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I once thought Denman was not slick enough to win a Gold Cup. Ground came up right for him the day he won it but he still managed placed efforts on quicker ground. So it is dependent on the horse and how it jumps. The problem with a lot of these slower types of horses is when they get to the quicker ground Gold Cup, their jumping falls apart. Beef Or Salmon and Pandorama are good examples. Denman, on the other hand, is well able to jump on quicker ground and that kept him alive. It will be the same for QDLR. If he jumps well enough, the ground is less of an issue. If he doesnt jump well, he'll need the ones in front to stop.
 
Cantoris said:
I once thought Denman was not slick enough to win a Gold Cup. Ground came up right for him the day he won it but he still managed placed efforts on quicker ground. So it is dependent on the horse and how it jumps. The problem with a lot of these slower types of horses is when they get to the quicker ground Gold Cup, their jumping falls apart. Beef Or Salmon and Pandorama are good examples. Denman, on the other hand, is well able to jump on quicker ground and that kept him alive. It will be the same for QDLR. If he jumps well enough, the ground is less of an issue. If he doesnt jump well, he'll need the ones in front to stop.
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I know what you mean and Quito is definitely the type of horse that could run well in a Gold Cup. Denman is deceptive though. Yes he is this type but he is (or perhaps was) more than this too. Denman could actually travel and his underlying speed was what carried him along in his Hennessys and took the others off their legs.
 
QDLR would never have finished 2nd in a neptune hurdle. Denman has more pace.

QDLR is a good horse and I love his attitude but he has plenty of improving to do before he will be winning a gold cup.
 
Aragorn said:
QDLR would never have finished 2nd in a neptune hurdle. Denman has more pace.

QDLR is a good horse and I love his attitude but he has plenty of improving to do before he will be winning a gold cup.
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This means nothing.

Every horse other than Long Run has a lot of improving to do.

Nearly every winner, every year, apart from defending champs have had a lot of improving to do.

If he didn't have a lot of improving to do, he would be 2/1.
 
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